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Welcome back to beautiful downtown Portsmouth, New Hampshire -- -- pop overs bakery and cafe talking with a group.
Of local political experts about the race here in New Hampshire where pleasure be joined.
By Kevin land target senior political reporter of the Nashua telegraph James -- -- LW and you are New Hampshire.
-- -- Smith University of New Hampshire survey center thank you guys for being here to Rockingham county is a swing county and we're here because.
It's a very interesting place New Hampshire as a state.
Went for President Obama last time he won all ten counties in New Hampshire but Rockingham had the smallest margin.
Just about 15100 votes here in Portsmouth it's a democratic stronghold but Rockingham.
Kind of more of a Republican place -- how does this place stack up in the in the state well.
It's the second largest county.
State -- population and it's really interesting because.
There's -- part of it here over the sea coast that is democratic -- the big bulk of it via the part of the of the of the county that's.
Bedroom communities across parts of the Republican.
-- -- -- western Rockingham county Democrats referred to as the burning at the Bermuda Triangle we're democratic candidates go to guy.
So it's a critical county for Republicans to win.
I think that they're gonna have to get promised that have to get 55% or more the boat evocative and it really do well let's take jabs.
You see that intensity with the Romney campaign being new they have to build that big gains in this county which is basically one -- -- four New Hampshire residents.
Live it and you can see it in their campaign trail the last two weeks Paul Ryan's been right can't count Scott Walker's been Iraq him cat -- previous -- -- -- county.
You know and to that point Kevin the focus on New Hampshire you guys are always used to be in -- focus but boy.
Now it really is -- focus again Republicans have.
Want to 20042008.
So there's a little winning streak going for Democrats and even here in Rockingham county.
We have the president come of course was here last month they're contesting heavily here and -- -- counties.
Should shows you how New Hampshire has changed over the last ten years ten years ago so representational legislation Rockingham county was -- one Republican.
It's now more like 6535%.
Republic it is.
The most Republican county but it's nonetheless heavily contested by the Democrats and and the Obama campaign certainly from -- for the last five or six months has had a better ground game and around him.
The unemployment rate in this state is five point 7% here in Rockingham -- a little bit.
Bigger six point 1% still well below the national average.
Economy still drives the day how does Mitt Romney play in this state obviously has -- place here late wouldn't sakes from neighboring.
How does he play in the state and I think he does.
Well here probably better in New Hampshire than other states largely because he's seen as a moderate Republican candidate from his kind of Massachusetts and people know me.
And they they know -- but also.
We were Republican voters appear largely moderate Republicans who he fits in with kind of the political character of the state of New Hampshire.
The bigger problem that he faces is not so much whether that people know him or not it's just the state has become increasingly democratic his -- reference over the last ten years or so.
Democrats have about a five percentage point edge in the state so he has to do a lot to motivate those republic to kind of like him.
The make up for the Democrats difference in numbers.
It is becoming a classic New Hampshire -- to -- -- -- -- been a swing state.
The last twenty years we live from breed our live free -- -- -- Republican those libertarian state decide.
-- the Mississippi so the question for New Hampshire elections is about fiscal issues taxes and spending Republicans win.
If it's about anything else social issues wore something else Democrats -- but -- got.
Said how does the president's health care law play here how does -- the attacks.
Question play here for it on the president's side.
Healthcare law is not wildly popular in the and one of the reasons why is we have some of the highest health care costs in the country.
So that's that's not a wholly positive thing for the president come and as you know we're in here here in New Hampshire taxes matter we don't have an income or sales tax.
-- the attacks.
President Obama -- attacks -- you heard him but.
On taxes in New Hampshire you gotta tell the truth you -- be a 100% accurate and that's the consumed from Romney right now with a few weeks left with -- study last week that suggested.
That his tax plan may not all add up he has to make sure his math adds up in order to be credible -- -- Clear -- that debate move the needle at least if you look at those polls post debate.
But -- you're starting to see some stuff even before that debate that things -- and what do you think of the last twenty plus days.
And what what you might see depending on the next couple of days first -- I think.
We're getting to the point where it -- the final third of the electorate that there's gonna show up is starting to pay attention.
And we have to really -- remind ourselves that most people don't care that much about politics like we have to.
So those people were starting to pay attention now are the ones are going to be key.
And I think of the the you'll see the polls in New Hampshire as well as nationwide start to stabilize as they decide first -- whether they're gonna -- or not.
And then the independent the people don't know who aren't really that political decide who they're gonna -- for I think it's going to be stable I think that we're going to see.
Marginal increases but nothing like the dramatic increase or decrease for either candidate that we saw -- this last debate we were actually see movement before the debate started.
Before the debate actually heard that -- towards Romney Republicans are getting their enthusiasm back after losing.
-- New Hampshire is not an about -- elections bringing out.
-- -- both presidential campaigns are playing that way.
We wanted to break down politically the State's 39% are independent or -- -- voters 33% Republican 28%.
-- that he's -- clear independent voters.
Will decide this election and whether or not he got this is about fiscal issues in the economy it's about.
Health care -- about.
Pro choice the values number this is a state with no income tax no sales tax.
But what is six with gay marriage that's -- libertarian we are estimates Kevin James Andy thank you very much and now we can dig into these -- -- -- Beautiful downtown Portsmouth thank you as always we'll be back at.
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