Romney momentum translating into electoral gains?
Rove, Trippi look at the political map
- Duration 7:07
- Date Oct 15, 2012
Rove, Trippi look at the political map
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We are three weeks and one day from the presidential election right now our weekly look at how the Electoral College map is shaping up.
Joining me now Karl Rove former bush senior advisor from Austin, Texas and in Washington.
Democratic strategist Joseph Trippi as we do every week let's take a look at the map you can see the info on the key.
Red is Romney blue Obama.
And the pink -- is leading Romney light blue lean Obama the yellow states those are tossup states within the margin of error and this is for the first time.
Based on polls from within the last two weeks we've been doing it over the last months but since we are with them.
This time frame.
And there are so many polls Karl.
That's this is within the last two weeks what has changed.
Well who says debates don't matter there were sixty polls in the last week of 27 states if you look at the thirty day map.
There were three status changes all the benefited -- Montana went from lead Romney to strong Romney.
And New Hampshire and Nevada moved from -- from lean Obama to toss up.
But if you get rid of the polls or conducted and the latter part of September and only look at the last two weeks.
There it accelerates the change there are four more status changes all of -- benefiting -- for a total of seven status changes.
The critical battleground state of Ohio along with -- cuts and go from lean Obama to toss -- And Connecticut goes from Obama to lead Obama and significantly.
North Carolina goes from tossup to -- Romney so at the end of this we're left with -- with a 159.
Solid electoral votes to a 194 for Obama.
Each one with between 4647.
Lead votes in Romney's case 43 and Obama.
So it's 237206.
-- 95 electoral votes up for grabs.
Who says a debate can't make a big difference seven states moving all in the direction -- Romney.
And change in status OK Joseph a lot of change according to Carl you buy that number one and what's the most significant.
Well first why do I Dubai there's been significant movement to Romney particularly if you look at polls over the last few weeks and look I think the significance is that a month ago I I would have been and was one of people saying the 321 strategy.
Was in deep jeopardy here is that you.
Indiana and North Carolina.
And Virginia going and going for Romney -- North Carolina moving so lean Romney.
Is going in the right direction now Ohio being a toss up which I agree with -- -- put it in the lean.
-- area it's now a legitimate toss up.
You put all that together in the 321 strategy that the Romney campaign was aiming at.
Two two win the of the Electoral College is now back in place and back in place.
Carl what about Ohio yeah look it's it's it is a toss -- state both private and public polling -- in this state moving from.
Lean Obama to lake shear -- toss -- state.
And now whenever we're seen -- another battleground states it did not change status Virginia went from down to for -- for over two point lead for Obama.
To -- Colorado went from a two point lead for Obama.
To a one point lead for -- Florida the critical state of Florida went from a two point advantage for Obama.
To one point advantage for Romney and then we also changes in Indiana Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Michigan Pennsylvania -- three points towards Romney in the last two weeks alone so this first debate it was a real game changer there were twenty states -- approved for Romney.
Is seven Obama had a status change.
And and and not of them had a at a margin change a bigger than three point so.
Significant movement and and and and much of it and the direction of of Mitt Romney.
-- the one thing I would.
-- -- though is look look at how fast things change that -- go right back I mean that you know this thing can't go back and forth.
Over the next three weeks I think we should you know should be sensitive that it's clearly -- very volatile situation.
You know we talk.
This before guys I'm standing in New Hampshire which is four electoral votes.
A lot of time spent in this stage and it is very very close a lot of time spent in Iowa six electoral votes.
When you look at the map are small places but they fit into this big -- Yet look at candidates are constantly looking for ways to change the dynamic of the race in any state with any number of electoral votes.
-- 2000 for example bush made a play for.
West Virginia Tennessee and Arkansas all of which were thought to be in the democratic camp and yet all three ended up.
In the in the Republican camp and in West Virginia had five electoral votes.
Six in and and in Arkansas so that everybody in an election that's this tight in this close nationally.
You're going to be -- in a lot of attention being paid to these two to -- small states.
All right let's go to our I've had -- you know you can submit you're all -- to put up against Joseph -- your -- -- -- and we've been.
Fielding thousands of them we have this week an interest in one.
Frank castle or has a map Joseph what's interesting about this.
Well -- frank this map if you take the eight states that we have is a toss ups on our map.
And -- in frank gives three of them Wisconsin Ohio and New Hampshire.
To Obama just those three -- gets to 69.
You give the other five states remaining on our map to Romney.
And guess what -- -- to 69.
I nightmare scenario occurred in a crazy race.
A crazy -- -- it but there's still two more mean in new here in Nebraska then.
Would come into play Brett it did this map polls.
-- -- -- Maine and Nebraska break out their Electoral College vote by district last time around Obama carried Nebraska to.
This time around there's a new poll showing Romney in striking distance -- in Maine too so we could end up.
In this election and Nebraska to his it was -- -- thought to be comfortably Republican.
And endemic in the Romney camp but Maine -- -- the word and actually you know this scenario come to pass.
Who would would result an election which Romney would get to the magic to seventy and Obama would be a 268 all because one congressional district in the northern part of Maine now.
Again this shows the centrality of Ohio if Ohio and it which is moved from lean Obama to toss up ends up in the Romney category.
Then Romney wins a comfortable Electoral College victory.
But it's it's -- you know look through this can change rapidly.
Debate last week had a big impact but we do know this about debates.
The debate the first debate tends to set the tone for the balance of the debates.
Whoever wins at first debate tends to be the winner at the end the question is how big is a margin at the end of the debate series.
And quickly Joseph if we had the 269 to 69.
You could imagine a lot of lawsuits and potentially.
Throwing it to the House of Representatives are we ever get there.
-- if it goes the house -- at first thought there would be a lot of lawsuits Woodson but second of all -- -- -- to the to that house then you're gonna see I think a Republican House and that would be tie goes to Romney I think.
Wow that would be quite a finish all right Joseph Karl.
Thank you very much as always and we'll see you next --