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I'm Doug shown I'm here with my colleagues pat -- and John -- -- later this is campaign insiders where we bring you the inside of what's going on in campaigns knows spin.
No tilting at Windmills just facts and inside analysis today we have a special show for you today.
Meaning that between Jon blue blue -- and Pat Caddell and myself we're gonna get into the debate.
And when I say get into the debate we're gonna talk about what the candidates need to do how they need to influence the election probably -- to influence the electorate.
And what they're going to do tactically.
It's something you don't get on TV don't get on the web ultimately this is the place to come and we very much appreciate -- joining us week after week.
I'd like to begin with slides.
Number two the fox poll for president and I would like to talk about the state of the -- as you can see here it's 4843.
For the Obama Biden ticket and John would like to begin with you.
Does this reflect in your opinion where the race stands and if so what does it mean.
Now I think it's approximately.
-- somewhere in there home still winnable race for Romney but he is clearly behind.
Since the 47%.
Video came out I feel his campaign has lost a little ground.
And he needs to reverse it now he's tried this past week to run on new commercially took -- commercials off.
Which is an acknowledgment that he's in trouble and put his face on -- Mitt Romney here's a fun to do for you -- a nice guy add to try to heal.
Dammit let's let's let's let's let's look at that number six John you've alluded to it if we could play number six and give viewers senses to what.
What -- -- for a.
President Obama and I both care about poor -- middle class families.
The difference is my policies will make things better for them.
We shouldn't measure compassion by how many people -- on welfare.
We should measure compassion.
By how many people are able to get off welfare and get a good paying job.
The case that the use of the word compassion twice and there is to show that he's compassionate after -- 47%.
I don't care about those people -- That's what he still he still defending catching up trying to repair his image.
Leading into the debate between pat what did you think of the -- and where does the race stand do you agree with John do you have anything to protect.
I -- I made the comment think it's a couple at several points naturally.
Maybe more in the swing states the Obama campaign is just cleaning -- clock crucifix to.
How much time their body in the swing states -- biting them by huge margins have been for two months.
The I think there are -- are better equipped -- I think this this is good here in one sense except the very defensive.
This is a campaign should be on the offensive now but has to be on the defensive because since the since the convention.
Where they did not succeed in getting what they want and yes they told some wrong -- long story but that 47%.
And you know when the bombing campaign is back where we -- in the spring keeping.
The Romney campaign on its heels hold although I have to tell you I do think this foreign policy problem.
-- -- building a continual killings and Afghanistan's.
-- what the foreign policy well we have Ramirez won easily be in law here which is a narrative of what White House tried to protect com Donald wants to get -- -- -- -- political.
Cheaper of the National Security Council he's not a foreign policy for his political act.
And what he has been due admitted that they are you calling for his resignation today he he's about -- fire how much harder firing.
The fact of the matter is even more fire and -- -- and Susan Rice.
Big -- -- that is Peter king and ready aim fire they should all be fired because a lot in this whole thing it's a strategy -- And it's -- -- -- even the New York Times today.
Is unraveling the story and in Afghanistan you have people being Americans being killed by our erstwhile allies constantly more people killed this morning.
I just think this foreign policy thing to be a problem.
But let me let me one last point on the narrative which is that.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- They are just commodity mutual walls that -- the campaign that was -- to win.
It's on how to use it.
Why I say what listen -- -- you know I have.
Great respect for pat and I hear this and I -- if we took the words out of -- and government Romney's and lion's mouth on the on these shows.
They be doing much better I -- like to hear them say exactly what he just said about Libya the ambassador or.
The -- -- and the national security advisor we mentioned remarks show your livelihood -- usually leaker in chief of national security stuff for political purposes and to discourage some of them probably ought to be saying.
But he doesn't.
Did say one other thing that's important.
We choose the of the failure of the Republican Party overrule.
What you oldest of the part of stupid party -- -- corrupt party in the super -- that we have evidence of both this week.
The stupid party which has lost its ability to frame the election.
Even though they have one fundamental philosophical questions of the size of government now the big if we -- done having a big issue election would you keep calling for him.
Wouldn't be the big issue where we go in the future we're coming.
The Republicans had a twenty point margin.
They're losing the presidency.
They are losing their chance to win the senate which is hard to believe and I believe how else do you we have better data on this tonight it but I -- the -- -- Well what I'm seeing in the house and under don't walk -- guys a tweet that we will all find very gratifying in the second but to answer Pat's question.
When I was seeing them in the house stated is not so much -- linked to the Democrats.
This dissatisfaction of the Democrats that the bottom is falling out of the Republicans.
Because of the Ryan plan that is.
Deep team and -- do you dislike the Ryan plan but gentlemen I'm gonna go to Lou in just 12.
