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Morning I'm Doug shown and I'm here.
With my colleagues on campaign insiders.
John the book lire and pat -- -- We are what does it past fifteen days before video games today and so -- are now.
Gonna do something that we had campaign insiders have been doing now for as we were discussing before we went aren't.
There are done for the last sixteen months we're gonna drill down.
We're gonna try today to do two things explain where the race stands.
Why it stands where it is.
What could well happen tonight in the debate.
And what's likely to happen in those next fourteen or fifteen days subsequent.
Bottom line we -- campaign insiders.
Have as our sole mission to tell the truth about where the race stands.
Let me offer as the host.
Any overview of that I'll turn it over to pat and to John -- summarize their view.
-- bottom line.
We've NBC calling the race 4747.
Down from a five point Obama believe in September and a three point Obama lead in early to mid October.
They are showing clear movement to govern Iraq.
Scott Rasmussen has the race plus two.
Overall I think plus three in the swing states.
I think he has indicated in his own -- Certainly is pulling the clearly the momentum is with.
The Gallup poll which we'll get to in the second and as a separate topic in and of itself.
Has governor Romney 67 points.
I had it may well be as I believe it now -- but certainly.
It suggests momentum.
Even Huffington Post the left leaning -- Huffington Post their poll analysis which had said that there'd been a bump.
To Obama after the second debate.
Is now reporting that the race is a statistical.
Talk so my own take is that we are in a race that is -- -- governor Romney.
Where the momentum as governor Romney and where the likely.
Movement of opinion barring something.
Extraordinary whether it be something tonight an October surprise for some others -- this event.
Is that more likely than not momentum continues to move governor -- but that being said.
It is in no way possible to pull this race.
As anything more than leaning ever so slightly to -- around -- that's my opinion pat.
How would you -- Exactly the same reason it was who was very fast it is moving slightly toward Romney tonight -- -- be important.
There's been a traditional.
But I call incumbent -- during the Cold War.
From incumbent president the beginning of the last week of the campaign if Obama doesn't get that I think he's in trouble most important number to me is.
The object president's job approval on the same Wall Street Journal poll that shows -- tied shows him at 49% approval you we are right on the -- It is I think that's the reason that the Obama campaign in part because in -- panic.
The negatives and working and -- to positives to try to have five word to -- trying to drive that number -- that number because it's his approval of his most important.
The second is what one of the reasons Romney campaigns while they're narrative which is four more years of the same.
I I also think that the problem these polls -- we really don't know what's happening with early vote.
And and I think fifty Romney that the Obama people if they have any safety never goal.
It may be the -- early voting even before the first debate in some places was taking.
-- how do you sit well let me answer you guys with the questions -- Which campaign wouldn't the three of us rather be in today.
And mile I'll answer my question first.
I'd rather be in the Romney camp and I think there's a better feeling enact campaign about what you guys just said there's a little bit of movement he can feel what.
I don't know if it'll stay for two more weeks but it's been coming since the first debate which is -- three weeks ago and I think.
Something huge would have to happen to stop that drift toward drama that is done right -- No I don't think it have to be huge mobile do.
I mean -- -- that they have -- -- a mistake -- could be movement backed Obama or or let me in the move out of -- but maybe when the Gallup -- particularly -- -- talk about.
But such an emphasis of Romney's got in the bag always in this in the in the elections what's in front of voters break in front of their eyes the human.
If the issue is.
Oh my gosh do we really want this new guy -- knew we didn't like a month ago.
If that becomes maybe that's -- -- and maybe they're getting this movement a little too early.
And -- you don't know.
But I'm not willingness I think it takes -- but also.
Wall I would agree with you in terms of me in the campaign memory the Romney campaign.
I would be a farmer in the Romney campaign blow my brains out because once again proving that the campaign is opposed to the candidate in the debate.
Or debate preparation.
It is still in the worst campaign in history is that with all of these -- -- states -- -- may -- will hold bestowed we get this to the electoral map.
But but they're missing opportunities are on the table Republicans are only -- region in the way they think about election presidential elections.
