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Which candidate has the edge in new polls?

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    Jim Pinkerton and Julie Roginsky on who’s ahead in the presidential race

  • Duration 7:37
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The numbers the move the Fox News poll.

Choice for president among likely voters this -- -- first.

Obama Biden now 48%.

From early September was also 48% before the convention 44% so.

48 to 43 over Romney Ryan now.

That number really hasn't changed since early September.

But it's down from before the convention.

I want to bring in jeweler didn't skate but for the Fox News contributor and enjoying a great thank you former Jon Corzine communications director well -- yes.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- We -- we heard about these polls we saw these numbers and we know that they are they don't always.

Hold up.

It's a danger that people see that number and say -- Obama Biden gonna win -- up but what you might not -- -- first and foremost.

-- -- -- I worked in the 1980 Reagan campaign.

And I remember very well there -- behind September October -- I would add getting clobbered by the media.

Then this might say that record the Reagan very well in the one debate he had against Jimmy Carter Cleveland.

Exactly one before the election and the roof caved in the Carter administration -- went from being a little bit ahead ten points down.

June thanks a lot of wishful thinking on the part of the -- campaign to say that every -- including the Wall Street Journal Fox News.

You have people who are who are reputable and not in the tank for Democrats.

All the -- skewing their Poland's reflects.

Invisible Obama surge whereabouts Obama and -- does not win but is it.

If possible that there is skewed sample in there well if you look at -- pollsters do this and I think most the differences that most people commenting on this have not been pollsters themselves he -- -- can't get worked in campaigns as well.

They don't look at party affiliation is not rate stayed at 50% -- Democrats and senate Republicans.

If you look at how people self identifying C undeclared voters leaning more towards being identified with a party as they're deciding who to vote for -- democratic leaning.

Independents say they're Democrats vice Versa and that's why you see the polling that you see today why it's not -- to -- them the way that it is having certain people want -- think they're skewed.

Every reputable pollster does this.

Fox News says this the Wall Street Journal does this again.

Because that's how you do reputable polling and I predicted that unless we have some major catastrophe that happens in October of the ramifications of the selection will be.

But the polls -- right they may not be right by the margin that Obama from places like Florida.

But -- will be right eventually I think if election were held today Obama would win that's not wishful thinking that's just the reality at least the -- let's look at this second -- that you.

-- for president among independent likely voters Obama Biden 43 down a point from early September Romney run 39.

All they're unsure 19% which is a huge number Jim what is the significance of this poll among independent.

Likely voters well I mean look at the whole ball game here's an evangelist at the -- my.

I'm actually not one of those who was good security issues these polls taken platform that is there's drumming up five points and -- as -- said look -- boxes of stooge for the Democrats.

I think independence in five -- six -- you make this life.

You tell me within -- tennis in North Carolina and duke and Virginia Ohio Colorado -- Nevada.

And then I'll give you pretty good handle on -- who's gonna win this election.

19% wanted to try this decided it is a big number.

But you know to some extent it is but some accent it's not make you think about this really depressing and -- impressed the -- -- -- -- -- it happened this.

The statistic that I fell at an April 2011.

Obama led Romney putting a lot of this is when Donald Trump was still viable presidential candidate media Kelenna Obama -- Obama led Romney has a hypothetical match up by one point.

Okay how much has changed which even these people made up their minds about Obama not so much about me but they have their -- but this president very early on that.

The -- both numbers are still in the forties so that is yes it's a close margin but the numbers that happening sooner -- -- your right what I think yes you're right but I think to some extent.

People have decided either love this president where they hate this president.

Or they're not coming out well I -- -- there's a brilliant -- article in Politico I want to get to -- -- in a minute about.

How people feel about -- -- just real quickly to scoot through the third poll.

Who you trust to do a better job on -- number of different categories foreign policy terrorism economy taxes government spending.

And the president comes out ahead.

On every single one of these except government spending so this would suggest Jim that there is some.

The voters have some issues trusting Mitt -- to take over this job you know look I don't I don't think it's a secret that he hasn't concentrate campaign.

And I think he's missed a lot of opportunities to to present himself better and I think we're about Obama has.

Wanted to get him look -- but just -- perspective here.

Way back before 1980 that classic example -- Collection that everybody -- along every thought being the underdog was -- under the election was -- 48 here to have the Clark Clifford of the -- advisor to president president Truman told me once it.

At a lunch.

Newsweek -- out surveys.

Fifty leading political experts don't -- before the 48 election and all that you have -- so of course every -- and that Republican challenger -- who's gonna win.

I can and so Clifford said you know I've I've showed us president Truman on the training her campaign around somewhere and you know Truman's.

It may -- is a little bit this survey is not worth of playing to playing the and of course doing -- -- okay yeah Tribune creditors stories the next day or tried to admit that night this thing do beat -- -- Truman -- Imus.

Legally tuners they already are clippers look over my accident by our.

Get this political article that says -- even.

Mitt Romney's closest -- think he is a much better bigger and more qualified man.

That is coming through on the campaign trail he's a great leader but he's not a great politician.

They're saying.

He doesn't have the hand on the shoulder thing he's not quick -- he's an analytical.

Data driven business person they're saying he -- the right man for the job but he's not the best political candidate.

Your smile.

I think that's absolutely right in the you know IA and this is not a partisan view my point and in my opinion.

You have to look -- everything increasing about Roger -- who you know how to fire season used to work for for next heat when he -- read -- somewhere.

But essentially created Nixon's image to some extent and then.

After that decided that you have to be good at the center in addition to being just a good policy person that that TV changed everything -- And I think that's absolutely the case of I think it's actually right what we see here today which is that.

-- -- is this confidence is obviously very confident business.

But he doesn't come across as -- -- doesn't come across as somebody who I think.

People can relate to across the television.

And he's got forty minutes can be overcome oh yeah I read an article two of the -- -- I felt I had my advisors saying we know is not a good politician and yeah.

I would I would go to Vegas and bet on Romney Perry look I think it's doing it was nice to say he's a competent he's -- very very -- business executive is much harder.

Politics is politics.

Mouth existence debate is how does it make a speech his father's eye contact -- this is winning the debate.

And -- to say he's not quick footed I mean these users the user's friends and in the name.

All the way I have to say this is actually somebody who's old campaign help for life a better word from his staff.

Leaking this kind of information and turning on their own candidate is most disloyal.

Terrific thing ever and -- -- -- -- the bottom of who leaked this and I guess there are candidates prison should be unemployable for our because it's just a huge concern on that note that we got to.

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