To the Obama there at which I think we didn't see -- -- distinction to the -- But I wanted to share something that I find gratifying that I am going to put up on my wall of fame in my.
My apartment and I would urge you to put it in your own.
Place of special mention -- importance.
From Trevor dean.
Yes exclamation point twice.
This show every morning so money every month or so congratulations.
To both -- view this we're doing something I think his right.
-- and keep the self congratulations to a minimum and get back to the Obama -- -- wanna get to the electoral map from that.
And then turn to the main event of today the debate -- First of all the Obama ahead and I would like you guys to quickly characterized the -- after it runs its number five season we what Romney is doing.
We have much more to do to get folks back to work and make the middle class security.
Now governor Romney believes that would even bigger tax cuts for the wealthy and fewer regulations on Wall Street all of us will prosper.
In other words he double down on the same trickle down policies that led to the crisis in the first place.
So what's my plan.
First we create a million new manufacturing jobs.
John what's your reaction to that it okay.
It's a better -- in the Romney had because he is it.
Looking good and it's positive for Obama while he's dumping on Romney and linking Romney to -- he's -- all the things he's been doing for six months in the campaign.
-- what is supposedly a positive bad and we talked about on the show before.
You run and had two -- two minutes is a long time any running it.
While early voting again as you say closing and you know your point about that -- -- -- it's a closing statement as early voting starts.
He's appeal they actually have the same stand up on the our own people.
In the key swing states they're not just -- as a -- that is as I -- yesterday to be wrong bachelorette.
So it's a much better is much better produced it looks much better from Romney campaign's message would go from.
Replaced the plays every except for the one they just did which is no I don't hate people.
Right and that one by the way they've been run and we looked at a minute ago that was.
It's running in all the battleground states and is the only end their run and it takes -- -- is -- -- defensive campaign as.
-- challenger who's losing -- against a president who's Arnold offense.
With positive beds you have enough the president turning to bat for Kennedy's running the one we just saw him for two minutes of -- on cable and he's running in 32.
One with a 47%.
Video and right now all over the place so he's easy Romney is on the defensive being outspent him be under attack and under attack emerald.
-- getting away with because now what's happening the focus is -- -- is close is at 50% or oracle closed.
And if it's optional long that's the key measure -- 50% -- win tonight I say something leading into the familiar heading towards the -- and put somebody get to the Gallup daily tracking and -- offers up against and -- I was gonna say what we've seen.
With the president as he hit and run a re election I'm an incumbent's strategy.
What -- challenger team he's been on attack.
All the time which would none of us thought when it happened was gonna happen presidents don't attack by name their opponent in April may June and never -- -- He -- -- and his work for him and I predict he will do it in the debate people do the same thing they'll go in like he's behind he's desperate.
He'll be on offense putting Romney on defense.
Speaking of that let's let's look at the Gallup daily tracking poll put that up that's number three and the question I would ask.
And I guess both of you.
He is given this witch is plus five and given Rasmussen which is I think about plus to -- if memory serves me.
How do we reconcile pat what is the lead as we sit here tonight give -- a number.
Well this is Gallup is still registered voters and and recipes and is likely voters I am -- split -- -- So what's up three and a half points the -- and I go if you guys that's my little if it's Romney's behind but not so far behind that he can.
Can't win if he does the stuff we talked about.
He can still win the sort of people are running out of time is running out of time but this is the most topical -- -- When 2010.
Decline from the bottom of the Republicans had a case to make.
And may define the election or not the funny you know.
And they are you know -- -- -- -- this -- in the healthcare will be the first topic of debate on the way.
So we'll see what he -- -- about the support Romney makes such a mess about that some they've abandoned that he should -- of the Republican Party in 2010.
You can't be more stupid -- they are.
Can I ask.
We put up number four which is the electoral map.
Me as we look here.
And it's tough for me to make it out of my recollection is were around to.
On one OK there's been no movement for Romney in months dog and 265 to fix -- we ran off from June 19 221.
To 230 -- -- 3702.
To sixty thought this is just for me because Michigan and Wisconsin have been moved over.
Four and if you look at the states the -- states that are still in life you have New Hampshire.
-- -- President Obama about to -- reports Florida two or three points North Carolina tied.
Virginia three or four points Barack Obama Colorado two or three points Obama Nevada.
Two or three yards and running some lady in any swing state right.
-- -- -- By annihilate you I understand but I thought it was six guys on there I could improve his standing guys I was even bigger -- -- that thing with Florida is.
Apparently senior citizens.
When they 120 point lead because of health care.
When you say well who's that busy or so Republicans Romney did -- have -- -- that's -- jeopardy.
