Political polls & the press
Do polls feed a biased narrative?
- Duration 5:30
- Date Sep 29, 2012
Do polls feed a biased narrative?
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This transcript is automatically generated
Well just over five weeks -- election day of both candidates are doing all they can.
To get their message out and the media seem to be helping one candidate more than the other.
A new Fox News poll asked who do you think national news organization spend more time defending.
47% say news organization spend more time defending President Obama and attacking governor Romney only 60% think.
It's the other way around Jim are the polls in the media all tilted towards the president.
It could be -- -- for example and the Washington when the durable goods orders false 13% in one month.
The headline in the Washington Post next day's business investment cools them.
13% -- -- a month which is annualized below a 100%.
It's just a mere -- I guess you.
A lot of the coverage and sounds like the race is over we haven't even had the first debate it.
Look to be parent looking at the polls it doesn't I'd I personally don't think it looks great for Romney right now that the race could change five times between now and Election Day especially because we haven't had debates so.
The media sort of wishful thinking trying to write off Romney I.
And I and I.
Normally do not buying into an idea that the media is completely on board on one side.
This is the exception this campaign this campaign season has been especially egregious.
In terms of them just ignoring.
Things that are out about President Obama and sassy things that are you know that Mitt Romney system cal why.
I watch out -- yeah I have to ask.
-- -- -- -- First of all these polls we talk about this before on the show.
I'm opposed to news organizations doing their own polls and making news from them.
What you're -- -- see about ten days two weeks before the election is a lot of the story line be paying the race is tightening.
Because they want ratings they want to sell newspapers.
But these things are sophisticated form of fortune talent you know -- just like I passed on the way to the studio today.
A psychic it's it's almost had stopped the cap -- go and energy is gonna win the election a little less sophisticated but it's the same approach.
Judy the narrative that gets played out in the media.
That is that it's almost over that if if Romney doesn't score.
Dig in the first debate in Denver this coming week that it's definitely over that is donors are gonna jump ship who creates is that does the media.
Actually create the narrative and then push it or -- they just sort of cherry picked for stories and polls that that they lie and then push though.
So I think this is where polls.
Become so important and influential if you can site.
A poll showing the gap between Romney and Obama growing and Obama are running away with it and you can really.
-- and say wow this race is over.
And look voting early voting is -- the -- into more than twenty states.
And 25% of the vote is actually determined by those early voters and you connect -- place.
For doing precisely what -- -- warned about which is pre judging outcome of this election.
Obviously not happy with these mainstream polls that are out there a lot of talk about the polls being -- in correctly.
For a news consumer.
Listening to your pearls of wisdom what would you say as far as how they should interpret the -- that's that's being done right now.
Well meaning if -- curious for another -- go to -- skewed polls dot com which is attempt to -- the polls despite look at element on the Fox News poll has -- down five points and it's suggest Romney's campaign.
That packet now who's not a Republican and it was a pollster and of crippled President Carter and Gary -- and look what the -- any relatives and break art.
What the media are doing is hitting hard spending their own money and -- mr.
roast those who broke.
And instead -- spending our money on polls and Virginia Ohio and Florida those states where where Obama clearly is.
Clobbering I'm in terms of television buys and it's -- LC is down eight points on IR whatever it is we must be losing nationwide and and it's.
It's not completely wrong but it's clearly intended to create as Judy was just the sort of bandwagon effect well obviously Romney is -- gone.
And -- and do you agree with cal that we're gonna hear stories about a tightening of the race and is that because the media wants to generate.
Ratings and sell newspapers and magazines or is it perhaps because there's a little bit of guilt on the part of the mainstream media that -- Maybe we should be covering this a little bit more fairly -- we happen you show us now.
The fact that -- out.
I did you sometimes media polls can be a little cooked there's no question I have a friend used to do it for one media organizations and -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- It's been -- here's what you want it and -- but the thing is.
If Nate Silver did a really good analysis of the polls that shows that there are diocese but they're actually sort of evenly split if you look at the big -- some of those are so weighted towards Republicans and summer weighted towards -- -- the best thing to do is look at the real clear politics average and it tends to kind of even out right now says Romney it's down by about four points which I think probably sounds right.
Don't think -- -- -- -- do to do a survey of previous polls and show how wrong they -- -- -- remember Carter was gonna clobber.
Reagan in 1980 either been a number of inaccuracies.
But they keep going back to them just like the fortune -- -- doesn't matter how many times they were off the.