Are presidential polls accurate?
Do pollsters oversample from certain parties?
- Duration 4:52
- Date Sep 27, 2012
Do pollsters oversample from certain parties?
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Do the presidential polls printed in the mainstream media provide an accurate picture of the American electorate it's a big question right now.
After Republican claims that some surveys over sampled Democrats.
But a trend some suggest gives President Obama an edge over governor Romney come November if Republican voters don't think they can close the gap.
Let's talk about with just empower the columnist for the Daily Beast also -- Judith Miller of Pulitzer Prize winning investigative reporter and author both.
Our Fox News contributors.
So when you look at some of these polls.
You know President Obama leads nationally in some of them by 89%.
Republicans claim that the pollsters pierced in -- over sampling -- -- Well in some polls they do over -- Democrats and some -- they over sample Republicans and Nate Silver actually has done a great job.
At outlining which -- the polls do that some people might be surprised that some of the mainstream polls like the Washington Post ABC poll over samples.
Republicans quinnipiac over samples Republicans gallop over symbols Republicans so.
I think the best way to look at is look at the real clear politics average and that gives you a better sense which right now has Obama up about four.
It even it even if you take these claims at face valued.
John if if he's up by eight or eleven points in any of these polls even if you -- to take out the possibility of over sampling.
Which I don't think it's happening and I can explain that later.
He's still if he's still up by so much that even if they were over sampling he's still a hat you know it he's still ahead by four points -- OK -- point system it's not gonna benefit the Republicans to pretend.
That this is just although the pollsters helping Obama.
Well Judy though that one of the points Republicans like to make is that -- there was a seven percentage point advantage.
Among democratic voters who turned out in 2008.
So if the pollsters use that model if they wait all of their polls by Democrats plus seven because that those were the numbers.
Four years ago.
They're saying it's not accurate because you're not gonna get the same kind of democratic enthusiasm and democratic turnout.
In 2012 that you had in 2008 when Barack Obama was a new unknown and very exciting contender.
And what that is the key question and that does account for over sampling Democrats are -- -- Republicans and some of these polls.
And as terrorist and sad.
You repeatedly show Obama at the moment with a distinct need especially.
And that -- states that are all important an -- for grabs I mean I think it's really important to.
Under and not to to announce or not to as soon.
That this election is over I mean even though early voting has started in more than twenty stakes.
We really haven't even had our first.
Look close up look at the candidates visa -- one another that's where we are haven't even had a first debate yet.
And I think many things will affect -- not only the extent to which the debates.
But the extent to which people think they can make a difference so if one side overconfident.
And thanks to this is going to be a blowout Democrats may -- -- show up.
And if Republicans think all is lost they may not show up so I think the psychological attitude towards what to expect to November is strictly very very important.
And we can't assume that this race is over.
Do those things cancel each other out -- -- ones I mean you've worked in political campaigns if one side things all is lost in the others who -- thinks.
-- it's going to be a blowout for my guy do they cancel each other out.
I don't not and -- -- I cancel each other out but they definitely have -- an impact but.
It just to go back to these polls than other people need to understand and and this is really important it.
I really think the Republicans are some pretty serious denial right now -- what's going on if they wanna look at these really objectively.
There right about that that the claim about 2008 but what they're missing is that these polls are not asking people how are you registered they're asking you who -- you identify -- which is a different question.
And what typically happens is independence -- often.
Stay they get that they identify with the party that they're gonna vote for so if you were to go back and look at 2008 he was start noticing more people saying their Democrats -- you go back to 2010 when the Republicans.
One -- would start to see that more people were saying that they were Republicans so this suggests that independents are probably starting to move slightly towards Obama.
And if Republicans want to stay in denial about that and -- the liberal media -- welcome to do it but they're not doing themselves any.
Neighbors well Doug -- who is a frequent guest here on fox and and a longtime democratic pollster says.
We ought to pay less attention to the polls and more attention to the big issues facing this country well pretty easy for all -- -- yeah.
-- Jim Miller Houston bowers thank you.