Power Play 10-03-2012
Obama looks to keep Romney on defense, state of the race ahead of the debate and video reveals a very different Obama
Oct 3, 2012
Michael Barone, David Winston,
Obama looks to keep Romney on defense, state of the race ahead of the debate and video reveals a very different Obama
Oct 3, 2012
Michael Barone, David Winston,
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Here are three examples are likely hear from -- tonight.
And -- will need you to -- on deficit taxes and jobs.
First the deficit still say he's going to cut the deficit.
He wants to trillion dollars in new defense spending at the Pentagon didn't ask for a five trillion dollar tax cuts you -- the wealthy -- -- won't say how he'll pay for it.
And he pledges not to raise even a penny of new revenue.
It was deficit promise is just a joke.
Act was Stephanie Cutter the deputy campaign manager of Barack Obama's presidential campaign.
Asking you Internet or at least the left side -- -- Internet.
Two -- the president's attacks.
That he intends to make on Mitt Romney in their first debate tonight that takes place in Denver.
And this is power play where we are talking to a 100% of the Internet and high and Chris -- -- Welcome and in fact we know this that one -- won that day from -- 24 hours from now when I talk to you next.
Presidential race will look different.
How different in whose favor how will the dynamics be changed after the first meeting.
Between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
Well we thought we might as well get some of the -- smartest people in politics to tell you today so we have arranged.
Or none other than Michael Barone you maestro.
He is -- senior political analyst for the Washington examiner.
He is -- fellow the American enterprise a resident fellow which means -- let -- keep the cop in his office.
At the American enterprise institute and he is for all of you must be political junkies if you -- watching this.
The principal editor and author of the almanac of American politics the -- Political nerds everywhere remember and we welcome him well thank you -- political -- indeed indeed indeed you are that you are the godfather.
Now is somebody who manages to know a lot about politics -- is no nerd.
Is Brit Hume who is -- Fox News Channel senior political analyst.
Mister -- is as always our great good fortune have you with us today from Denver.
Thank you Chris glad to be here.
OK so here's the question.
We have seen.
This election process that President Obama.
Does not seem to like Mitt Romney very much.
Has been 88 staunchly negative campaign by the president and we've seen insider accounts.
From a lot of media outlets -- president really doesn't have any respect for Mitt Romney.
And you received from -- cutter today.
They're going to hope to see.
A lot of attacks on Romney's record including Romney on the defense.
That is not where Mitt Romney wants to be.
I would say not.
You never want to be on defense.
On the other hand Chris.
It's important for Romney to be ready.
To respond to some attacks but not all -- and you can brush often ignore some may be a very kinds of things that voters have heard about from him.
And would like to hear his side.
So he's gonna have to distinguish.
Quickly in his mind.
When to respond and defend and when not to bother and continue -- his own assault or whatever he's trying to do towards president.
Now there and Internet mr.
Hume was making reference my column today my power play that I wrote for you that you can have just by following immediate cease tire -- on Twitter which I would urge you to do.
Because you I'm sure.
Like many tens of thousands of Americans -- follow.
-- at Kim's first which is a very worthwhile follow.
But what I wrote today was that for Romney if he finds himself answering to many charges.
He will look defensive and he will look.
-- -- And but certainly mr.
-- no doubt that for -- he does have to look.
Like -- is ready -- to the question is a good point of delineation for those perhaps questions posed to him by the moderator Jim Lehrer.
And the things that President Obama is going to needles that President Obama is going -- embedded his answers.
PS community yes sir.
Do you know -- -- get -- around he's right.
Well look I -- Malia and normally that the the the handlers of of of a candidate in the debate go off and say look.
If the question lead you somewhere you want to go answer it.
It's -- question -- lead you somewhere you don't want to go dancers something else.
And the truth of the matter is that that's pretty good strategy is when you get down to it these debates whatever else they may be.
-- our campaign events just like any other in many respects.
And candidates have certain messages are trying to bring across because they're they've been looking at the polls and they've been talking to voters -- doing focus groups.
And they know what they want to say it is certain segments of the electorate and they here's a big opportunity to do with a gigantic audience on television so on so.
They'll try to do that and and it frustrates moderator isn't it sometimes frustrates the audience that the audience in the hall of that the -- doesn't appear to be answering.
