Rove: 'Be careful' with polls; Carter once beat Reagan
Are the polls dishonest?
- Duration 5:27
- Date Sep 26, 2012
Are the polls dishonest?
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Announcement -- the top story tonight let's bring -- Fox News analyst Karl -- joins us tonight from Washington state Ohio Florida first do you believe the polling today.
No I don't.
And for very good reason let's take Florida first got the white board for you.
Little bit of context here.
The biggest poll we did the most important thing about a poll is its partisan -- matrix of the division between Republicans Democrats and independents.
The biggest -- -- we have to understand what the partisan matrix is about are the exit polls.
Florida had three points more Democrats and Republicans in 04 -- had four points less Democrats and Republicans more Republicans and Democrats voted no for.
You know all two point -- and Democrats.
The CBS New York Times poll has nine points more Democrats than Republicans do we really think.
The Democrat margin over Republicans in Florida is going to be three times what it was in 2008 that is to say do.
The Democrats are.
That much more wired up -- this time around that time I have around so that will actually oil it would let let me answer that in a logical question is.
And the New York Times didn't hide that data that data is -- when you look at the poll however.
CBS news I listened to -- AM on the radio every morning dated reports that some people -- know it unless they went themselves to the Paul.
Put put that begs the question.
Are these polls dishonest.
Now look we endow the with a false scientific precision is simply don't have if you got nine points more Democrats and Republicans get out you're not -- I want that -- nine points more Obama think about this.
-- Obama give each roughly the same percentage of the Republicans and Democrats.
As as their opponent that is to say they carry their and their base overwhelmingly.
Romney among independents is winning by three points so so from -- what are the independents and winning the Republicans do you think in a battleground state like Florida.
He's nine points down -- the answer is no.
Look I got a -- CBS New York Times has a history of this I remember in 1980 when I was the young executive director of Texans for Reagan bush.
The first week of October -- poll came out saying Nick Carter.
Was beating Reagan in Texas and I can remember all the meetings I had to go to -- have my posterior issued by the leaders of the campaign about what the heck were we gonna do about it.
And of course.
-- think that Texas was comfortably won by thirteen points basically four weeks five weeks later so you gotta be careful about these polls went down with -- scientific -- As I have what I don't have to be careful we give our report honestly but the rest of the media is it going to be careful because they're rooting for Barack Obama and his staff.
Props them up in Ohio -- -- Ohio.
In oh wait.
The Democrats had eight points more turnout -- the Republicans did.
You know for the Republicans had a five point turnout advantage Democrats five.
Five points less than the Republicans and and in 2000 the Democrats had one point more in turn out and -- did the Republicans.
CBS New York Times says nine points.
More Democrats and Republicans so they say Democrats are even more have depth than they were in 2008.
And the Republicans are less have to know who thinks that is not going to be eight it may not be that the Republicans outnumber the Democrats -- five points.
But it is somewhere between those two it's not nine and again.
Romney is winning the independents.
And gave me getting great numbers among Republicans did Obama getting great numbers among Democrats.
And yet Obama winning by ten points in the CBS New York powerful.
Send an abortion -- pull up by seven Democrats more than Republicans.
And I'll buy -- for Obama so look we've we've we've got to be careful about.
You know then we've we have -- a proliferation of these polls have been 87 national polls in the last thirty days.
That's more polls and -- run in the last six months of the 1980 presidential race car last week a little last week alone we -- 51 state level polls.
I initiate -- -- anybody here in here look from my point of view isn't news analysts and I believe that the folks know him honest in that regard.
When that news agencies like the CBS news on the radio report the whole.
And it shows that Barack Obama has leapt out to a big lead in Florida and Ohio.
That gets inside people's minds they remember that.
And that can only help the president.
That helps the president sure there's a perception is he's going to be the winner.
And look this was not easy to dig out these numbers are not printed in the pages in New York time -- to go to the website and go into the the instrument that they fielded and -- the data out of there but look it's not just it would let's not pick on CBS New York Times.
USA today has now run for battleground state polls of eleven states.
There were won by President Obama in 2008.
And are up for grabs this time around the last poll I believe had it had present Obama.
In the battleground states and the headline was -- in this great -- -- no context was provided.
Present Obama win -- low one those eleven states but over 54 to 45.
Or -- quick real quick you -- abort the call rolled four.
Where is the race in Ohio and forward in your well toss -- in and and in both states -- so.
Could go either way at this point -- history.