Because the Ryan plan did we not say that that what happened recently -- here -- the Ryan plan was suicidal yes a year and -- Months ago for the -- people who watch campaign insiders then on this campaign confidential.
We've talked about what.
A terrible policy -- -- I called Paul Ryan the doctor Kevorkian's of the Republican Party.
And a lot of people didn't agree but I'm sorry about personal attack it's a political attack.
That issue is not to be brought up in the campaign when it doesn't need to -- Used to edit the I -- your -- -- Republicans got elected and forty tend to get rid of obamacare.
Instead they try to get -- and re at a time.
Don't -- in the recent history they have gone after entitlements they have lost not because entitlement should be dealt with.
But -- you convince the country there's a problem this notion of let's have the prescription -- -- the pain then we'll have the prescription.
No he -- that people understand why you and there are also has to be a benefit -- he would benefit -- let me let me.
Honolulu get to a break in the second but I want to regions we tweets we've gotten and get quick -- before we turn to the debate after the break.
Why isn't anyone asking why the enemy why the ambassador was there in -- on 9/11 with no security.
The ambassador had no security because in -- -- administration.
Is in denial about terror existing.
Lies and lies and more lies Romney can't or won't capitalize on them why I cannot tell you.
-- Well initially answer as -- said of the vehement.
Valerie Jarrett has holes certain Secret Service protection multi zone including a vacation -- -- Muslim leader and on 9/11 our ambassador doesn't.
Have protection not what why hasn't someone just put that on the table.
You have -- several articles some little speech to accuracy in the media I would urge all of our viewers and listeners to go.
Maybe it is I know in the New York Post yesterday.
Is it online agents online -- did you say there's video there's only one -- it's online it's gotten to comment on everywhere it's done everywhere gone viral and it's a great message and John any reaction to the three tweets that I just went.
Why again if if this is where Romney wants to go and bring this up as a central point in the campaign were running out of time.
-- he's -- these kind of and we are running out of time and I'd like to take a quick break.
We'll be back in about thirty seconds with a focus on the debate by campaign insiders thank you.
-- -- -- -- -- -- Our campaign insiders to do.
Is to drill down John.
You're advising President Obama what does he say in his opening.
I think he comes out and he I think that's the do they have an opening statement for two minutes I believe I believe what is what is on the topic of the night which is the economy because he can't come up sort talking about in Libya and you've got everybody and I tell anyone higher.
I think he he is going to take.
That two minute commercial that we saw.
And he's memorize this script from that thing and that's going to be is opening statement to project -- nice guy and I'm confident president.
This boy across -- table here from my.
It's got nothing but bad ideas and he's gonna do it nicely and every line you hear out of Obama.
We'll have been a scripted tested.
Line that he's used he isn't going off the cuff for an hour and a half that.
Well for Romney -- I would do what would you do for a lot of people wrong is the first thing is I would say.
Personal I would I would say I would I would see the fact that hey look this -- -- -- there.
I am I am -- -- who -- things I would speak to the urgency of the crisis in the country.
I would go back to the fact about -- -- looking.
I would talk about the fact that.
Is present -- the three things -- would tell you what would do you know why didn't this mean I would say I would say this president has failed.
The American people.
And I failed to do what I said I won't run for reelection I would make an emphatic statement the differences.
This is about the country and I would do the urgency what's going on.
And I would basically say.
You know win in the subtext that message can be very simple fee of ninety minutes to decide whether I'm not the eighth hole those guys -- -- Clinton and John what should be allowed me questions that he get -- -- -- what should be the president's overarching.
Advice buzz words.
What would -- if you were sitting with the president what would you be I wouldn't have any -- I wouldn't do any schtick.
I'd be presidential I'd try to be serious he's what he's got to worry about and his advisors have to tell woman on how you tell president.
Is he tends to be obviously -- got.
And formal themselves.
He was that way in the convention speech.
Yeah professorial but that's different and arrogance he know he's cocky and you could see it in his convention speech the look on his face.
When he -- a lousy speech.
He had a look on his face like this is a war for make a song too good to have to do this and he was ticked off the Clinton and given a better speech the night before.
This time he's got to be humble presidential.
Which is hard for him because I don't think he's a -- -- I say one thing on the defensive players Mickelson -- -- harboring and engaged us I think he needs to pave from the wrong.
You're doing -- I'm doing wrong here.
We and underdogs in the minute or 200 calls please take the call me I'm done of those people great toughest on the ball all -- all these people.
-- -- then all but the I would you know he needs to engage -- or one thing.
He I would turn of the presidency was not not assume you'll be students and he would stand.
Several hundred million dollars.
Telling people like murder people.
That I've done this that fire all the stuff you know just a -- not what should look in the camera tell the American people beautiful week.
That that is the person I am.
