Fox News
Expand
Browse All Video
Watch Live

You're watching...

Predicting the 2012 presidential election

Details

  • Description

    Las Vegas odds-maker and Colorado professor put odds on a Romney win

  • Duration 5:08
  • Date

Clips

Also in this playlist...

The O'Reilly Factor

Auto-advance: ON

Auto-advance
View All

Transcript

This transcript is automatically generated

It is not legal.

To bet on a presidential race here in the USA lobbied to do it of course.

But in Great -- the -- -- -- -- one that president Obama's gonna win.

Most -- believe the most going to be very close but not everybody joining us from Denver -- -- political science professor at the University of Colorado.

And Australia's Wayne Allyn root odds maker currently who correctly I should say predicted 2004 election mr.

wrote.

Who's gonna win on November 6 and how do you not.

Well I'll tell you what I'm a gut instinct guy bill and I've been saying since I put -- my commentary in me.

That Romney would win by a landslide and by the way let me point out.

In December I made my New Year's predictions and I said Mitt Romney would win.

The Republican nomination in a cake -- it at the time.

He was doing badly pretty much every single person running.

And I single want to win the election it was in me.

But I made the determination that I felt a landslide was coming and I double down here on Fox News and other places around the country about two weeks ago.

And said it will in fact be -- -- landslide five to seven points popular vote at a hundred to a 120.

Electoral vote victory for Mitt -- All right but you know the polls don't say that so what is it.

Who would you have a little magic ball -- miss -- in the basement I mean what is the idiotic give me one thing.

That it making you so confident.

Well I think it's Reagan Carter all over again that's what -- said I -- -- were basically going -- feelings but you're -- feeling -- -- the people.

Like no you know my friends are all small business men and women I had to -- -- I know lots of Bob moderate to liberal democratic Jewish voters.

I know a lot of my old neighborhood in New York Catholic voters.

And back four years ago they were all willing to give Obama a chance at four years later back in this spring when I came -- this prediction.

Every single person I knew what and a small business said I can't take another -- years Obama.

I'll vote Romney -- I just felt it was it added up to a very big victory there's been a giant sea change in this country.

All right now doctor -- you have a little bit more of a analytical you being a professor at the University of Colorado a little more analytical approach.

Who do you think's going to win and why.

-- we agree that governor Romney's gonna win we think it's going to be around 330 Electoral College votes to win.

It's not based on -- -- it gut instinct and it's certainly not based on talk and other people in boulder.

The only gamble I've made is that they'll still talk to me if I'm associated with this kind of a prediction model.

This is based on looking back at elections all the way back to 1980.

And what my colleague and I have done is to model the Electoral College contest as 51 separate contest the fifty states.

Plus the District of Columbia so based on on the past voting behavior in those states.

And where unemployment stands and -- in -- per capita stands in each of those states.

What is the voting pattern and what we see going back over time.

Is that when conditions are as they are crosses many states is they are that the in party the incumbent in this case President Obama doesn't win these kinds of election -- You lose a lot of emotion tied into mr.

Obama because of his skin -- -- because of his presentation.

And by the way Colorado is a very very important state do you predict that Mitt Romney's going to carry your state.

We do we we show that governor Romney will carry Colorado.

We show that he's gonna cut carry most of the battleground states not all of them but most of the battleground states.

And and what you see in the polls right now is trend lines that are opening up more of the states for mr.

Romney.

Closing down some the states that previously were in the Obama category.

Florida North Carolina for much.

I do agree -- -- I tend to agree with you doctor and and and by design by from mr.

With mr.

-- as well because of two things number one.

I think that Mitt Romney's going to have a very strong performance on Monday night because of the -- if they know we just you know that we're covering here on you which -- no explanation for the Obama administration's behavior.

While with four dead Americans it just isn't any explanation people don't like that and then that synergy guises with the much more important issue for them.

All of their wallet.

No -- -- and it's basically you're creating what Jimmy Carter had.

You got a bad economy you got the Iranians hold them Americans and you got the reception double weak administration.

And that just do my job that's the last break I think to help Mitt -- okay thirty seconds mr.

-- -- I've been safe in the beginning there's a couple factors economy by far above everything else number two.

Is I think he's going to be the chick -- election remember what happened over the gay marriage issue the millions of Christians that lined up.

To help chick -- those same people will be lined up.

On Election -- twenty million evangelicals.

Who didn't vote in the last election are gonna be there they're going to be they're strong for Mitt Romney.

And follow the money last time Obama out raised McCain and outspent ten to one in the last two weeks.

I'll bet you any dollar right now Mitt Romney -- -- the last two weeks.

Obama by a big margin all right gentlemen very very -- -- -- --

Load More