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Defcon3 10/3/2012

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    What should the US expect from the upcoming leadership changes in China? Is the US expanding the covert war in North Africa? Plus could Iran sanctions...

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Welcome back to -- country brought new foreign policy -- you just don't get enough from this during the regular day.

We want -- to -- our discussions today with Twitter or the live chat and -- -- about a couple of exciting areas in the world and nobody else is paying any attention to.

Russia what's going on Chinese Japanese tensions Iran's currency is collapsing.

So first so -- wanna talk about China should -- hackers are increasingly.

Getting into the US government's web sites.

Including the White House website.

To joining out and discuss how this impacts on US Chinese relations is the author of the coming of the new book that coming collapse of China you heard it first.

Gordon Chang what's going on the middle kingdom.

Or what's going down in the middle -- -- generally the economy and I think that's driving a lot of things right now -- the Chinese economy is perhaps zero growth it's not the seven point 8% of the government -- This is creating all sorts of political problems the political system is fracturing and -- becoming more aggressive and we saw that in the beginning of this week with those reports.

-- Chinese hackers have gotten into the White House military office.

This is critical because that's the portion of the White House -- that controls the football.

The football is that suitcase device that allows the president to communicate and command our nation's strategic nuclear forces -- -- you can't get anything more sensitive than that.

Yeah I missed me about this we've -- -- the movies right to spy movies where somebody is getting the code.

And they're sending -- NASA launched the missiles send the bombers and what this means that has the Chinese are in the middle of that conversation.

Right you know handle going.

You know you can think of a number of things first of all they want to know what's going on in the White House.

But just think about what they could do so for instance if they were able to compromise the president's ability to command the strategic forces.

That means that they could launch a first strike again if we couldn't respond.

Now I it's not gonna -- end -- that's serious but that's really where they're going and and that's how important business.

And the white house of course downplayed what was going on they said well no classified networks were breached.

But we really don't know that because it won't.

Think there's quite some time before anybody is able to do the forensics to work it all back and to figure out just how far the Chinese penetrated our networks.

Yeah we've had general Michael Hayden out of former Director of National Intelligence.

And he says the problem with any cyber attack -- you don't know where it's coming from you -- -- idea where it's coming from.

But it doesn't necessarily have a return address what concerned me when I saw a story about hacking into the White House military network.

Is that's also the office is in charge of all presidential travel.

Security guards -- Secret Service you want.

But if somebody knows where the president's going to be which playing he's gonna use time you command and control -- aircraft than even the present as serious as possible.

Well that's continuity of government now which is really no more critical issue than that.

We know that this attack came from a server in China you know China has the world's most extensive Internet controls.

Which means that you can't touch -- -- invade India and China without somebody in the Chinese Government knowing about it.

And also you know people say well maybe this was routed through China.

You -- started from Russia or someplace else but the point is the Chinese control that with the great firewall which means they know everything coming into their country and everything going out.

So if it really was from -- place in Russia or you know the Ukraine or whatever the Chinese would have been complicit because they could have stopped it because they need everything.

So essentially what we have is the Chinese were behind this one way or another.

So when I think that's a really great point I wanna ask you don't really -- initially that the Chinese economy is slowing down.

What does all that mean for China.

Well good Chinese political system basically -- the primary basis of legitimacy is the continual delivery of prosperity.

Because you -- don't -- -- gave up marxism gave up the ideology.

Basically said that China would grow be like a normal.

What's your religion has its resolution has them it's not.

The Communist Party it's really judge you're gonna have a much better life and -- better mature goods.

And for the last 3233.

Years the average annual increase in gross domestic product has been nine point 9%.

But now the Chinese economy is growing it -- be one.

May be zero.

This -- sudden deceleration the economy because at the end of 2010 it was growing more than the ten point 4% that they claim it's now about zero when we look at the electricity production statistics.

Price indices manufactured surveys they all point to an economy that is screeched to a halt this isn't important because -- the party.

Really it has only one thing it can fall back on and that's nationalism.