-- -- here -- referring to also was what we've said to ourselves off the air for weeks.
Is that if Romney had done.
What he did in that first debate if -- done that as a candidate April may June July August and his commercials and on the stump.
Been a positive.
Futuristic -- among them to do to turn the economy around so just being negative against Obama.
He'd have this race handily in hand and -- Had a lot of data put -- remember.
Five the updated electoral map is a little when asked -- jobs.
What the implications -- like number five -- The the electoral map.
We just had it can we get.
The updated electoral map.
OK I think what we're seeing is it loses 2062201.
For governor Romney yes if memory serves right.
Pat no question that I have asked about the yellow states and particularly Pennsylvania.
In light of the following.
Comment from -- about best.
Always seems to get Pennsylvania wrong meaning they lose when they could win.
could -- how real is that -- Romney campaigns chance of moving Pennsylvania into their column and mr.
-- thousands you know things they don't.
What should they do well thank you I'm getting there has voted to gave for the -- companies.
And you're actually right -- my table we know about Pennsylvania and look -- but the map back up the second just so people can see.
We have look what we have in place suddenly states that have had that Pennsylvania twenty Michigan sixteen Wisconsin ten.
Those states which were bombed where Obama was considered to be had before the first debate well what -- now when play.
And even Minnesota has moved to lean and I've seen polls and make that close.
-- use these are moving off national events and national attention.
Neither campaign had really spent money your or time or real effort there and now there is some initially came in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The Republicans however in their -- know.
The world there still is 1492 in the world is flat.
Look at Pennsylvania -- can't be one I've always believed.
Good Romney's problem was in Pennsylvania was that he came offers a rich -- crashed in a blue collar state essentially bought.
Let's look at now what's happened up first but Pennsylvania is the second Golden State in the union and a reform.
It is a state where Obama care is very unpopular.
In in the western part of the state -- in 2002004.
We had very close election.
Bush in my opinion -- it did George W.
Bush never maximizes.
Possibilities and that appellation -- region of western and some -- and and suburbs of Philly which won overwhelmingly.
Of what Republican 2010 that's not what I know a quarter Lionel I hope their poll in these states to end the.
Are the liberal media propping up Obama when he really isn't.
Can campaign insiders shed light for me.
-- -- our -- yes the media's propping up Obama then that's the base of his campaign is the mainstream.
I liberal media we've all known that but that's a separate from.
The campaign does polling they have guys like you not as good as you -- But hopefully they're doing honest as you've always say Doug you want the most conservative.
Reading of a poll so you get the worst case given to you to make your decisions work.
To wash bias out and I hope the Romney people -- looking at these states you mentioned pat Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota and are poised.
Maybe later this week.
-- after tonight to go in there.
A -- real -- why go in fast and hit fast and maybe catch somebody -- as.
Reason I -- Pennsylvania's in play because I was send an email.
From someone who's on the Obama list asking them the volunteered to make phone calls in the Pennsylvania it would not be doing that if it were not pretty in serious play.
Secondly the problem and Ohio the state we keep -- -- -- -- -- the state that matters the most.
Which in -- traditional sense it goes is that all of these swing states horrible -- millions and millions of dollars have been spent.
Our seemed in my quote I've used the term poison I think they are moving very slowly.
Compared to other states that's because so much money has been invested so much ground game.
Presidential politics it's about -- opportunities.
And how -- strike when you see them.
And the Romney campaign isn't just like watching the French general staff and -- -- -- -- -- we just charged -- -- planned seventeen with no deviation.
What what I would like to do is to put up.
For that -- a couple of minutes left in the segment number two we have to begin with in the Gallup daily tracking poll which shows an -- plus six or seven.
For governor Romney and pat.
We don't have and I apologize but it we've got to show sixers.
For Romney 52 point five John.
What do you make of this and then pat what do you make -- say I can't imagine that.
Either guy could be ahead at this point by seven points so I look at this poll I just put -- in my head before they'll pull to try to see trends such a -- I read everything I can and -- -- the trend UC.
