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Is the jobless rate really under 8 percent?

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  • Description

    Labor report reflecting falling jobless rate stirs campaign firestorm

  • Duration 3:26
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This transcript is automatically generated

Take a look at this tweet that he sent out quoting here.

Unbelievable jobs numbers these Chicago guys will do any thing can't debate so change the numbers.

But the labor secretary -- so -- called these sorts of accusations Ludacris.

Adding quote I'm insulted when I hear that because we have a very professional civil service organization.

These are our best trained in most skilled individuals.

Jack -- by the way will be Neil Cavuto is guest on your world.

The next hour joining us now chief business correspondent for US news and world report.

Rick Newman he is also the author of the book rebounder is how winners pivot from six from set back.

Your success Rick good to see -- first of all you don't think anybody's cooking the books here all right.

Now I never thought I'd say this about Jack -- a very accomplished -- is subject -- executive obviously but his suggestion is really just silly.

I mean there's a lot of variation in those surveys we heard about that just a few moments ago.

What's very likely to happen is in the next month or two you know these numbers often -- too -- -- too -- and in the next set of numbers comes out may revise those numbers.

And they they start to come those two -- start to come a little closer together so there were some oddities in this survey but there are all often oddities in those surveys they just don't get the kind of attention it's getting this time because we're now.

Barely a month away from the election.

Can you talk about attention here Rick you know you look at the numbers here 1141000.

Jobs -- still pretty anemic when you look at the big picture here but man all day long you keep seeing that big number of flash on the screen right seven point 8% unemployment.

And -- -- in the president's camp.

That looks good.

-- he whether that is a legitimate number or not he's going to get the benefit of it for the next month or so because he can go around and say we got unemployment under 8%.

What is possible is that unemployed the unemployment rate will actually go back up to 8% or a little bit higher than 8%.

The next chart report -- comes out November 2 that's four days.

Before the election.

And that's going to be the one that's really gonna make a difference if any of these reports will make a difference.

And some economists are saying sure that -- could easily go back up because the better the economy gets.

The more people come off the sidelines people that I basically given up looking for work they start looking for jobs again.

And suddenly they get counted as unemployed which tends to push the unemployment rate up that's a normal.

That's a normal thing that typically happens in a recovery and if it started happening this recovery would not be -- -- but it would not help President Obama so much of that happens a month from now.

And in -- -- you're talking about what governor Romney's talking about the campaign trail today which is labor participation rates saying that look.

If they were as many people in the labor force today as there were when President Obama took office.

The unemployment rate would be near 11% and and he's right on.

He is generally right on that that was not have enough feature in the latest report that participation rate actually I think ticked up a little bit.

That's a good thing but absolutely over time this is a long term change in the economy there are just fewer people in the workforce.

And it's unclear where that's going to go I think it's not realistic to think that everybody who had a job before the recession.

-- necessarily have a job after the recession because a lot of those jobs are gone.

So that what every -- is some fairly major change it's happening in -- in the machinery of the economy if you will and that's gonna take a long time to play out.

Rick Newman with the US news and world report Rick good to see you thank you Jeremy.

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