The question asked but sometimes it's the smartest thing to do politically.
This over in terms of tonight last question.
king is this.
How higher the stakes really we've seen what I think have described as a lot of hyper ventilation about what the stakes are for Romney tonight make or break moment etc.
By your assessment what are the real stakes tonight.
Well Chris it's a high wire act you're out there on the stage standing shoulder to shoulder with the person you're trying to defeat.
It's an important moment there's no getting around that but the history of the presidential debate suggests.
That they are very rarely decisive and they are very rarely are turning points.
What tends to happen is people go into the debates either for one candidate -- the other they come out.
Of the debate fill in the same way.
Then in this election with so few votes apparently up -- -- -- so many months -- -- made up that is likely to be true again.
However it's also the case it for Romney in particular.
Who appears to be behind.
If he needs to reach out somehow somewhere along the -- on the road -- the next few weeks starting tonight.
And change some minds to get people who were either not gonna vote or thinking about voting for Obama who or who voted for him before Obama before.
To vote for him so old debate can be a -- where things happen where he emerges from the debate within gives people a different impression -- they had of him.
And stands in contrast to president that might work out to be a very good impression so.
There's an opportunity here seuss' the big moments don't all don't often happening debates.
An event with mile high perspective we gave you Brit Hume mr.
Hume thank you very much have a great time and -- Chris.
All right brother around so.
-- -- The fact that most debates are boring.
And we remember the debates.
That where something big happen precisely because they are so rare you don't usually get those.
Big -- moments right.
Well we remember the electric moments but you know these debates can make some difference in races that are relatively close and the two George W.
Elections he got helped in the first debates and by our Al -- -- sign and so forth.
He seemed to be taking something of -- victory lap in 2004.
In his lead was was diminished at that point in the challenger John Kerry.
Moved you know up in the polls not enough to win as it turned out but significantly.
I think Mitt Romney has to.
Is respond or save you from two bits of embarrassing video one -- his embarrassing that the 47%.
Comment he's got to talk about the 100%.
It got to talk about this specifically is he's beginning to do -- -- stop about how his policies.
Can't produce the kind of economic growth and improve people's lives.
I think he you know the other safety was -- -- Joseph Biden.
And embarrassing video and worship many to choose from one where you say -- Anatolia bet this there in the middle class has been buried for the last four years.
-- -- Mitt Romney an opportunity.
-- attacked the record in this administration and I think he needs to make the additional point.
Contrary to what Bill Clinton was suggesting that the democratic national -- -- -- -- -- there that the kind of policies they're they've promised to follow it that -- not gonna produce results that are -- better if anything they're gonna get worse and you know the creditors are gonna as the bond markets could -- bid.
That's not how -- phrase and debate since it's not a familiar term -- that you're gonna have real problems.
The end you know I think this is debating conservative Republican circles you know should Romney would be.
You know sort of -- Molly Upton tried it pretty people think he's a nice sweet guy or should he sharply attacked the president.
I think the stronger -- -- sharply attacking Romney showed he was capable of doing that with Rick Perry -- brigade pitch in the primary debates.
For much of his life has been used to being treated with nothing but actually should.
It's unusual for him not to.
-- and it's incumbent presidents are usually treated with nothing but adulation.
Very few people are willing to go into that Oval Office is that you just wrong about that what you -- me it's no sense at all.
-- you can see it go back a couple of years when fox news's -- there.
I know -- -- the media interview the president the president bristled it was uncomfortable when Brett kept pressing on some issues that you didn't want to talk about.
We've seen it in his response to Paul Ryan at that Blair house summit.
We saw recently in the Univision interview where he didn't like it one bit Michael that they were asking tough questions purchase say the new Vizio if you -- -- We have taken great -- power -- says this and remember.
For Mitt Romney.
The name of the game is to get Obama off of his game in the way that he can do that best -- -- points out is by puncturing.
The cloud of presidential privilege.
We'll see how effective he is doing -- We'll talk more about that we'll also talk about polling that shows a tight race we'll talk about that video that Michael referenced.
And we'll do it all in just a moment.
So do stick around.
Trying to get down because of the couple polls that come out but so has been behind -- a few states.
