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Good morning welcome back to campaign insiders on troubled -- -- day here with Packard bell Doug -- 29 days and counting to the biggest selection and a long time for weeks from tomorrow.
And we're gonna give you half an hour straight analysis of the race we're gonna open up with where the races today at 10:30 AM.
Just two -- one we can look at the new Gallup daily tracking poll I believe we're gonna put on the screen there it is 4747.
We can discuss this from and then we'll give you the new Rasmussen numbers which just came out thirty minutes ago so.
What is happening here not all of that is taken since the debate.
It is is this finally is all greeted with the -- -- took.
Those three days of polling we've had since the debate up instead of the seven days a cut that's why this is 4747.
And that represents a five point margin ship and pat is that likely voters know on register -- -- -- likely pat I think were.
Five or six -- -- -- Romney in the among them the very -- that I realized existed if I have.
My aide David correct.
Yes when someone all of enjoy those behind disinterested Stephen Moore there's a battleground poll what you heard cited this -- and -- Shows Romney had about six points among those -- but I do what I -- what and.
-- -- but here's the -- more importantly we draw is that what Romney did evil we all talked about last Sunday and Monday people remember what we said we were pretty much I think on.
Part of what you need to do you prove that he wasn't awful no group.
And the second thing is is Doug kept saying he's got -- give the issues and vision about specific city did even now is being called wire.
What he did is more than anything and I'm still waiting for -- we'll give me a measurement in this.
Given all the money these newspapers have done to promote Obama's lead none of them -- produced his something showing me what has happened to Romney's favorability.
Which I suspect to skyrocketed because the CBS poll.
Right after the debate among uncommitted panel back -- viewed voters who were uncommitted.
-- not just undecided but also willing to change and he went from 30% say he cared about people like me.
To -- these three.
Which is that -- -- and among it as short as it would be strong decisive leader with 78 to twelve that putting back in the race.
-- now we have another new poll just out half an hour revenue -- we don't have -- for the screen but we've seen it on the news a minute ago.
Obama had been behind the last two days by two points nationally and two were won in the swing states and Rasmussen.
But today he's gone back ahead by one point 4746.
Nationally in -- -- And one point in the swing states 4847.
And the biggest thing was his approval rating has gone back up I think it was 51%.
And in the swing states fifty approve.
Fifty discipline when we John try to offer.
A -- to where we stand it look pat is exactly right this debate victory.
-- governor Romney cannot be underestimated.
It also shouldn't be overestimate.
This has opened the door for governor Romney but it's only opened the door.
The governor is dealing with a number of issues the brand as we've talked about many times -- -- -- a complete.
Been impacted by years of neglect and years and what I would say are -- rhetoric and arguably as bad policies.
But beyond that the president's approval spiked in part by the jobs numbers.
Remains a guess at 5051.
As pat was suggesting and if that be the case and I think it is it says bluntly.
That it will on the swing states that we're gonna get two and a second are still very much in play put another way the debate.
Is a game changer in that it's change the narrative in the election but it hasn't changed the ultimate results in my judgment just made it a much closer.
Like what well so what it is dark ages save Romney gave you a chance to his campaign just about.
Fading out of -- imagine if you had a terrible -- -- -- -- baby would be discussing the I remember the coronary -- -- we reviewed karma when you're sixteen.
The the fact used but this is the problem for wrong these imprudent -- -- -- Obama's job approval at 5051.
You -- is the problem I've -- a new show every week that's the number to watch that's in numbers got to come down.
But now but Romney is also been there and there are many task and I'll tell you this news we should talk about the unemployment compliments numbers whose central -- -- There's been a spike in coffins over the weekend among uncommitted voters consumer.
Which was already on the rise because the Democrats.
Since Democratic Convention.
And now it's getting this in this ball.
And that views -- something keeps Obama in the game not that they I think.
-- -- -- pat pat and -- only ask us from the challenger's campaign point of view what can they do to knock down.
The president's approval rating -- -- you can do politically or.
Well I think T ball on the Duncan answered but I do you think you can point out as he tried to do the debate here's the reality of the situation -- Rian.
There's going to eat this is why the contrast he was trying to say I have -- different road.
The same road we're gonna go down is gonna produce what we have.
Law ball law ended and therefore we need to make a chain a chain pardon the expression we change the word perfect choice.
You don't end and this is what -- and also the second thing they have -- remember what the Republicans happy twenty point advantage.
And this is about -- -- the role of government.
In Obama is clearly.
To voters' interest student expanding government increasing spending saw that.
Shouldn't the way I would put I'd make the same point slightly different way.
Bet I don't -- no I don't I don't want my girlfriends are named -- so it threw me -- he's going to be here here's what I'd say.
