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Good morning everybody three weeks from tomorrow there's the election we've been talking about on the show with you for about fifteen months.
I'm with Pat Caddell Doug shown -- -- -- we are happily the campaign insiders trying to impart some honest analysis.
To both campaigns and the overall race.
Let -- quickly discuss quickly in setting up where we're going tomorrow night for the big debate.
Where the -- here Monday morning 1030 East Coast time.
What do you factory.
I think this race is as close to a -- As we could have I think the momentum is clearly with governor Romney.
It would seem that every poll the poll out this morning from.
Washington -- his post we were talking before we went on the air.
Plus nine democratic game.
Plus three for Obama when you weighted back down to what it should be four or five democratic -- get.
-- slight Romney lead which is what the other polls are sorry I think pat will talk.
As we will later about the swing states but pat you what a great deal not that this is a race with clear momentum but not a close sales for governor -- What he's done is that debate opened the door -- have run he is carried momentum it's been a national movement for him.
It's certainly not because his campaign has done anything to distinguish itself since having taken exactly one week.
After the debate before they could get up a spot on the debate.
We are but -- isn't -- people are excited.
Republicans has been revived.
And we you know this basically is now a toss up going into a debate in which the pressure is on both of them.
But it probably comes -- we'll talk about that but mom comes up this debate and I will even a really a -- -- in my opinion I think.
Then recruited and the money start -- But -- let's quickly before you hone in on the debate let's look at slides number two and 31 after the other just took solidified its first as the Gallup poll.
49 for governor Romney and President Obama 47 and the presidential preference and investors business daily.
47 Romney 46 Obama so we know from that and the Washington references to same -- -- -- and -- that.
Let's go to the electoral map.
Number one place and hold -- on the screen for site.
-- what we discussed yesterday and we've been putting this on every week.
The president was at one point in real clear politics -- 253.
He's now down -- 201.
With 2.2 leaders makes it to 23.
Romney forever was at 191.
But they've added in 32 leans to the thing according to real clear politics is really a toss up.
Just like the numbers show right so.
If I'm either one of these guys I'm hunkered down in -- debate camp today saying.
I gotta be at my best.
9 o'clock tomorrow.
I think that's a terrible thing but I think we've seen movement in the states.
I think Florida we'll have put that up was -- number for a fall have talked about I think Florida and Doug said this yesterday.
Well this is a real clear -- I think Florida is now looking -- use yeah hey here's all you people black I think the Obama people's attitude towards -- look.
If we win great if we win -- elect house -- -- yet house money.
Whole card to use it again -- fired up all Doug talks is.
Number five players bottom line up it is possible that what we've been talking about -- 1980.
Analogy could come to the whole house so -- could -- -- and then none of this matters but let's assume it's closer to 2004 model where.
In both the ABC in the George Washington poll -- get out today.
The president's approval is fifty and putting that side did.
Details of each of those polls but the president's approval -- and he will have a very close election.
I assume for the sake of argument I think pat -- -- and John I suspect he would as well but obviously -- speak for ourselves.
That's under those scenarios most likely Florida goes against the president.
Which is probably gone already Virginia probably goes against the president.
Probably goes against the president.
You then have Ohio -- You have that all out in Iowa Iowa New Hampshire and New Hampshire.
And I think the president's best guess would be the following I'm taking you inside what I think of the -- The minds and hearts go straight if they haven't.
Of the campaign and -- they would say will win Ohio.
We will win in Nevada Nevada and will win.
-- -- -- -- New Hampshire and I was of course up and they say William Wisconsin back we'll get.
Michigan back and -- -- -- and keep Pennsylvania.
And we -- we win with a back to seven before it's bush Kerry got stuck.
They look look there -- two roads here.
Clearly Ohio historically in every all the way give when you're saying.
And I agree revue particularly if they get Virginia I think Florida in North -- on -- falling in the line finally.
I mean no state should have been locked up all -- say about three months ago.
In a real -- a decent campaign.
But Florida is -- mean -- still wacky because those suburbs but if the goal is is it might go.
They needed to Ohio the question about and I've races on the -- yesterday in a moment -- online -- didn't -- it.
There is a possibility here besides the night what -- -- They have 1980 -- 2000 room for you don't have to go to 1980 to have a blowout to happen to have quit in 2000 portal with the report.
But the big thing -- -- week after week we approval rating is at 50% Obama's not defeated that is where this we go in this debate.
If he wins Ohio.
It's a -- Obama wins Ohio it makes it very hard they've been counting on that being their firewall their their their key starters strategic move they've spent.
49 million dollars that's as of a couple weeks 'cause there's probably over fifty million well over fifty million dollars they've got huge organizational reserve here's the deal.
