Post-debate changes on the electoral map
Karl Rove, Joe Trippi break down the numbers
- Duration 7:22
- Date Oct 8, 2012
Karl Rove, Joe Trippi break down the numbers
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We are less than a month away from Election Day in much of the country is already taking part in early voting we are taking our weekly look.
At how the Electoral College map is shaping up.
Joining me again today are Carl rove former bush senior advisor he's in Las Vegas today and here in Washington.
Democratic strategist Joseph Trippi OK gentlemen let's take a look at the map as we always do you can see the info on the -- red states Romney.
Blue Obama than the pinkish those are -- Romney states like blue lean Obama and the yellow states those are tossup states.
Within the margin of error this is based on polls.
Within the last thirty days OK Carl.
What has changed since the last time we talked last week.
What we had 44 polls last week and 22 states there -- three changes in status to benefiting President Obama New Hampshire went from tossup to lean Obama.
New Mexico went from lean Obama to Obama and one change in status benefiting -- Iowa went from lean Obama to toss up.
Romney gains at the end Colorado Ohio Virginia and Wisconsin all battleground states but no change in status in those and Missouri and Nevada.
Became stronger for Obama -- -- no change -- status for those.
Of that Joseph what do you see as important.
All those states -- -- Romney even though they haven't changed status matter but Ohio is the real interesting thing because.
When you look at it both -- -- -- -- we throughout our marriage -- that happened some time ago with an eight point lead for Obama.
We threw that out this we'd be moving it's a toss up today.
And that be very significant and -- -- you when you look at a tree -- line of Ohio though.
Throughout the whole campaign.
Romney's never actually crossed into the lead there in the average of real clear politics average in the trend line.
Is that moving because right now the winds -- you look at them are starting to go closer together again like they did after the convention that's really significant.
But when you -- the debate that's really the question that everybody is front and center Carl and talk to me a little bit about post debate.
Dale bullet we we we -- will see more this in the weeks ahead my suspicion is this week we're gonna have a number of polls showing movement to Romney because look in the Gallup.
In the three days before the debate it was 5045.
In the three days after the debate it was 4747.
And we also see this -- In -- a little bit -- different fashion in the George portion university political battleground poll this may be part of something that was starting to happen before the debate.
In terms of the intensity of each -- voters.
It's three weeks ago the Romney voters were more likely to vote said they were more definite to vote by seven point margin over Obama supporters.
This is now last week grown in this latest poll -- -- 13%.
Gap and only some 85% of the interviews were conducted before the debate only 15% after.
But in the 15% interviews after this number becomes even stronger for -- supporters.
So I suspect we're likely see this continue if you look at the recent -- for example all three polls in Florida in all and end in October.
Romney leads two out of three of the polls conducted in October in both Virginia and Colorado.
Romney leads and -- in Ohio is beginning to show private data beginning showed the race tightening.
And the Obama campaign is responding to this week they -- dramatically increasing the -- their to their television but.
In the state of Ohio you don't do that and -- state -- a couple weeks ago they were saying was comfortably put away.
But -- -- state like Virginia.
We've talked about that state a lot Mitt Romney is there delivering a foreign policy speech today is in the tossup category still on this map.
Is it sliding one way or -- There's been -- clearly been movement to Romney and all these states I mean you're seeing that the debate really did make a difference for him and I think in Virginia that's the case -- we still don't know yet I mean.
We don't know how big the bounce is whether it's just us two or three points I think I think that is the case and -- starting to level off.
But Virginia is going to go -- wire I don't think you need I don't think Carl and I expect anything different.
When you talk about polls and -- independence.
As Republicans you're starting to see that in some of the polls post the -- absolutely the same thing I said was happening for Democrats before the debate is now happening for Romney he -- he throws two or three points and also the number of people.
Who identify as Republican starts the ghost is starting to go up in these polls as well I don't think it's.
That the pollsters -- region agreeing -- numbers I think it's -- it's something that's happening is there's a shift now.
More people are starting to identify as Republicans -- that debate performance.
Okay look at this map here and in the last point nine days Carl what are the significant things that the Republicans are going to be looking hat.
Well first of all let's remember one thing about the debates.
The first debate tends to be determined if that is to say the these results after the third debate tends to mirror what happened in the first base if you win the first debate.
You generally tend to win the series so the -- of the narrative matters.
With regard to how much you win -- but for example in 2004.
The first debate John Kerry did well he -- in the polls bush gained back in the second and third but at the end of the third debate.
Kerry had made up -- on President Bush.
Effective and seven out of the last nine presidential debates the only -- -- which we got good data we don't have good -- on 1960.
The challenger has benefited from the debates.
And the incumbent has only benefited in two so I suspect we're likely to see some pretty significant changes this week.
By next Monday if we start run and a bunch of state polls.
In these battleground states I was gonna see some shifts into the lead category leading Romney shifts away from Obama and shift towards Romney.
-- quickly every week we show you something from our iPad app where people can put up their own maps to put up side by side with -- -- and -- map and see how they do in their electoral -- this week we bring up.
-- Mike Capps he's -- Joseph talked to us about this map.
Mike -- Obama leading with 247.
Electoral votes to Romney's 244.
Electoral votes -- but.
What's it Christine -- almost the entire kitchen sink of these some of these swing states to Romney Nevada Iowa New Hampshire.
Virginia North Carolina but.
Weeds out as toss -- Ohio and Florida.
As we look at this and it just shows up one more time how important those two states are in this whole thing if if Florida were to go for Obama.
He wins if Romney were to win both those states were -- actually just Florida.
He wins Ohio -- still sits there as the big decider I think this could be election night -- Absolutely look this isn't gonna have a familiar range that this was election night 2000 election night 2004.
In 2000 Florida had this limelight but Ohio is vital 2004 Ohio had the -- -- limelight but Florida was important so.
We're likely to see these -- let me just tell -- -- plot -- to the second how many.
How much flight time it is between -- various stops and allowed various stops in Florida.
In order to maximize the number of appearances that they have.
But you're right it's gonna come down to these two interesting -- that map does give a lot to Romney but it also gives them some due to it to give away.
Because New Hampshire Iowa Nevada for example -- could lose all three instill in the Electoral College -- Joseph as always we'll see you next week.