Deeper look at drop in unemployment rate
Does new report accurately reflect job market?
- Duration 6:24
- Date Oct 5, 2012
Does new report accurately reflect job market?
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-- -- numbers out this morning as I'm sure you're aware that his point seven say pointing through point to really break breakthrough in the recovery.
-- obliterate falling below 8% for the first time.
An almost four years but a deeper look.
Shows a little bit different picture is so we wanted to show this -- you might hear a lot about this U six rates right that measures people who are.
Not fully employed -- wannabe.
The -- of times people call this you know the other unemployment rate.
The latest report shows that the U six rate stays at the same fourteen point 7% hasn't changed it is -- we saw that drop in the unemployment rate.
So this is a number we're keeping in mind because over the last six the last several months.
I 600000 people got part time work.
Hi this is one of the reasons that we can see a lower.
Overall unemployment rate.
And not necessarily see a drop in that.
Broader unemployment rates because people have part time jobs.
Not full time jobs like they probably want let's bring in our jobs panel Jim Cassidy senior vice president for policy and co-founder third -- as a former.
Legislative and policy director to democratic senator Chuck Schumer of New York.
And John Engler is the president of the business roundtable and the former Republican governor of Michigan welcome -- you -- nice have you on the program.
-- -- -- Jim let me say when you hear this -- and this is coming this comes up every single time we get jobs report about whether or not the books are cooked -- whether or not we're getting an accurate reading on the economy.
In this conversation always comes up is is coming up more because -- right by presidential election.
What's your response when you hear that we hear concerns from people that maybe this is an inaccurate reading on the job market.
I'm so two points one is.
And these numbers are always wrong -- I mean.
There are done on surveys and there's revisions they're done over and over and over again and if you look in 2009.
Almost all of the revisions.
-- when they will look back.
Maybe jobs numbers worse and then looking back in 2011 and 2012.
The revisions have generally made previous months.
-- the people who put this together.
Statisticians -- mean this is what they love to do they don't cook the books they're they're the most.
And he you know -- this class treasurers of every.
Cleaning job weakness -- don't envy and be their job.
And governor let me get your -- -- -- let me get your gotten -- governor because held us at least the the labor secretary canines and listen I'm insulted when he will bring an -- because our people.
In the Labor Department did not do this -- just your thoughts overall you've been a businessman for a long time in Austin politics would he say to our viewers that are like.
-- know about this number.
While their -- -- gonna be your go to the unemployment rate was diapers that it's good to see it.
Coming down we're still way behind where we would should be -- normal recovery this is a very tepid.
Recovery but it's just good to see people going back to work it.
And I think the season retiree health is no question about that you -- disappoint you see the manufacturing jobs drop a little bit but.
Indeed we do to get people back works good for America we just -- a lot more of it and we need it didn't have needed it for some time.
Exhibit to the point that you made -- manufacturing because not only did you have experience as governor Michigan but Josh rip offs -- the CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers.
As ever viewers have asked questions about whether or not we're seeing seasonal hiring is -- get.
Closer to the holiday so how much a factor you think that really as governor.
Well Halloween the second largest retail holiday that we have so it gives it's a factor -- I have not gonna say that that's the whole story it isn't.
But it's just good to see it coming down.
When the back to the first quarter of the year we always ask -- CEOs every quarter what it ain't gonna happen in six months and -- it to begin in March.
-- he had they said that that's going to be a strong hiring period.
But what they said didn't second quarter to a third quarter.
As they're looking for continued weakness so we've gone down.
Three consecutive quarters in terms of the expectations six months from now that's what worries mean well without a solid strategy -- can we can week.
Is this just a blip down -- -- first time we've got below 8% almost four years.
I'd I'd just like to see America.
-- -- -- people who work and that things are real solid growth strategy and at the roundtable we think we've offered some wonderful ideas for that.
Well we'd love to hear some of those ideas -- that.
Bring Jim into this conversation as well because.
One of the things we're also getting Jim is taking a look at all the economic data we after remind everybody that this number does look backwards on September -- in October so it's reflecting the past little bit.
We we did today GDP number that showed that were barely growing at a little bit over 1% as far as the entire economy so.
It is seven point 8%.
Like I had a great number I mean in quote unquote normal times would be look at seven point 8% saying that's a pretty good number is this is -- -- -- You know looking a lot better then the last several years.
Well it's looking a lot better than the last several years and the seven point eight is a great number of your coming down and it's not a great number if you're going out there in -- direction if I'm not looked up.
That obviously the you wouldn't we want the economy to do better but I do think this is a broadly positive report and one of the numbers that I think -- Did is very under reported is the increase in the hourly work week.
It is now up to 34 point five hours per week.
That is the number who was that pre recession and that is really -- -- did it ever gets when you get higher than that number.
It means that you have to go to basically you have to hire people I think that's the reason why you're seeing.
This move to part time work I think it is a directional move from part time to pull out.
-- hope that is it governor just a real quick final on that because we saw 600000 more people with a part time jobs do you see like Jim do you agree with Jeanette maybe that's a precursor towards.
Club for a full employment or is that still telling us -- the economy's weekend.
People aren't getting offered for job full time job.
I I think we have a lot of reluctance to commit the full time employment -- is a clear picture -- -- the economy's headed and Jenna you've made the point.
The -- GDP -- -- is a measure of economic growth and activity.
And we might be the strongest week men standing around but that's not nearly good enough and not nearly where our potential is if we get it right in terms some of the policy and direction.
We love to have you both back on the talk about the policy after a busy we get is these numbers -- important context for all of us Jim.
And governor thank you so much for joining us today -- feel that --