And you know we've seen for instance all of these protests against Japan in the last two weeks which are really sponsored by the Communist Party to divert people's attention away.

From more important problems at home.

The Japanese and the Chinese seem to -- them.

Coming not to -- us that there are tensions over these tiny little islands in the middle of the -- the western Pacific the same track the wound was trying to.

This is like this it didn't win but only in the 21 century.

This -- -- -- our islands which are administered by Japan which means they're covered by the US Japan.

Mutual defense treaty and we have an obligation to defend territory that is administered by Japan.

We don't take any claim we don't take any position on -- -- but we will defend them.

And the Chinese want them they've been sending their votes into Japanese waters right now there about six Chinese patrol boats and right next to the senate caucus.

This has been a series of events going back for the last six weeks where the Chinese have been sending aircraft.

Into Japanese waters this is important because they want to take those over there really testing the United States and Japan to see where that we will come to Japan's defense.

This is going to have enormous consequences for China because China is making itself I'm really very belligerent it is.

It is going after Japanese businesses in China so that means that China is no longer a reliable member of these global supply chains.

This is gonna further impact the Chinese economy in a negative way.

And basically this -- become more than just -- -- now this has become a contest between China and Japan that could really shake China which is not prepared to deal.

With the -- Sure picking a fight now well.

Its interest and you know in the first two weeks of September.

Vice presidency gentlemen -- supposed to be the next leader of China.

Disappears from public view and state media is entirely quiet nothing in state media and -- during those two weeks state media wrapped up the propaganda against your path.

And the state run Beijing evening -- this -- -- Chinese Government to use nuclear weapons against Tokyo.

So what's going on here is that there was a political crisis in the -- the -- Communist Party.

And so in order to divert attention and the Chinese Government and the Communist Party.

Then sort of try to get the Chinese people to go after Japan.

We gotta remember that in the first team leaders of the Chinese People's Republic of China strongman not that long and -- up paying.

You -- protests against Japan but now we've got weak leaders Jones -- now Hu Jintao.

And and they have wrapped up really the protests against Japan in the propaganda and the emotion and this once -- gets started.

I don't know -- the Communist Party can control it.

Any campaign is encouraged her you -- -- the United States and Japan have a mutual defense treaty the same -- the United States and Great Britain did in the 1980s.

When the Argentines took over the Falkland Islands and Britain said Margaret Thatcher.

Said we're going to war we're gonna take our island spec isn't this the same kind of -- crisis where -- potentially are picking a fight.

Not just with Japan but with the united state.

All of this is definitely -- -- and it's not just Japan the Chinese are picking fights with the Philippines where we have a mutual defense treaty.

-- China has claims on South Korean territory.

China has basically claims the entire South China Sea as its own.

These claims go thousands of miles beyond China's shores they're just -- Ludacris.

But basically China wants territory that it belongs to other nations and they've got to be stopped I know that these are just six -- outcropping was.

But this really is the test because.

You know the Chinese -- say it's not just to send copies the Chinese have been laying the ground work for making claims against spoken -- in the -- you could change.

So the Japanese sit back and say we think it's give up these islands because if we do they're gonna go after -- next -- rather where we have a lot of United States Marines.

I've been a lot of defense facilities we have -- air force base -- -- -- and so many of our forces that are in Japan.

Are actually you know can all -- it and that I think I was really surprised with that the mainstream media and then everybody kind of ignored the United States and -- -- -- Gary Locke.

Two weeks ago left the American combat the American Embassy in Beijing in his own car.

In his armored vehicle and he was it when he got to time the -- what's all about.

Well this was an anti Japan protests that spilled over this was the eighteenth of September.

Which is the anniversary of Japan's invasion of Manchuria there's a lot of emotion of course and some of it stirred up by the Communist Party.

Some of the protesters broke off from an anti Japan protests and -- been surrounded -- car and damaged while he was and it.

And this shows that these protests are not just anti Japan it will also include foreigners because that Chinese.

-- also went after European targets.

-- and we not to do your.