-- -- watching the cold -- national.
We announced -- polls in Minnesota.
Wisconsin the Wisconsin -- gonna hang in there from Minnesota Wisconsin.
Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Better or within a couple points or or or or even walk in -- and multiple polls.
Because -- from what you said Doug about the debate it is -- national movement the only thing I'm suggesting is an out of the box -- thought his.
Those are states no one is spending money.
No one has a natural -- advantage because they're -- these other states.
It made me that you could actually move goes faster and let me say this I've always believed the Pennsylvania.
Potentially was a bad state for Obama because of Ohio because the -- -- -- and everything else.
And Michigan as a certain affinity and I think that's a -- state.
Point is it didn't matter too much a normal for the women's way behind because of people while Romney was an over.
They don't think Romney -- go home.
You know who you would like I -- I don't know.
For a hypothesis are dark on.
What pat is describing something that would be strategic and arguably tactical initiative for the Romney campaign that I doubt they can do.
We can anybody you'll hear it -- personal -- campaign insiders go for.
Bottom line play north -- -- Everybody is gonna throw huge money at Ohio.
An Ohio because everybody's got so much of an investment there and it's so important.
He's gonna move less than the national average because they're literally being buffeted.
With tens of power authority have been right -- -- -- -- poisoned on the Romney is an ogre that for probably done today is ready to quit Laura -- process they're -- it's like if we -- here.
And spent twelve hours talking about the campaign.
One thing's for sure we know more than what we start at -- like to think so.
If the Romney campaign had the deafness.
To be polling constantly and -- -- say Wisconsin.
Michigan and Pennsylvania and Minnesota and Minnesota there's no passport.
And let's assume.
Around the 25 to 26 -- -- -- -- they see that Wisconsin and Minnesota hypothetically our midst single digits.
And then they decided to blow it out and out.
They have the chance.
To potentially steal state now I don't think from the -- that.
They had the deafness to do that but that's what pat is.
Ultimate -- to distance call being -- like sports folks -- blow horrible war how do you come up with a new initiative how do you see a new moment.
In and make a play and make a strike or you can just sit there and keep charging into no man's land really really we are gonna -- -- of the belief that the you know.
Like coach Bill Belichick -- coaching staff.
What you don't thinks about that I think absolutely right you're able FC one I think they have no message fly notre Massachusetts power pack attack.
They have never learn the lesson from 1980 an incumbent economic got a job rating up the conventional tell -- Bill Clinton has helped them of that.
That is the only thing holding him in this election right now -- I thought all of -- -- the -- that that the Obama people would see this.
If they were the one that would be great campaign is running as multi culturally moderate people of any history of America can't come on John.
-- I think they played a bad hand pretty well yeah here's what I -- had a bad candidate.
But here's what here's what I would say.
I've watched is -- -- -- did this morning the new Obama for America.
Which state that's all the plus -- was on national restaurant football and right.
-- its -- America -- that painting an American exceeded its he had studied that morning in America.
But here's what's missing here here's the essential.
-- They don't talk about the future at all.
There's no reference.
To where the president's.
Or his team.
Wants to take the country now governor Romney as pat has pointed out John you said same thing over these many weeks.
Has offered very little vision himself but ultimately the president hasn't even said we're on -- path towards job creation and here's where we're -- And even having good landowners Clinton had little bridge to the -- -- having -- brought this format of real people back in the future.
And stuff but there are many better executions.
It is the first half hearted effort -- -- positive.
But you know what I can't tell those people real.
They don't identify them they look like they're reading they're still reading a script and -- are not natural left the -- and what Doug is saying it's usually he's.
Born in America and people are going -- they're trying to talk to this little bit.
But the here is the point you said John.
Let's not miss this it's all over national advertising.
Because Obama campaign is -- that is now cheaper and more effective to -- national advertising.
That in the states in the Romney campaign because what are racial relationships and their console.
In terms having -- -- one person and they're not little and we Hollywood it is a crime.
And anybody who gives money that -- -- campaign should we have to go for a break but we have.
Amongst ourselves read an article where -- want to add 32 ad that Obama was -- cost.
Sometimes they're not all Obama bought it it was like 700 -- -- Romney bought the same thirty seconds same station same show 2800.
Dollars because it.
Deal -- -- -- -- -- they're not buying national press they are still in this game -- you -- and I your problem you know what the problem is it because you look at the contract deals going on.
-- between Stevens and his firm in his one buyer and how much money they're making it in you.
I generally happens -- one virus retiring.
Correct Gary had ever been a pat yes your problem is when you need to care more about these things -- -- -- -- target -- -- combat.
Now when we come back from this break we're gonna get into the debate tomorrow night and -- we're gonna wanna read William flak for EU and us to think about.
