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Making sense of conflicting presidential polls

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    Chris Wallace breaks down swing state trends

  • Duration 4:52
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We've heard a lot this week about the latest Gallup poll which shows governor Romney with his greatest national lead to -- over the president.

And for the first time it shows governor Romney support tops 15% that's brand name.

-- his lead over the president outside the margin of error of course we can all take that with a grain of salt.

Because.

It's not the popular vote that matters at all -- the individual states through the Electoral College whether that's a good thing or not doesn't really matter.

Because that's the that's the system.

We heard earlier from campaign Carl Cameron the governor Romney has taken the lead for the first time in the real clear politics electoral map.

But there are still a lot of toss ups out there -- -- important -- -- President Obama still has slighted so what to make of all the different numbers coming in at us.

Let's bring in Chris Wallace he's the host of FOX News Sunday.

I look at the most recent pulled out of Iowa and go that's weird and probably wrong because nobody's ever won Iowa by eight points.

That -- -- the president flee their look at the most recent poll out of at a North Carolina is skewed the other way for the president I don't get it.

-- I'd say it's confusing and look if you believe the the Gallup number which is well above seven points yesterday today -- six points.

And then you look at the Wall Street Journal which today has in Iowa and Wisconsin Obama leading by six to eight points.

Somebody's gotta be wrong there's no way that that Romney could be leading by six points nationally.

But but losing by six to eight points and Iowa and Wisconsin they're just not that different so somebody is probably wrong.

And looking at the trends and I think that's really ultimately what you gotta do.

I need to clearly Romney sends the first debate has closed the gap -- thirties I had weather is spotlighted some of the polls tell different stories it's a much closer race nationally.

I think it's also fair to site looking at the trends.

That Romney is doing much better in the southeastern part of the country the three's when the states they are Florida Virginia North Carolina.

In fact Romney may be pulling out of North Carolina not because he's -- -- -- because he's gonna win.

And he wants to shift resources.

To other states.

So talking to the Obama people they have now -- drawn the line that the firewall.

Around three states.

Ohio.

Iowa and Wisconsin that's their mid western firewall and they think if they can -- those three states they can win the election at this point they think they have -- -- in those three states.

It's getting smaller although not the Wall Street Journal -- and most other calls getting tighter and all those states but that's the new firewall for the Obama -- -- Yes and it -- -- I've heard that from them as well and I I've -- look at it.

Iowa and them Nevada kind of balance each other because they have the same number electoral votes.

If you get one that that's a ballot but I think people look at these national polls go the trend is clearly Romney's and it is there's no questioning that.

The trend isn't in Romney's direction.

But these states are all that matter.

What that's right and an analyst and if you really want to boil -- down to one state.

It's Ohio I.

You don't look could you lose Ohio if -- Romney yes but then you have to pick up of Michigan or Pennsylvania which -- it.

Be more democratic than Ohio does so what seems unlikely you'd picked them up and lose Ohio.

Conference late for Obama.

If Romney can pick up Ohio and let's lay out might just you know scenario is right and -- winds.

Florida south North Carolina and Virginia.

He only have to win one more state to go over the top it could -- New Hampshire could be those states out west to talked about like Nevada.

Or Colorado it could be Iowa Wisconsin.

If he wins Ohio he's got a real good chance to be the next -- -- did one last thing this idea of pulling out of North Carolina.

I remember the days before maybe two days before the election when Al Gore decided not to go home to Nashville -- there's no gore -- ever lost Tennessee.

He lost Tennessee and had he won -- he would be our president.

Not -- and I don't think it's very likely.

That he's gonna lose North Carolina and win Virginia and Florida and everything is just North Carolina his -- is a lot more states in the southeast so.

You know at a certain point you've only got limited resources and a limited number of places to put -- You if he's if he can't carry North Carolina -- and a lot more trouble than just that one step through that all right we got this -- -- on the big show.

Well -- the foreign policy debate is Monday but we're not gonna wait for Monday we're gonna do -- Sunday and as you can see on the screen we're gonna have Dick Durbin and Lindsey Graham.

Debating Libya and Syria and Iran and all of those depressing thing that you were just talking about without expert -- -- and that was very -- -- And then secondly we're gonna talk about the numbers that were sort of startled by days to.

And we're gonna have Frank Newport if -- was that that had diet Gallup the granddaddy of all the polls.

To try to explain to us how we could be seven points -- nationally but losing and Romney but losing.

In in -- -- -- -- key swing states so we'll try to make some sense about on Sunday as well see on the next FOX News Sunday this Sunday check your local listings it's right down the dial on the Fox Broadcast network.

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