They went after Rolex.

Samsung the Korean company so this is basically you've got a boxer wrote rebellion type situation that rebellion at the beginning of the twentieth century.

We're Chinese went on to claim every ash shot 65 days and -- that.

And and that's problem because -- China goes on this anti foreign binge than the consequences just spill and I we don't know where they hit it out and demonstrations are happening in China by accident -- these were actually sponsored by the Communist Party.

The police brought people to the demonstration sites -- they moved them out afterwards they told them what to say what they couldn't say this was clearly staged.

But.

We -- getting a great -- -- I'm from Trevor who says.

And economically China is gonna continue to try to thwart us and NATO.

And -- fuel their economy but on the other hand there are bankers are -- to me about.

Is this have mutual relationship or does somebody have the effort having Hillary Clinton famously said about China you don't pick a fight with your banker.

We have the upper hand because last year China's merchandise trade surplus.

Against the United States was a 190.

Point 5% of its overall trade surplus.

And is incredible as that number is and it's just simply unbelievable that number probably won't go up this year because China's exports to Europe which was its biggest export market.

Have declined substantially here and then tried to make up for it by sending stuff to the United States.

And so we're becoming much more important to China we have a lot of leverage.

And you know they buy our debt not because that gives them control over us but because they have to because they've got -- bad economy which is brand to selling things to us.

Okay -- here's the real solution one of our viewers has just said that he was stationed at camp Hansen.

And Okinawa and then in the 1980s and he's ready to go back and defend.

The islands -- have to poke our number oh by now probably are my -- -- Gordon Chang.

Coming collapse of China the guy -- -- -- just about every major crisis in the Pacific.

For the last ten years.

Thanks for joining us thank you okay we're gonna break and then come back and talk about.

Other bombshell allegations against the administration over the handling of the living in assassinations.

-- welcome back to -- country finish your questions and comments on Russia China.

And the Libyan crisis that we want to talk about now -- what shall allegations.

Against the -- Obama administration regarding the security situation in Libya.

Have just started heating up in the weeks leading up to this deadly attack on our consulate and Ben -- -- September 11 attack.

They're now new documents showing that the administration apparently ignore the repeated calls to increase security there underground for the American ambassador.

Our chief intelligence correspondent Catherine Herridge as usual.

Has the best story around and she's here in Washington Catherine what are we learning about this warning that was given to the United States.

Diplomatic personnel.

-- Katie thank you for that kind introduction of these letters were obtained by Fox News and they show the State Department.

Refused to get involved in dispute between blue -- Libya.

The security lessens soldier in Libya and its operations partner -- on UK that train and provided the local guards at the consulate.

A source with knowledge of the discussions tells Fox News.

There were two State Department meetings about the situation and the security contract in Libya one in June and is second in July.

Fox News is told the Libyan contract holder felt.

The security provided by blue mountain UK was quote sub standard and the situation was unworkable.

When the Libyans tried to bring in a third party an American contractor to improve security at the consulate -- State Department contract officer.

Apparently shut it down in July 10 letter.

That reads in part quote.

The US government is not required to mediate any disagreements between the two parties of the blue mountain Libya partnership.

Both parties must agree to key personnel changes and the contract terms and conditions preclude any subcontracting.

And the State Department Tuesday the briefer did not have specifics on the blue mound dispute.

They promised to look into it for Fox News and in response to another security related question they said those decisions were made in DC and not locally.

-- stone -- the local security posture it's worked out.

With Washington with the post.

It's not something you can do yourself.

So just in a nutshell what we had here are documents such as allegations but documents in black and white that show.

That there was a known dispute and that there was a problem with the security contractor at the consulate.

In Ben Ghazi and that in July exactly two months before the strike the State Department -- so it was an act of -- mission they chosen not to get involved in that dispute KT.

No woman has the latest Katherine Harris pastor and I think it's gonna continue to grow and Catherine I'm so glad you're the one on it.

-- an airline giants all right see you soon I just got.