What Romney is not done is to link his critique of the failed Obama's power policies.
And terms of health care -- spoken eloquently about Obama care.
He's not linked the deteriorating economic conditions of the last four years.
Was an alternative set of policies and an alternative world view that won't make ordinary people's lives better I thought he was more accessible on the debate.
I think he made it clear he's not an extremist.
But -- hasn't really said to a suburban.
Dollars a year -- why I'll be better for you than the present.
You're going to be very pickup probably should have been doing that for months but we'll probably went what I heard much remembered what we'll -- -- Kerry campaign a moment deep we don't have to speak Stephen we don't have to do anything politically because everybody hates Obama.
-- -- -- -- -- But let me tell you what I would be talking about which Republicans don't seem to care about which is I would be talking the biggest -- to -- -- shock.
-- a drop in real -- home from middle class people.
In the last four years it's unbelievable it's unprecedented run he would bring this you brought it up but I would have to hammer should ask yourself you have this much less money.
This is what -- I'm gonna give you a policy it will help -- urine comes we will also help on the job they've Republicans speaking abstract.
Romney did discuss obamacare you can see the -- moving the debate along with you know the bipartisan idea which was good.
And in the and -- and -- -- -- of the -- that he's got to eat eat eat won't take on the tax issue.
He won't take on the mandate the Republicans have given away the issue I keep saying over and over and over they will not run on the issues -- -- -- -- they grow what they think.
Donors want to hear -- I was really embellished what -- said I have two views one on taxes and probably equally if not more important on health care.
On taxes they haven't explained why reducing.
Rates expanding eligibility.
And limiting deductions would be good fair and in beneficial to have explained it but I I want to offer another point on health care and it's a point that hasn't really been -- Too frequently since the debate but I think it's critical that ties in to pats think it.
-- -- -- To debate I thought for the first forty minutes or so was pretty even I don't -- was doing very well.
But but the president didn't fall apart.
And tell that to health care Pat's argument has been and I think he's been Cingular -- us that his health care is the Achilles heel.
Of the Democrats and Obama going beyond.
Just obamacare and what happened the dynamic has our watched the debate.
Was that win Romney made what I thought was a very good critique.
Of Obama -- a good defense of his own policies.
Obama fell apart.
He had no answer yet know how can.
Big -- you know his signature of the hall accomplish a lot of stir up what what what happened is I've watched some of the dial testing numbers CNN had.
You just watch when he first start at about helping people keep your duty cute kids on -- -- and preconditions.
Obama was doing all we did well on that until Romney came back with use when needed which is that -- gonna keep that let me tell you we did you pass -- would you do -- -- It all of a sudden that sort of moving the -- Which are saying is it also -- -- of the -- Douglas and which is important.
You shot this down the country's wrote one party vote on this you -- listen anyone I didn't want I didn't ask you this we had to.
Members of the legislature and eighty some percent immigrant legend who didn't vote against the bill we worked together.
Remember this is we've -- where you don't have to look for the weakness for Obama in this -- -- strategy and I think we do one call.
Is that this is the guy who was supposed to unite the country.
While this is a god who has run.
He was being when he talked about not being truthful when he said I've reached out to Republicans I've worked -- Republicans I nearly fell by chairman the president's.
Let's let's wrap up straight politics and then we'll go into the future what the strategies that I think we can -- -- number four this Rasmussen swing state poll.
Polls of Florida North Carolina Ohio and Virginia -- there on the screen.
This most of these.
-- before the debate.
-- -- -- -- draft over to the debate was October threat north Carolina's October to October for.
The other three which if it's been -- is this a one day -- -- three as anyone right so that's taken the day after the thanks so it's to look at the site Mickey the guy think they should it -- isn't dead heat but -- little -- yeah.
Let's remember what it was before this after we had the slew of those wonderful polls showing Obama twenty points ahead of fifty points ahead in the swing states.
Being produced by every news organization that supported him.
-- we've we've -- -- all this -- result pulls -- those states are close Virginian and more treatment read -- one we have they've really let me just finish my point please.
Could we ever real we have -- real change here it's now back to -- don't -- really competitive right it's up in the air.
Domain and Europe chart we have -- Grande -- it drizzle today.
Comment Romney is paying under estimated he is an introverted person for penny is a great money man.
People perform an office as we need but it is hard to show that in public because of this introverted.
-- I thought for -- Who's introverted he did very well of the debate think the really -- this campaign is Obama.
Lama who likes to spend all evening alone by himself contemplating things whenever -- a thing about we have said the three of us.
For months where is the passion for this.
-- from Romney on the stump in public where's the energy he had at that night he did you know Obama spoke four minutes longer.
Romney said 500 words more no to everything.
