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Tomorrow the candidates will make their final pitch to undecided voters in that final debate of this election season.
The polls show a -- -- -- ever race check it out this is the real clear politics average and it is virtually a tie 47%.
To forty point 47 point 1%.
Former senior advisor and deputy chief of staff to president George W.
Bush Karl Rove joins us now Karl good to see it thanks for -- us.
Thanks for him -- everyday and you poll multiple new polls what -- out to you in what we've seen so far the last couple of days.
Well first of all -- let's keep trying gives us some context you just touched on it.
Tied it in the real clear politics average where were we at this point in 2008.
Is to give a sense of context.
Barack Obama was up by six point 4% over Senator John McCain on on the twentieth of October.
It if you take a look at.
President Obama today tied.
He was he -- the eighth 2008 he had among.
An average of all the polls seven point 2% at this point in 2004.
In what turned out to be -- very close election.
President Bush had a two point 8% so prison Obama's running not only behind his performance from four years ago when he was a challenger but dangerously he's running behind.
Where an incumbent ran eight years ago and I say that because the that you know we look at all these numbers one number to look at in particular is the president's number.
And is it at or above consistently at or above 50%.
If anyone has led in the Gallup likely voter poll in the middle of October with 50% or more as governor Romney has for the last five days.
That candidate who leads with 50% more has always gone on to win so -- the incumbent president to be below fifty.
And for his challenger in the -- to be above fifty and for the two of them in the real clear politics average to be tied.
That's not good news for the income.
Make of the heat the Gallup is taking over that six point spread the advantage of course to governor Romney you know -- -- called an out liar info -- -- you know.
Accuse them of that their methodology is -- there something wrong.
Or they wouldn't be so far off of where -- -- Tennis.
You know -- -- has been showing -- one or two point lead I think the reality is somewhere between.
But look -- we endow these polls with a precision that they simply don't have the agenda the important thing to do is to look at.
The general movement and the general movement over the last couple weeks is clearly been -- governor Romney's advantage every Monday.
Joseph Trippi a -- -- and I go over the previous week's polls and aggregate them into the Electoral College map.
Last week twenty some odd states moved -- president Romney's for governor Romney's direction.
I suspect tomorrow wolves were likely to see him on a number of other states continue to take take a look at for -- at Florida.
On Friday Thursday Friday and Saturday I think there -- five polls governor Romney led in Florida in four out of the five.
And that was it to the significant improvement from before.
Governor Romney is they are a couple of points behind one or two points -- in the recent polling.
Remember this was a state that president Obama's campaign was saying not too long ago was comfortably in the double digits and a and a big big -- for for President Obama.
And even they admitted that it's it's.
A horse -- they put they'd they'd being dramatically increase -- television Ohio in the last week.
In order to muscle up in -- state that not too long ago they were saying was settled and over and done.
Yeah and specifically our Fox News polling that was on Friday did give the advantage to governor Romney in Florida.
-- three point -- as the remaining for the president in Ohio.
As we see that number close up it's much tighter than it's been.
What has to happen now you mentioned ads are up the spending is up for the Romney campaign in Ohio.
What did they do to peak at just the right moment there is it possible for them with what we know the data we have right now to win Ohio.
-- assured -- it says that Ohio is up for -- for both for both camps.
The quality of the closing message for each side is gonna matter.
And both sides are grappling with what that ought to be the Obama campaign has been running a relentlessly negative barrage of ads against.
Governor Romney until last week they -- surprisingly.
Pull down all those ads I suspect the reason why.
They went with me a group of ads designed to sort of puff up the president was that they saw that they were no longer affecting.
Governor Romney's negatives and where instead driving up their own people would get sick and tired of the president's campaign beating up on.
Governor Romney and so they were they -- you know that the wrote the -- the Obama campaign changes for creation pretty dramatically -- can be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday after the debate.
On Tuesday and Wednesday both sides are -- -- introduce.
What are going to be the first of their closing messages they'll have about fourteen days to deliver -- They'll probably be able to stuff maybe three ads during that period of time that means they've -- come up with about 225.
Words -- will -- encapsulate.
Summarize -- they're closing argument and break it ended in the three television ads of thirty seconds each and crime drama moment three weeks.
Pray Carl real quick because we're almost out of time I want to ask you about this idea that we have these national polls whether it's Gallup or Rasmussen or others that are out there Wall Street Journal believe has -- out today.
But when it comes down to it we're talking about the electoral college and you were brilliant at breaking down the numbers.
The popular vote Electoral College -- you know it's not always one in in the same and if we're talking about several key swing states.
The fact that this election comes down to ten or fifteen states.
On behalf of the candidates capitalize that -- in his final stretch.
Well they spend a lot of time in the states if they consider to be most important.
Right now if you take a look at the real clear politics average of the ten battleground states all of which were won by by President Obama in 2010.
2008 governor Romney leads to New Hampshire Colorado and North Carolina and Florida.
In Ohio is -- who is a one point 2% advantage.
In the real clear politics average for a President Obama so I suspect we'll see governor Romney trying to reinforce Florida may be trying to reinforce.
But I would suspect to see -- spend a lot of time and Ohio and then a couple of these other states Wisconsin and Iowa.
And and Nevada which are very close.
You know the states could be very very very key to the election.
President Obama needs to win.
Needs it needs to break governor Romney's momentum by keeping him from winning Ohio and one other -- it looks to me like North Carolina Florida.
And Virginia are all floating back into the Republican column so he's got to make his fight in Ohio.
And then stop governor Romney if he does -- for a -- Ohio from getting the one more state the governor Romney would need in order in the Electoral College.
Math is not my subject that you make it much easier to understand Carl always good to -- you thank you so much.
Thank CNN -- ahead of tomorrow.
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