An email from someone who's from the area -- historian I'm gonna protect his last name.

He said I've worked in Libya for many years and it was common knowledge that -- training have been going on there for years.

Prior to this most recent September 11 event.

During the Libya has long been a haven for Islamic radicals what's the big surprise I can't believe the lack of security around our people.

And letting them travel around the country like a group of tourists on vacation.

Explain stay safe and thank you for sharing that.

We're gonna turn out -- Michael Smith of the -- us.

Company across advisory.

Big -- have.

Really interesting organization like if I can break a pressure for a minute they -- the ones you -- -- have been following terrorism.

Al-Qaeda in particular in North Africa and when I was trying to figure out.

Three weeks ago after the September 11 attacks what was going on who is al-Qaeda and Libya.

Michael Smith's organization crass advisory.

Had an unclassified.

Report that The Library of Congress have done for the Defense Department.

Talking about the threat post by.

Al-Qaeda in Libya a profile my -- much -- about them.

Michael can you hear me.

I think we've lost Michael who is going to be with us by telephone.

But I want to save that one of the things that I've been so concerned with and this whole.

Situation now the unfolding events with the Libyan assassinations.

Is that is starting to sound to me a lot like Watergate -- -- say that because there's there's clearly a cover up going -- of some sort.

There -- maybe just dumb mistakes made there were pretty dumb mistakes bordering on negligence.

But at this point you're starting to see the drip.

Drip drip of information.

And we don't worry is as this information comes out there be more merit there can be more whistle blowers especially.

If it becomes a situation where the White House tries to blame career professional intelligence officers.

Or diplomats.

For something that may have been a political decision coming out of the White House okay Michael Smith is with us now Michael.

Can you tell us about this the report that you've kind that you published on your website on -- and also about the growing al-Qaeda threat.

In Libya and a North Africa.

Well kitty thank you it's an honor to be with you the reports that -- published on our web site that we obtained last week is a report that's been covered extensively by Tom jostling -- -- terrorism analysts too frequently contributes to the weekly standard.

The report highlights was a lot of counterterrorism professionals and terrorism expert authority knew which is that al-Qaeda and individuals and elements affiliated with al-Qaeda has certainly been on the rise operationally and Libya during the past -- I'm certainly they have exploited power vacuums.

-- generate various militia groups.

Let me also say that I think one of the big things that I know you wanted to discuss it is really.

The mess that we're now seeing in terms of the Obama administration's management.

Communications about the tragic events on what I would call 9/11 2.0.

I think the unclassified questions the Obama administration does not want to address before the 2012 election revolved around the roles cutter played with permission from the Obama administration and equipping -- -- and Libya.

The -- the US played.

-- Libyan rebels and the uses of those weapons and tactics like the ones probably employed in the terrorist attacks that killed 4 Americans in eastern Libya on September 11 2012.

As well of course what we see is an operationally resurgent al-Qaeda in the post bin Laden and post their spring -- -- -- why you think that they would have done that why -- the motivation thing.

The Obama administrative yeah.

Well I think that it's got a real mess on its hands because from a policy perspective it had a lot of opportunities to go win.

Especially in Bolivia during the air spring and begin to capture re capture or kill a lot of on the US consulate in big Gaza.

The policy however was one of inaction as we typically see with the Obama administration when confronted with these sort of radical Islamist related concerns.

What are things that strikes may have there's a long a student of revolutions whether it's the Russian revolution the American revolution.

Is that once you topple the dictator what happens next newscast and man in that chaos.

Bubble up groups like al-Qaeda like jihadist -- try to hijack the original.

Revolutions -- was -- things going on now.

Well I'm not I'm not absolutely certain about that I think that what we've seen post -- -- -- is much stronger influence being asserted by the Muslim Brotherhood and as we know the Muslim Brotherhood.

Leaders like he's about -- now we don't necessarily play well with Al -- -- leader Ayman -- watery but.

We did see a different dynamic and certainly strong relations between the brotherhood in various al-Qaeda figures are a country by country basis particularly in Yemen.