-- really had.
Mean about a MIT and he really projected he was more presidential when the president tonight tonight can you hold it till after the break -- take a break that we'll come back to you.
For Doug -- I'm John ability -- we'll be right back.
And -- campaign insiders are back fer -- it's Doug -- -- in downtown affiliate here let's go up to number five the unemployment rate which came -- -- 8:30 on Friday morning.
Hours exactly after the president.
Walked off that stage -- Denver this number came out and frankly shocked the political world because that is the rate.
That the unemployment was in January of 091 Obama took office and it has not been that low -- this Friday.
If it's truly this law because it became.
A sensational by Friday when former GE chairman Jack Welch -- at.
Five minutes later that this thing didn't smell right and a lot of people said -- something not right in the computation of the -- But politically.
This is helping Obama.
It's certainly innocents from recipes and that I have to tell you I don't its opponent is number I've ever seen few Beers and I'm not saying it's -- -- people who believe and on the -- points.
I will tell you this when you have two surveys we have -- -- employment survey which showed his old columns predicted 1141000.
We have this household survey which is really screw up showing 853000.
Somewhere the 700000 jobs -- The percentage of people I'll tell you why these that this number is opponent.
When you look at the question of unemployed and underemployed it's -- we use six measurement.
It's at fourteen point seven -- didn't move to adopt in the household servant so none of this adds up.
The fact of the matter -- you can understand why some I believe the statistical mob those grew up.
Fights but but you have to ask this is some people are saying he Labor Department.
We just sent out notices to defense contractor saying -- not Obey the law in telling your -- employed so they may be fired under sequestering.
Makes group of Republicans believe and others that -- that this administration is its cookies.
I was a little thing happened Friday morning.
It's now Monday morning has the Republicans capitalized on this question about this thing and they even talked about.
Is what's happened the race -- -- I think frozen.
Pat since the debate since well since the slight bump for Romney in -- event I think it freezes it but Pat's exactly right.
The changes a narrative back.
For the swing voters to Obama is making is some progress the issue of which survey is right kind of hard to really now.
But it gives Obama renewed.
Argument and all he needs to.
He didn't need to win a debate he needs to fight a draw.
On whatever he's arguing about through November 629 days because if there's a -- -- on the argument Pat's point.
Tie goes to the runner target civilians and -- and keeps the good I want direct to present and that's not all about how all global broadening campaign still which.
We're you -- -- it would say yes let's distinguish me Romney performance of the candidate.
From his campaign.
-- -- Monday you know they still have not put up a single led.
That it shows the footage from the debate.
In -- their candidate will need to reinforce the image of that wouldn't.
Which is politic by the -- should be the good stuff from the good yes the good stuff whichever you wanna pick.
Second thing is Obama is buying I watch college football on Saturday a watch the -- in the baseball yesterday.
And I'm motion for a New York this is not a swing market.
I wanna tell you the Obama people are buying national advertising for their -- campaign which I think is a problem itself.
But nonetheless the Romney campaign -- that we find out the Romney campaign is a point.
Half as many people paying the same amount of money -- For for the highest paid campaign staffers perhaps even presidential -- have her number employees is -- -- and -- the highest paid consultants and you know what they're not doing they're being outspent in the media and messaging with the.
Yeah little Leo let's have you guys talked as we talked about -- off the year yesterday -- talk about it here -- -- Want to be raise all this money for campaign you make commercials.
Now comes the issue where do you put the commercials on or who you -- the commercial last.
College football you're aiming at white male voters generally that's who's watching.
You put an ad on the view -- -- women's vote whatever has.
We found out an article right that Romney's campaign has one person buying all the ad time that all these states all these media markets and we take Ohio.
They're like all these media markets you need to be an expert in Columbus vs Cincinnati Cleveland -- up one person doing -- And Obama has a huge team of people doing it they're running a more sophisticated operation.
That is true they've got a better ground game John.
They've got better messaging even if I agree with that it's intellectually dishonest message I think it's better -- but but it's better to.
OK don't worry folks and it's a light -- out above me in the smoke is coming out -- There wasn't the White House coming after I had somebody took a shot of us and I heard this is safe -- -- not that.
And right on the point of that their.
-- the content DV quality of the ads is better pat noticed last night during the Yankee game on TV asks that.
During the day yesterday they update changed tweaked their ad against Romney.
Committed to making them better quality like at but the but the but what I think we have a look at the spot but it looks at this Romney people around.
We have -- we're gonna we're gonna run a net.
Of -- -- here come.
The latest not telling the truth about Mitt Romney's tax plan.
The eight pieces doesn't have ABC news mostly fiction even the Obama campaign.
