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Electoral map changes following first debate

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    Gov. Romney continues to rise in polls

  • Duration 3:44
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Passing on the -- wires that -- new polling from Reuters -- says -- out and work well it looks like for the first time -- Mitt Romney pulls ahead.

President Obama by three percentage points according again to these brand new polls just out 4744%.

New one -- things that we've been watching it in some of these new polls governor Romney has gained some ground it's come in several key battleground states as well.

And this comes after his performance in the first presidential debate.

I -- analysts say that the -- -- debates don't really matter but summer now from Haiti changing their minds a little bit our next guest says.

That hit -- -- -- iMac has shifted.

In the last week -- joining us now it is crystal ball Larry SATA director center for politics at the university of Virginia's a first things first Larry what do you think about that new.

Our Reuters it says Paul.

Yes they actually had Romney -- yesterday but I think it was by two points so apparently.

This has grown over time you know how these polls work they.

Tossed out the oldest interviews and -- in the newest interviews every day that's why we called me daily tracking survey.

So that's good news for Romney it suggests that.

Asked people absorb what happened in Denver at the first debate he is lead is world.

A little context -- its -- foreign press Larry thank you for that what changes in your map and what changes are you really looking at.

That you think our viewers to know about.

Well we made two changes in the Romney direction.

Because of the first debate.

Most presidential debates -- really don't matter they don't move the needle but boy every now and then.

You have a debate that does and Denver was one.

You know many people suggested that Romney would do well in that first debate.

Very few people at least that I know fought the present United States would essentially -- cards in the first debate this was a shock to people.

We moved Virginia from leads Obama -- -- it been for quite some time.

Into the pure tossup category they're only two other states in -- costs up.

Colorado New Hampshire we also moved to Florida which had been a pure tossup.

In to the leads Romney category and this is really important because it brings Obama down.

To what 277.

Electoral votes once you allocate.

The states that are leaning it means that Romney can win if he Carrey's New Hampshire Colorado Virginia.

In turns just one other state Wisconsin or turns a combination of Iowa and Havana.

So so Larry -- -- -- you went on to senior crystal ball.

Though is that the president still has more plausible routes.

-- to winning the election and but that Romney does it need a huge transformation.

To get there and I think you just he just talked a little bit about that.

What are you watching -- axes were getting so close now as Election Day what are the keys that it's -- really watch for now.

Well I think you always look at Ohio you know our favorite swing state other than of course my native state of Virginia have to give them.

A track record but right Ohio -- we've said all year -- general -- been right 27 the last 29 times.

No Republicans been elected without Ohio if Ohio gets really really close and Romney is moving up.

That to me is is an immediate sign although again it is possible for Romney to win without Ohio with he gets Wisconsin.

In those other states I mentioned or if he turns Iowa plus Nevada.

All right we'll continue to watch his combinations and the -- -- as always Larry thank you very much.

Thank you --

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