How important will that delay by the White House and acknowledging the events in Libya.
Being with respect to Obama's approval rating so -- get to that person after the break we'll be right back.
Okay we're back with pat.
-- Doug shown and -- -- -- a campaign insiders tomorrow night 9 o'clock at Hofstra University on Long Island.
Town hall forum moderated by -- Candy Crowley of CNN who has announced over the weekend.
That she will be asking follow up questions after the people in the circle and around ask their question.
Where she deems it appropriate it is not in the agreed format for her to be asking follow up questions but she's announced she's doing it.
And both campaigns are burned up on the liver and they're so I don't like whatever happened the day of a panel of three reporters as -- -- -- I know one person.
Has since I'm not sure that was a better format but I will tell you this about the debate commission as we saw with Martha Raddatz the Biden insider last week and who -- his house for dinner several weeks or at the end of the debate she hugs Biden.
She barely acknowledges -- she -- Biden erupt 82 the -- president what his -- her wedding but to present that even not even part of but here's appointed you know this is -- I could never be a Republican belong to the stupid party.
You know every time they get in these bipartisan deals like the bipartisan debate commission with frank -- These Republicans have a role the Democrats take it over in the Republican become groups.
And that's what happens in the Republican campaign won't stand up and say we're not taking these moderator if you don't have at least one moderator but we like yeah.
-- and in all fairness they steamrolled Jim Lehrer to the benefit of Mitt Romney so that my mobile -- were very happy with how our store and here.
If you did exactly what he was supposed to do it of gratitude -- -- -- released but -- -- -- what Biden -- erupting.
It was you know I'm just sorry you know this is they've election I would get on the golf I don't know let's stick -- tomorrow night go to real woman who had set up in the first section of the credit.
How crucial this thing -- -- if Obama.
Bombs tomorrow night this campaign's over president Mitt Romney is getting sworn in on -- is true if Obama does well tomorrow night.
We're gonna go right down to defend national president of raw -- blows screws -- up.
He could be Dicey little boy that that -- -- But I think Romney will do well no matter how Obama does -- they're two separate performances want to help Romney the second is Obama does a federal.
-- -- -- -- We've we will see.
But it will be a memorable there will be I think there will be no way you know can you can be president would be there's a question about how much good he can do for himself that is.
He can get back to where he was narrowly ahead.
I don't think you know much beyond that unless governor Romney falls apart and I don't think John as you suggest I don't think that's.
I have watched every Mitt Romney debate since -- and both -- arrested so we weave this what we like to bill and he has never been bad.
Ever in a debate he's always be prepared he knows his stuff well yeah I had a couple of bad incidents you wanna bet 101000 you want to he had done that.
He's not gonna do that tomorrow night he will do a good job plus this is.
Tell me he's done a lot of town meetings this year.
President has done none as far as I know actually living a real person -- wasn't pre pre program.
But he's pretty good in that -- has been it's not a dramatic -- here's the thing.
-- -- -- -- -- The question of the one you asses the mail coming in via the press Libya isn't Libya there is is I have -- we -- once again -- Cassandra like -- -- -- Economy is the biggest issue in the end the -- further decisive issue this small movement.
Could be foreign policy it is about the -- thing is about Libyan foreign policy it's about telling the truth and leadership.
And I think the president's got a problem he's trying to throw Hillary Clinton under the bus now look they throw everyone under the bus this is the most excuse oriented.
You know minister Ben Franklin said somebody who's in the -- is giving excuses the good giving -- blaming other people that's all we ever do that's -- -- about.
That's what he is and I think that.
He has in that debate the question is he's got a problem that -- that Bryant but totally failed in his debate Ryan playing it safe had a terrible.
Speak would be -- had he got by -- -- but he didn't do is look immediately but the clips and movies in the campaign to this extent.
The media though the New York Times and here's the press doesn't want -- -- New York Times paper record yes they dominate all of the talk shows it's not even on the front page.
The press wants to go in that debate and promote it -- Obama victory and understand where they're coming from.
But the thing is -- the president goes without -- answer.
All wolf we -- no -- -- they're cute.
The question -- big all of the begging question of this is Mr.
Why did what you in the Oval Office getting to the bottom of it.
You didn't meet -- daily briefing people you didn't meet with the national dirty young and you got a plane and flew for a fund raiser to lost to Vegas.
-- That is not something he wants to deal.
There's also two other questions that they are now trying to deal with job.
Which is what did you know.
When did you know it and what did you do about it.
And what they're doing is what I've called.
Basically -- Schultz defense we knew nothing to sergeant Schultz -- -- -- -- if we you don't notice him.