Now of course we -- -- -- in Egypt that -- -- Top political player Egypt's new president.

It certainly accommodating.

The use of Egypt as safe haven for a lot of high profile figures who've been involved with the global Jihad which we typically think of -- being -- -- led by al-Qaeda.

You know meanwhile I think.

We might want to look upon the September 11 when he -- attacks and similar events in this fight al-Qaeda.

And I think just like the present -- -- -- -- qaeda's global Jihad which is Ron.

At a much easier time -- policy -- in Washington then leadership vacuums during their spring.

OK well thank you very much that's a pretty thorough assessment Michael Smith from crown us advisory -- huge and I asked my.

What turned -- -- another part of the world there's that again I think very few people are paying attention to and that's Russia what's going on with Russia.

Russia last weekend and Vladimir Putin the new -- -- once and future.

President.

Russia the -- been reelected on anti American platform to become president of Russia -- has closed.

The USA ID offices.

In Russia and joining me to talk about this as one of our favorites are back -- -- -- now The Heritage Foundation Rebecca thanks so much for joining us.

Hi Casey thanks for having me now you a lot about Russia.

The failed restart of a relationship between the United States and Russia action -- -- more.

As evidence that it hasn't worked out from the fact that Russia's busy closing our -- what's going on.

Blood -- -- has achieved two of his.

Goals by closing down these offices yesterday.

Com and so as we try to cooperate with NGOs in Russia.

He's going to close us down there and as his other golf course this is to attack these pro democracy movements in Russia.

And these NGOs that are cooperating with USA ID.

-- -- then also going to be negatively and impacted.

By kicking out USA ID so couldn't has achieved to the schools here in doing so KT.

Yeah you want to pick a fight with the United States right now I -- one Henry I met with the Russian.

Treasury minister the equivalent of their Treasury Secretary a couple of months ago.

And he said -- who really eager for foreign investment we want American companies and international companies.

To invest in Russia.

Build manufacturing plants partner with us so why you couldn't pick a fight with the United States on one hand while on the other hand trying to get us to invest in -- country.

Anti American sentiment is still a very popular sentiment and Russia.

And so -- -- has used.

Anti American propaganda to kind of get a lot of support behind him.

-- -- helps him control his own power within Russia.

So so lie under -- is using the United States and all of our influence it's not even just within Russia I'm more the United States tries to do good things.

I'm in stopping Iran's nuclear program for instance then Glover -- has a lot to say about that he doesn't want to help.

Or regarding Syria.

So it did help -- live here couldn't.

When the United States looks bad and when an and frankly about what we're going to make a full of Barack Obama which is what he has done by kicking out USA ID.

Clinton switch to a bit gears to missile defense and -- -- -- in Iran has now.

Sanctions haven't work step diplomacy hasn't worked yet both presidential candidates.

Are talking about we've got to stop Iran from having nuclear weapons you're an expert on missile defense I would think that whatever else we should be doing right now.

We should be building missile defense systems because if nobody does stop Iran Iran gets nuclear weapons and has missiles capable.

Just of reaching Israel but ultimately the United States missile defense is something we should have right.

That's absolutely right.

President Obama has failed so far in making -- Very clear statement that that leader of Iran -- and Ahmadinejad can understand.

That the United States is 100% absolutely.

Intolerant of Iran acquiring nuclear weapon.

But if Iran does acquire nuclear weapon.

If the United States fails to use military off then use the military option to prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon if we need to have we failed to do so.

Iran obtains nuclear weapon Iran will be able to.

Blackmail the United States they'll be able to do whatever they want the region in the United States won't be able to do much about it all we will have.

Is a the very limited missile defense system that would be able to intercept an incoming missile headed towards the United States.

And so didn't frankly the past four years this president has has really failed to strengthen and revised and close the gaps that our current system Marty has.

And then we actually had an opportunity to do so over the past four years.

Okay here's sort of -- is coming together why is Russia so against the United States having.

And ability to defend itself against Iranian missiles these are not ministries are not defense systems.