That was Marco Rubio who says yeah Mitt Romney's behind polls.
Big deal he's about to change the election don't you know with a debate performance tonight.
Not exactly -- expectation senator and this is power play welcome back.
And what is the state of the race because as we said earlier I guess -- -- Said earlier that in fact we know that the race is gonna look different tomorrow so what does it look like right now as we go into this hinge moment.
These forward made the first of these four debates that will take place of the month of October.
What is the race really look like now.
And you know Michael -- knows this he's very Smart community anyway.
You go to the Washington -- Washington examiner dot com after you read everything at Fox News -- after you click every possible link.
But also somebody who has an idea.
David Winston he is the president of the Winston group that makes him and Republican pollster now we should stipulated and at that we had.
-- democratic pollster in Bernard Whitman who was supposed to be here and do battle.
Do battle with data into that but apparently based on your last -- you terrified him so much.
That he was not willing to face again.
Well I guess I armed with -- numbers certainly helped a fearsome gladiator.
Statistics all right so let's just start with the top line assessment.
New polls out today from the Wall Street Journal and also another batch of swing state polls from the journal and Marist College.
Say this the race is tightening after -- database wounded.
That coupled I mean you know it's a close race and two point cancers swallow him but after a bit this -- for Mitt Romney.
All -- most polls show a new tightening of the race back into this kind of statistical tie.
So let's start with you David what is the state of the race.
It's I think at this point it's either even or slight edge to the president at this point very slight edge it is closer to -- close up a bit in the sense that.
I I think.
The Obama campaign felt that well we don't really have to do anything -- sort of maintain its equilibrium I think that's -- different I think tonight and that and that debate -- matters a lot more.
The other thing that we're seeing terms of these holes and from my -- one way in this book is.
Part of the pundits pollsters are having to disclose terms what does this electric gonna look like it's going to be that.
For electric for the 2008 electorate in 2004 party identification was even.
It was plus seven -- it's gonna land somewhere between us but we've seen certain holes where they've actually gone beyond that plus evidence of this is going to be actually a better environment.
For Democrats in 2008 and I think part of what you're watching -- -- all these -- struggle with what -- -- -- -- -- We will not quote.
Mark Twain as it relates to -- -- -- statisticians.
Michael what is the state of the race.
Well I think Barack Obama is a hit but not by much is within reach by Mitt Romney.
The real clear politics average of recent pulses.
Closed from a four point Obama -- -- three point Obama the -- -- -- little -- -- the trailing indicator we've -- that.
That National Journal polling today showing yeah I think at 747.
It Christine some group in they showed Romney hit 5737.
Among people 75000.
This is a much better performance for Republican presidential candidate among affluent voters.
They were even.
In the last race -- democratic candidate was running yeah among voters over 75 over a 100000.
If that's indicative of other polls that we don't know whether it is.
That's a switch that could that could help Mitt Romney.
Back in April I said that was something that might happen right -- got 20% likelihood I said.
The other thing I think we have to remember polling consumers is that the polling instrument is growing weaker as a result of technology.
You know learning is cumulative pollsters have gotten better over the years but we had forty years of polling.
In -- country from mid sixties to the mid two thousands which show basically had universal ownership of landline telephones -- people answered their phones.
We do not live in that country any war.
According to the one of the government statistic agency's 34% of households in the second half of 2011.
-- land -- cell phone only households.
Pollsters have to make it -- it's more expensive.
To call holds the cellphone only and pollsters have to make a decision how many cell phone or cellphone only people to interview -- to include in their sample.
And the fact is -- that perhaps David disagrees but.
They don't know what this electorate it's gonna look like in terms of cell -- only.
Percentage so they are guessing cellphone only people are probably more democratic than others of the decision you make affects the results you get.
Now and and he's clearly one of the decisions that a that a -- -- at this point is going to have your appointment of how many cell phone and if -- do you have as a part of your overall -- I'm and that number is increasing -- as time goes on we'll travelers become the majority of some kind of we have to -- Having said that that's why again I go back into the look at exit polls from previous -- not intended as you're looking at this data when it comes in.
You want to be able to put in some sort of context that's way it is now about the 20082004.
Given some sense in terms of your political.
So that we know something we know is this Michael's point.