Stephanie Cutter they're running against chief deputy Press Secretary and she's a deputy campaign -- -- -- came in who cares right and what important is this this is -- -- -- baseball except -- here's the problem the greatest skill of this campaign.
For the donor of the Republican Party -- -- millions is the insider game going on.
With the -- consultants and others who enrich themselves at that it's a detriment of the the -- in -- It kills me to look thinking of our show for a year and -- -- believable.
And how we've been talking over and over again about which -- candidate goes positive first is going to be the next president of and for ninety minutes Romney was quite positive about -- he would do and the way he criticized Obama was respectful proper income.
The wasn't an all out assault it was.
You did your health care this why I didn't mind this -- Now we have five days and some debate and he's running negative commercials again instead of taking the golden nuggets of goodness -- and running and.
You speak about -- can't -- his campaign is she behind the eight ball and I I would just say that they have not figured out.
What they need to do either resource wise or creatively.
Or execution Italy.
To get their message to -- which is why -- believed ultimately.
They probably will not.
-- not barring a huge debate -- something.
Calamitous happening in the world be able to pass.
President I can't help but left to the campaign -- -- selection comes on the campaign Obama will win.
Because of Romney campaign he's assumed the worst campaign in my life I relentlessly on the religious right what about Doug has pointed out some important.
If that in fact we get a huge seismic shift of event.
Yeah did what I -- I was gonna say we have produced sports fans might still be geniuses but also the worst motivated -- as a sports fan politics is very similar you know they always say this looks like.
The Packers are gonna beat the colts are better -- what candidate yesterday coleslaw they got to play the games you got to have these days of campaigning you've got to have the debates.
Whoever thought Obama was gonna get cream so badly we don't know what's gonna happen biggest hidden in a couple minutes we have left.
And there's a lot of confusion around us -- of the light blowing up but.
Let's talk about Thursday night Vice President Biden debates congressman Ryan what's gonna happen not what's gonna happen what's the strategy each.
-- are all star -- in turn over to pat.
Ryan strategy is to say he's got a forward looking plan to balance the budget rein in entitlements and pro growth be pro growth.
He's got to look -- as I said positive forward looking and the voice of the future and what I believe Joseph Biden is get try to do was make.
Right into the grinch that stole the election that is the guy who wants to just cut cut cut out your hard -- cause Social Security part of us.
The real issue though and pat can speak to this.
Is this will be the first time in an -- filtered setting the issue of liberty Libya will come up.
And whether Biden can defend what appears to be an indefensible set of reactions and policies.
I leave that to him and to do and do what I -- that's.
-- today with the speech and young and Maya are coming in and I don't think people could walk and chew gum to.
The fact is yes the economy's biggest issue but for you for -- -- -- in the in the devices sites division could be.
Foreign policy particularly when it comes -- the Middle East the Muslims because women are so worried about Islamic extremists.
And what you have here is -- story which is funded in the Doug said he defensible and obviously was concocted.
Now if you could rock the Bryant's instinct which is this is what I worry about his instincts he has been to promote.
His -- his plant no matter what you did destroy the Republican Party it's one of the reasons that the Republicans -- Presidential level -- in such trouble.
And if he decides it unless he gets Smart and Perry is that he should wall says -- forward growth -- -- -- -- -- -- -- offensive Joseph Biden visited isn't it is national security expert.
You make it after why did the president sort of wondering why was that narrative gone done.
-- the intelligence.
This could really where -- was Christmas -- and -- was -- security -- -- and as I like to say about Valerie Jarrett has Secret Service on my case.
-- has -- all the lead story on the network news today is again this lieutenant colonel warden.
Who says that he was leading the team over there and wanted to stay longer in the state to.
I'm gonna an invite mr.
Wright thing why is the president not did not the day after -- -- is owned.
Presidential foreign policy briefing intelligence briefing instead he's at a fund raiser.
You know I mean yeah this -- I would put Biden on the defensive on this and will this debate affect the presidential race on all.
It affects the atmosphere and affect the dynamics -- -- all not boats and I saw that that David Axelrod has taken Joseph Biden into a hotel in Delaware for three days at debate camp.
So they're really they know they've got they -- want him to be an attack dog yeah that's right could be.
Right now when I can do predictions -- I instead we're gonna and with a great tweet from bill 67 for ten.
This is an explosive show.
Sorry I couldn't resist.
-- in light of palladium was very guess I don't know if there's more -- that explosion.
For the day that -- chair and microphone exploded while we're on the air anyway.
It's an explosive campaign will be back Sunday at 530 on Fox Business -- think Fox News Channel.
And then 1030 back here next week so for Doug -- pack an -- -- of the way we thank you for watching.
Tweeting commenting to the campaign insiders see you next week.
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