Aimed at Russia they're aimed at protecting the United States from third parties and protect your lawyer -- Why does the Russians so.

You know thank -- rounds or whenever we try to build defense systems.

-- there's multiple reasons one of them is this is this was Ronald Reagan's idea.

Back in the eighties during the height of the Cold War when President Reagan said we can do better than threatening.

Davis Soviet Union United States from threatening one another with -- nuclear holocaust we can do better than this and so why don't we build a defense -- system that would make nuclear weapons obsolete.

So ever since then the Russians have hated.

Missile defense so there's some sort of there's some sort of just kind of emotional response.

Another reason is -- as the United States builds up these systems indeed defense of systems they not only come protect United States get to protect our allies in Europe if we deploy them in Europe.

Russia doesn't like.

A missile at an American president presents.

In the former Soviet Union and it doesn't like that it's a power struggle and I would say third KT is probably the most important to me.

Is that although our current system is unable to defend against the Russian and and Chinese actually I'm arsenal's right now it's very limited -- sophisticated enough yet.

It's not -- for that purposes and eventually.

And some of these systems could some -- -- radar systems cut although they're not designed to they're designed to defend against.

Iran -- and North Korean missiles.

But the Russians know that and the Russians are afraid of that but I would say we're in a post Cold War environment in which we have multiple nuclear actors and the United States.

Needs to be able to defend itself.

From everyone from wherever wherever nuclear weapons can come from.

Now wreck -- viewing history lesson.

When I was a young speech writer working at the Pentagon I wrote the first draft of president Reagan's Star Wars speech are the -- nobody remembers President Reagan himself broke apart everybody remembers.

But you're absolutely right his idea was that we could have a defensive system to render nuclear weapons obsolete because if the United States could defend itself.

For many incoming nuclear attack nobody's even gonna try to go in that direction and sadly.

That's not not what the United States has been doing for the last several years and -- defense program.

Did you go to a final thing.

Rebecca which is to talk to me about.

Sanctions you know you would have been about -- various organizations trying to -- -- sanctions on Iran to get them to stop their nuclear weapons program peacefully.

The sanctions don't seem to have worked and -- You look at the Iranian economy in the news in the last two days is -- -- -- dollars call the -- has fallen by 50%.

Why haven't the sanctions worked and what would it take.

To have the sanctions work -- for the Iranian regime.

To decide that -- to go nuclear weapons or -- Iranian people to go back into the streets like Arab Spring.

We use the previous guess you just had was talking about on how.

For China they Carolina about the economy they want economic prosperity.

The Iranian people -- -- regime is very different the Iranian regime.

Time is an ideologically driven our regime.

That hates the United States and hates Israel.

So as we tighten the sanctions and the the sense that the sanctions are in fact hurting the people they -- there like you said the the dollar the Iranian dollar.

Has its essentially been cut and I'm devalued by more than half.

So the people are feeling it.

On the economy is feeling it in late in yet you still have the dictator that country Ahmadinejad saying.

It still isn't going to slow down our nuclear program because they understand that that's how they play ball.

-- with the United States and Israel.

Great well thank you so much Rebecca pirates from The Heritage Foundation in Washington.

But what we call this issue out now I'm gonna read really fast because we've gotten unbelievably good comments and questions and -- -- -- just a few -- them.

One is from Trevor -- wrong during the green revolution missed their opportunity.

Syria during the current revolution missed another opportunity Lilly writes from China.

I say this Gordon Chang guy really knows his stuff telling -- real economic situation like it is.

And finally -- -- sandy says.

Why was the ambassador and Ben Ghazi didn't have an armored car.

That's it for -- country today thanks for joining in the discussions with your questions and comments national security issues are no -- gonna continue.

But Intel next week at Defcon three you're gonna have to watch foxnews.com -- I have to get the story.

Now we -- -- also tell you there to back in tonight.

Need to foxnews.com.

Live and -- live -- that.

At 845 tonight to watch the debates thanks so much -- --