Who answers the phone I mean answering your house phone is like totally in 1977.
Well you've got a caller ID now.
You're not know -- when you see random number come up.
You in answering that call and doesn't the same hold true to certain degree and I always go back to this into the Scott Brown election in Massachusetts on exit polls.
You know who's not gonna participate -- an example some middle class middle -- white beard.
Who is leaving a polling place and that win a Boston university graduate student with a -- walks up to him and says would you like to answer a few questions about your vote today says bona.
Well part of what part of what the exit polls do particularly a couple of days afterwards as they really sort of goes through re -- everything just to make sure that they and I don't know -- no no -- and an al-Qaeda -- them accessible so valuable is the only data set that is actually -- -- Actual election returns that's what I acquisition sub groups Yankee -- and good size center finally got around a hundred people were talking about a -- -- You needed to do -- better.
The Pew Research Center has recorded -- they're only getting that completed interviews 9% of the calls that they placed.
Compared to fifteen years ago in 1997 that was 36%.
It raises the question are those 9% representative of the voting public.
-- and we know from -- of Moses David says.
Partly through interview were -- but partly through responded to our willingness to be poll late orbit -- conducted a study of this.
That that the exit polls have consistently come in more democratic sometimes much worked at all except country.
Democrats are more -- -- get off -- -- that 9%.
The -- they have a disproportionate number of Democrats willing to be interviewed.
That hole is going to be a representative of the -- Now look at -- we simply don't know what they let me have when you know you cannot I know it is good I know it is excellent and we will stipulate or whatever you were going to say.
But I truly awesome David we think you're making time for us you identified.
And delighted the Internet which like Smart people so we'd like that OK we have to take a quick break but guess what if you can just hold fast very briefly while we take this pause when you come back.
You'll have not only discussion of president Obama's video with your friend Mike Emanuel the great Mike Emanuel.
But also you'll have some power points -- you'll have your friend Charles so it sounds like it would be who -- that.
To stick around.
Divide America won't.
Polls will provide.
We won't forget where we came -- we won't forget what happened nineteen month ago or fifteen years ago.
Or 300 years.
And that was -- varied.
Different Barack Obama campaigning for president back in 2007.
-- talking to a group of black religious leaders -- Hampton University.
And it recently surfaced video and this is power play.
So here's the question for Barack Obama you heard him there speaking.
The very almost African American dialect.
Talking about the grievances 300 your grievances of slavery talking about the years he's also -- -- -- -- the years from the Rodney King beating.
In Los Angeles which had been fifteen years before and what he said was racially tinged neglect of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina.
So you don't hear that not much.
And you certainly didn't hear much of that -- 2004.
I mean he was the shining light put forward as no Black -- -- white America no red America no blue America when he spoke with the Democratic National Convention.
So why did he do that.
Why did he do that in 2007 when he tries against Hillary Clinton.
So we thought you would be well advised to -- -- people you know Mike Emanuel as a person who knows because he covers politics tomorrow.
Whatever else is needed -- in the course of the day here at the Fox News channels Washington bureau and Michael -- knows because he knows almost everything.
And so here Mike is the question.
Where did this video come from why haven't we -- Well he was from 2007 when the crowded with a field was crowded if candidates and so at that point well I did get some coverage.
It didn't get a whole lot of coverage because -- was initially based on the remarks as prepared.
A lot of the most controversial things were the remarks as delivered so he had lived a lot of the most -- -- -- commercial aspects of it.
So at that point 2007 low for the first primaries there were not.
You know -- was not wall to wall coverage of these people because there are a bunch of the milling around going different places in perhaps look at today's scheduled.
That was not one of the -- Hot items he was a serious long shot at the time Michael and just as he did.
When he was running for the state senate in Illinois and and just as he did in a failed bid to get -- house -- from Bobby Rush in Illinois 2000 in 2000 injustice he did when he was and seeing the democratic nomination for senate.
A big part of his identity was though he had written as -- -- -- his books about cultural conflict that he belonged white America or Black America even raising part of receives.
Where did he fit in this identity crisis.
He definitely identified himself though in sort of this mainstream.
Of the black.
Reverend Wright's church and things like that aren't.
Yes he did an end.
