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Do political polls tell the 'real' story?

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  • Description

    A look at what the numbers really mean

  • Duration 3:06
  • Date

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Back to politics the accuracy of polls as always in question and the upcoming presidents and a lot election is putting a spotlight.

On just how accurate they are.

For example there are two polls that show President Obama in the lead in Florida.

The Washington Post poll as the president up by four points 51 to 47 but the New York Times poll has the president up -- nine point.

53 to 44 same state two very different numbers.

With me to explain all of this to you and me.

Is former pollster for President Clinton and Fox News contributor Doug shown good evening Doug.

Good evening -- are here.

Explain this to -- -- a couple of things first it has to do with sample composition.

The pole with a larger -- had more Democrats the poll with us smaller lead had fewer Democrats part of it has to do with there's a bigger undecided.

Bigger and decided means that in fact that there is more persuasion in the electorate so that.

Bottom line.

With one.

-- have in the president 51 and 53 what I as a professional draw from it.

Is the president's own vote is probably in the low.

Fifties the rest of the voters either undecided or with governor Romney undecideds judge -- to break against an incumbent.

They break against the and -- so the president I would assume even though one -- for the others nine that the lead is much closer to four.

Then -- all right what about the fact that how how to think -- -- -- -- just bear with me for sure.

I remember in 2008 there was all this excitement we had an African American right is reaching out to young people to do those who felt they were disenfranchise.

How do we know both saying people are voting in in a few weeks we don't.

And a lot of the polls out now judge are showing the same turnout model that we had in 2008 but your question is well taken.

Because ultimately the level of enthusiasm for the Democrats is down.

From a late and I should -- the Republican brand is suffered a hit too so we don't know bottom line who's voting.

-- -- -- -- But you know what they hit it in terms of the media I mean the media is almost playing it -- -- -- you know it's over he's so far ahead in those battleground states that you know what.

Isn't there a subliminal or have real message -- bother to come out you want.

There are two problems.

First the polls I think are overstating.

The president's -- I think the president is ahead but in those swing states it's close but second -- a mainstream media narrative that says that the president.

Has all but been reelected some people take that to mean don't bother to vote the Obama campaign I would tell you.

He's very worried that its supporters we'll sit on their hands and they won't vote either.

All right real fans speaking of narratives let's talk about that narrative from the spontaneous protest the -- athlete.

Does that break for the president when everybody's -- that it wasn't that.

Judge did you see the New York Times front page today.

They basically suggest that this spells trouble for the president.

It does he's got a good record on terror but this is his problem it's a -- and it's a problem at the worst possible time all right Dutch -- thank you so much for being -- -- we.

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