And we've forty seen the president will all commit to keep saying yeah campaign -- -- on -- -- to make.
This is since I don't know the -- will take -- -- if you knew what.
But I would have engaged -- -- because the president has made set loosening up where Maliki is death.
But Romney's got to go on I think you need to speak to this -- Brumbies gotta get up there and -- -- plan and say we're going to the country is falling off a cliff.
We're gonna be in trouble and here is a free things -- things.
That have to be done I'm not a great politician but I'm a great manager and -- -- human -- don't I won't be standing here like this man.
Having failed in midnight and and right.
I realized before you go -- make yourself let me switch and be Romney's hearse I put us what is because I can relate more Republican I think that run really in his two minutes.
Needs to set out the entire last five weeks of this race in the opening two minutes.
And -- got to keep coming back to that for the hour and a half of that debate and in those ten minutes he's got a he's got to acknowledge some things that pat alluded to is what I watch myself on the news at night.
Like you do and I have to admit I'm a bit of it do for us as a candidate I'm really not that good that.
But I think come -- competent president and here's what I would do as president.
That this nice president he has a nice man but he doesn't do it and here's what I will do I don't believe in a managed economy I believe in -- free economy back.
And go through if you didn't write those who cannot -- and I will not run again.
And I will work for a dollar a year and and I will tell you amassed more rent you say were in terrible mess -- -- weren't terrible -- because both parties mind and his -- had god he didn't -- any -- right people -- -- beauty outside are located in the first two minutes -- Winston -- -- -- nominated -- running -- but let me let me.
Look -- before I answer your question let me walk for what Trevor -- -- very nice comment.
That is what he says are you wanna fast if he he is he is now.
And move to the top of the poll.
If I -- Romney I would lay it out clearly which is I think my advice as well.
And say look Obama cannot and has not negotiated.
And has no bipartisan achievements -- plants and indeed that's what I've been saying I've been saying Romney has to offer a credible alternative.
A benefit the reason why I said reforming entitlements as bad as a strategy.
These because -- it does is take things away from people without work pretty even though Holbrooke promise of a benefit.
I think if you have a plan that's going to rein in entitlements -- spending cut taxes for fun and offer economic growth but just salmon and cut.
Entitlements people say -- to cut I don't.
You do the right right I'd -- go to -- -- economic program over this question the country's sixteen billion trillion dollars in debt this may have promises -- create more you think we should spend more.
This man's answer we should have more government -- bigger government.
And jammed down your throat like the obamacare I'll tell you that that is a prescription for disaster -- won't create jobs.
We need to create jobs this is -- what you should choose people because he is gonna take the country the same place she did the last four years.
I'm telling you there is -- -- -- went on how does Obama has.
He's going to just answer with the same stuff we've heard is.
Where Romney wants to take you -- use the word but he's taking you back to George W.
Bush that's -- W -- She'll get away from out of state both parties can thank -- he hasn't done that we should -- all of us who isn't finalized by the way.
We've talked on here we talked in the first segment about foreign policy.
During the that the -- campaign whether to go in the foreign policy a little bit.
Romney should have separated himself from the bush foreign policy also -- -- -- but they're -- going to be harder for him to criticize a lot -- the old.
And I'll tell you -- would use this is because I think debates can be very effective.
Weapons I would say you know let me tell you something when the American -- was -- And us embassy in -- -- also moderation you were here in Vegas raising money.
After you get that instead of in the Oval -- doing your job I'm president I'm gonna worry about our country first and not politics and re election the way you do I feel -- Yeah he'd take the prerogative of the -- -- him -- a lot of -- instead of predictions I'm going to ask for two things after reading the tweets of the century which I'm -- give you -- Can Pat Caddell stand in for Romney in the debates here we go.
Now here's the question.
Who don't win according to the polls and the pundits the debate John how will how you scored in advance.
I think they'll say Romney -- that Romney did better than people fought that and I think he he does well debate still to look at how to help the polls.
But there already -- we expect present -- -- presence had I think you'll still lead in the polls.
However I think the pundits are gonna save Romney did better mommy for real this is a vehicle challenges -- real problem.
The CB console use.
His problem his I'm not -- -- come on terror -- for rich people and it's the same time moved the definition.
People winning the waiters.
But I say I think that they.
Are going to say in advance -- Obama's gonna win -- gonna do decidedly better than people expect.
And the net result is the political class we'll say that the debate was -- -- -- let me -- is a Romney victory following it in me will you may well be.
But let me thwart campaign insiders suggest.
We will be back Sunday at 530.
On the Fox News Channel will be back 10:30 AM Monday right here on the web foxnews.com.
Live and for pat -- -- absolutely I am Doug -- Thank you for joining us and we will see you next week right here.
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