As Mike noted this was a time when you have multiple things and if you were seeking -- -- just put a camera Joseph Biden was -- -- he's able to Chris -- go to Chris -- thousand dollars -- 2000 interview his voter.
But the fact is.
You know what -- believe that the pulling up through December if you look at polling of South Carolina democratic primary up through December 2007.
Where a majority of democratic primary voters in South Carolina are African Americans you would see that -- Barack Obama was splitting the black vote with Hillary Clinton.
-- and to win the nomination.
He really needed to capture all of the black vote if you go back over history in democratic primaries as well as general elections black voters have a tendency to go all in for one candidate I mean I've heard black preachers black politicians.
Speak to community groups and they talk about unity all the time.
This is that people were aware that they're part of the minority group that they thought that might through unity they could be stronger which is a plausible argument.
And so Obama was trying to bring you in effect make this sort of unity argument that this historically black college -- university Hampton University.
And job to try and switch that black vote from -- 5050 for -- you know Hillary Clinton.
Wife of the supposedly first black president if somebody said.
You can get all of that himself and if you look at the polling in South Carolina between December 2011.
In after he hit his victory in the Iowa Caucuses that's indeed what happened Hillary Clinton got negligible numbers of votes from black Americans despite her husband's record and a world record.
Many issues that many of them care about him Obama got about monopoly.
Got my without that he wouldn't have won the democratic nomination stipulated.
-- for the Obama campaign they are key -- they do not like that this video's been circulated again.
You'll want Jeremiah Wright.
Not being in the -- he's just saying the video by the way he lavished praise and Jeremiah Wright who he would do its own.
It just six months later that crowded area under the bus.
Now with his grandmother ball well.
-- I like I'm sorry sacks just from your network talk I think it's something it probably did wrong for pro yet exactly but we thank you very much an experiment that's but and -- we of course that is true.
And now for key power points.
The first and the question is what to look for in tonight's debate.
First thing to look for our canned goods and the goods are singers or one liners or by Hamas that both of these candidates have been to -- themselves with -- they do the most.
Exhaustive did debate.
Preparations in rehearsal of any two candidates in history.
So you'll be able to tell these clunkers when they roll them out.
And they will look probably like a couple of canned -- when they deliver them so that's thing one to look for I think to -- -- gotten questions and this goes.
Two -- one will be the forgotten questions that these candidates thought that they had dispatched in the past that Jim Blair will be.
Needling them about and bring back old questions that they thought they dealt with in the past.
The other forgotten questions will be the ones that the candidates themselves forget when they give their answers and say something totally different.
Then what was asked of them and that's just what politicians do it's how they roll.
The third thing to watch for is alpha males and and for both of these guys what they wanna do is look like they're the big -- on stage and -- running as a one inch height advantage on the president with air to.
And what he will be doing is trying to show that he is.
Going mono mono presents -- -- and they shaking hands and grab each other's elbows it may very well turn into a wrestling match up there is that two of them try to talk to each other in the middle.
And as long as of peoples and Al Gore slash Rick Lazio and goes over and invades the other guys space it will basically be.
Like to Silverbacks beating each -- chest beating and beating their chest on the other side of the stage so that's always entertaining to watch maybe -- Riley would -- body language segment on that.
And they'll tell you.
So that's what that is the charles' -- apparently was eaten by the machine in New York.
We're sorry about that it was very good he would have enjoyed it because he talked.
About the UB bin Laden bin Laden is dead but al-Qaeda is alive you really would have delighted to it I'm not trying to taunt you.
But I have two pieces of recompense for you I have some solace slim as it may be without Charles number one.
What are you doing tonight.
Would you like to hang out with me I think you should I think you should go right here to live dot foxnews.com.
And you should watch the coverage tonight it will be anchored -- by Harris Faulkner -- out in New York they have allowed me to come to the party and I'll be here talking.
You love those so we'll Doug shown and other people from around the country you know that's a pretty big deal so we are treating it accordingly.
And the other thing that you can look forward to is that Jonathan Hunt remains with you still he is not going to -- -- for the human anymore he promises or at least not for awhile.
So on the hunt with Jonathan Hunt is up next.
And I will be here for you tonight.
And I will be back with you tomorrow morning to break it all down so thanks for your time we'll see --
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