Are polls biased to boost Obama?
Critics raise questions about skewed numbers in key swing states
- Duration 6:04
- Date Sep 27, 2012
Critics raise questions about skewed numbers in key swing states
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You accusations of polling bias in favor of President Obama coming from both Republicans and Democrats today.
Critics raising questions days after a series of new polls should President Obama they significantly.
It in several key swing states.
The Romney campaign quickly responded casting doubt on those numbers here's what they sat.
It is not consistent with our polling Stephen I'm struck by a couple things wondered three swing state polls out today.
And in every single one -- them they have a democratic voter participation that is higher.
Then the participation in the electorate in 2008 and I don't know anyone on the ground in any of these swing states who believe that there will be higher.
Percentage of the electorate in 2012 than there was in 2008.
Doug -- his former pollster to President Bill Clinton Monica Crowley's radio talk show -- they are both Fox News contributors good morning to both happy to have you this morning hi there.
Eat it if that's true does that mean that is that they are skewing that they're showing higher turnout at those polls are assuming -- -- democratic turnout.
Now than in a weight when we notice huge.
Just yes that is correct but that's part of the story and only part of the story rent.
The Obama lead is a real one it.
Is not a lead that would disappear if the polls were waited in a slightly different direction but that being said.
In the state of Ohio for example where they have a plus eight democratic status -- In 2004.
It was a plus five Republicans -- now I don't expect that we're gonna go back as far as we did didn't.
Martha but I do think.
That a 345.
-- democratic balls would be right and if that was the case the Obama lead which would be eight.
910 points now would come down 345 points so there is ultimately some bias Obama is still ahead nonetheless.
All right a lot lots to talk about here -- some Monica.
-- out there are those who would look at this situation and all the outcry over the polls and say well you know when you're having a problem you're gonna suddenly say that the polls are scared them.
No but I agree with Doug let there a couple of things going on here and a lot of these polls are actually over sampling Democrats -- -- pointed out.
And over estimating the democratic turnout that they're actually saying that the democratic turnout this year.
Will be greater than what we saw in 2008 and -- Doug says nobody believes that -- actually going to be the case.
There are a couple of things that these pollsters I think are missing that point to the enthusiasm gap that does point to Republican advantage look.
Up early voter registration in a lot of these key states including -- Colorado's show a Republican advantage an early voting.
In some of these states including Ohio now shows that the Republicans now.
In terms of early voting are outpacing Democrats that's not being taken in account in a lot of these polls.
But -- is right to say that we have to deal in reality and the reality is that Obama may not have this kind of substantial lead but he certainly is leading and I think -- Romney now understands that we are five weeks away from this campaign.
What's -- from the election rather and -- from the Romney campaign is a real focus five weeks away Obama is leading.
Abide by at least a little bit anyway if not -- and so this really does focus the Romney team's lines.
It you know which brings up a great point I mean psychologically what's the impact of seeing these numbers which we have all been used to seeing very neck and neck.
Throughout this process and then you suddenly see these big swings where it looks like president Obama's leading by a lot.
It does a couple things it may motivate put a fire under that the Romney campaign but it also may you know make Democrats overconfident.
Well I I think it also could well create some enthusiasm.
For the Democrats that's that's not a partisan statements -- -- -- yes it could also -- and this is something that I think Monica would agree with me.
Donors are particularly sensitive to the polls the so called Smart money and and what I am concerned about is if -- Romney.
Financial base takes these polls as a given which I don't think they should it could depress contributions at a time.
When the Obama campaign in swing states for reasons I'm not entirely sure why.
Are actually outspending governor Romney and that's one of the reasons why Obama is doing as well as he is in all this Wednesday.
-- -- anyway I think about that Monica well it could actually have that could be true I mean nobody nobody really knows quite yet.
But also we could be -- witnessing the opposite effect in other words that these polls could actually be motivating.
A Republican donors and motivating the Republican base and independent voters because now we believe -- we've got to work that much harder.
So while I do think that the enthusiasm gap.
Does advantage Republicans if they take these polls at face value you're actually gonna see a greater enthusiasm gap because -- they believe that they are there -- not far behind.
They're gonna come out in droves and actually I think the money will start to flow in -- -- interest -- was our country the other day about Carter Reagan election and it it -- ten articles that were written in ten different states most of them you know battleground states even that.
And it showed all of these articles that were written about how Carter was way had Carter was way had across the board in all these places and you know history is is always a sort of a good way to to put things in perspective -- Well I I must say the Obama people and I'm pretty sure this are not not.
Taking these polls as a statement where the race and they understand what you're saying -- that is exactly right they're worried about what mark.
-- Monica was hypothesize and bottom line when the president's job approval is at best 50%.
Deep deep dissatisfaction with the economy.
The Obama people are is afraid -- they should be all of a swing to governor Romney at the end it's certainly not outside the about possibility with the first debate coming up next week.
-- -- -- -- There's not a lot of time left governor Romney said things are just getting started in his mind yesterday so debates ahead and all of that -- -- and but for people that opposed thank you so much money -- that they -- phone that thinks it's okay.