This is an issue for the security professionals -- the State Department.
This is in the issue for the -- -- -- intelligence community.
Not for us now pat would agree I'm sure that that's not a satisfactory answer the question is is it at all.
For the next 25 days -- question is in -- -- me and I -- and I sympathize from political -- -- -- -- -- On -- on the talk show and defend even even even Bob -- -- having trouble not going after.
If this were any other administration Democrat or Republican.
They would be -- doubt it since these two devices how's the secretary of state would be under.
-- absolute pressure from the press the president would be this would be the biggest issue.
Good things that they would be finding out we have repressive once again not -- gone in the tank but is purposefully except even they can't.
Let it not -- much pat what about when -- -- -- other point when does this Libya thing could come to get into the president's job approve tomorrow tomorrow.
Tomorrow and the next Monday I literally gets here tomorrow to a foreign policy debate.
And it depends on how well little on the heels of the problem -- goddess would dub said right the problem is they have eight they have eight.
From barricade there but a -- stating there.
We didn't know they knew.
Now they have they have to have a narrative they're trying to push out because they -- -- political they're trying to get invited twenty some lowered its narrative of the debate tonight.
Is that going to be repeated by the president and the axle -- thing.
We'll have or will the president always -- a date if Romney does win.
If rob well -- if -- he does what.
What Bryant did for all those repeat Bryant fans out there which was dropped balls the you know we go -- they'll try it Pat's making another point.
One of the reasons why Libya hasn't been on the front page.
Is because the Republicans have yet to develop their own coherent narrative about what they believe happened why it happened and what it means.
It's and also I think that Romney is gun shy because he got out ahead on that contrary he's in Jacksonville only just -- is -- -- -- had been killed in a given that this is exactly what's wrong with Republicans.
Because they'd let the press.
Because they're terrible -- -- Remember my analogy there are three teams on the field there's the Obama team the Romney team in the -- the press which used.
Tackling and sacking Romney and blocking him.
Now you've got to not let didn't give -- your head.
You another state you've got to get this.
Back on the offensive they have let the press psych them out axle -- yesterday -- all know every available about.
He made his political though he.
-- just -- to -- -- now what's the truth right okay so let's go we got two and a half minutes -- -- -- show and then debates tomorrow night.
Let's go through each guy very quickly what does Romney going to do not what does -- have to what do you think.
Killed and I think he will be personable.
I think he will take the message.
And the debate to the president but I think given the nature of a town hall forum.
It's going to be very difficult for him to press the argument as to -- to believe as aggressively as we've suggested today and in the past.
That he needs him.
-- I think -- a good player and totally agree with dog I think he's told me deal to Obama's got to be more sorrow than anger.
I'm disappointed disappointment that's another good word.
This every time Obama attacking other parents say this we know how we scored so well more my bipartisanship.
And in in no such as messages and I would be saying you know Mr.
President you said reunify the country who are bringing us together.
-- -- -- you -- -- it in it and all you're doing is device but here's what I would really kill Obama.
They're gonna go to taxing able to keep saying that that's all the new all Romney's obsolete for Romney for them -- -- say what you gonna give me a lesson about math.
This is a man who said he would cut the deficit happened so we've done this in Minnesota we pass a stimulus -- when I don't needle -- the lesson from you about mathematics.
Protestant political unrest let's go to the president for player and he's got more work to do here's what is.
-- first he's got to be assertive.
He's got to be assertive with the people he taught us it was governor Romney -- Candy Crowley he needs to basically get as much back.
Second he's got to make the case without again insulting.
Governor Romney that the numbers don't add up that it's Fuzzy math that it that and that he's flip flopped in a way that makes him incredible.
I do you think he needs a -- line repetitive.
And I are like they have very but I guess and we online news what you're suggesting right some man who doesn't worry about Ramallah and see that when I can answer me this is what you have to I don't want don't want the bombing campaign to.
The other possibility is you know -- you say one thing money governor you know I love -- but I have no idea what would you do what you with the governor which out of five from bottom position is on this issue -- you taking tonight -- -- you -- is there every -- and ask you taking your position.
You taking my -- position.
Good -- -- congressman Ryan's position.
When the new position -- -- -- you know estimated why are wondering whether Romney is in the position.
To enveloped him and hit -- what I mean I birdied a hit a nice way we got to go guys yes -- I wish we -- work.
Time but we're gonna all watch tomorrow night and then next Sunday you can join us at 525 on the Fox News Channel -- Gregg Jarrett.
For campaign insiders and then we'll be back here next Monday.
At 1030 that'll be the day of the last debate will be that night on foreign policy so for Doug -- -- canal on job of -- day thanks for watching -- see you Sunday and Monday.
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