Romney but not quite seven points -- Yeah I don't think -- seven points look to get into the weeds a little bit.
One of the problems I have the Bloomington with the -- polish cities are likely Gallup poll voters supposed to register book which they have -- Which the poll -- we've been holding up until two weeks ago.
The board and this is a seven game rolling average.
I'm telling you now the great little dirty scandal in Poland.
Is tracking poll.
Along with the exit -- -- tracking polls because when you take one day and put 350 people.
And take 350 people out even before you -- any demographic point.
You were putting in an error factor that is and an actual sample around six or 7%.
-- particularly among likely voters -- taking one out you're putting it did that and that.
In the problem is is wait too long I have what I -- presidential I would do it in two days.
The full national sample -- where you war I think the Gallup is.
Laying out their but Romney is clearly ahead I think somewhere between him and rest before we take a.
Break I'd like quick answers to trade -- who says what's going on in Ohio.
What is Obama doing with tax dollars in campaign dollars to swing a state that's.
Critical John Ohio would you say well I think the gap is closing quickly but -- I shouldn't say quickly it's going in Romney's.
Direction to close the gap but I've never seen one -- all year that has Romney -- -- -- -- had Ohio Ohio before we take our -- well it's still it's still Obama.
And they've got a lot they -- and there's doing everything they came to women.
Federal dollars to look at their two dollars but he also did an announcement -- couple weeks ago about claims in the world trade thing against China and half but that's what -- -- -- erosion.
Every president doesn't -- We will be back in about thirty seconds with campaign insiders on Doug shown absolutely -- and -- -- Good morning Doug shone again I'm here with John will be -- -- pen and -- -- doubt we are campaign insiders we are here to tell the truth.
About what's gonna happen in the election some fifteen days from now.
And we're gonna talk about what is probably be singular event of the campaign that is left which is tonight's.
John it's foreign policy.
What will happen what is the big issue or issues what should we expect.
First -- it's huge because it's what we spent the first half of the show talking about because it's an effective tie race.
This like the seventh game tonight between the giants and the cardinals every pitch from the first pitch is crucial.
Every answer every new wants tonight is huge.
For people to -- -- -- big a deal undecided voters don't care about foreign policy -- how to win no matter we know that some guide us and say -- tonight that is wrong.
That becomes a major gaffe that is out there are starting tomorrow on the news so tonight -- huge.
Two goals Obama wants to show that he his his his baby he's a great commander in chief and that Romney's not up -- And Romney just wants to show he's presidential can't make anymore mistakes he's made several mistakes including in the last debate.
He needs to try to be mistake free tonight and preserve that little bit of momentum he's got coming up -- Two things one is that the president's numbers was on the journal poll.
On foreign policy is down to almost barely even 4946.
That's -- Libya Libya is a problem.
Foreign policy avenue polling -- secure America now -- government often for two years.
People really do care deeply about these Internet these these issues they may not be as important -- economy but I've said all along they could be the tipping point.
Because it goes to leadership and crossword.
Romney needs to do better than he did.
But there is something important -- -- to do besides pressing case and he has a lot to press on China which people feel strongly about our ran.
-- -- -- -- -- Islamic extremism which this administration teams refused to recognize.
There's always making excuses for.
People feel particularly women very strongly on that.
And and and also I think could tip when you get to what what he really needs who was not come off as warmonger.
You know I mean the it is is so he's really too aggressive.
In 1980 and I think this is more say in the debate but people remember -- there you go again.
And are you better off to meet the devastating moment the reason I never won a debate Reagan having made the case -- he was too risky.
He was asked the question are you a threat he didn't go to war basically.
And from Reagan gave a very great dancer I am a grandfather a father I have and for peace and he wanted to see more courses.
And not the way to keep the pieces pieces right.
It was a great answer from that moment on we were we were in trouble and because our narrative of the malls and I think to some extent Romney needs to do that.
He's a -- the president on these other things but he could do -- in a way that's not like they weren't.
Right I think he's conflicted patent Doug ruled that put on the I think he's got to divided.
-- got it divided camp advising him -- I've read this we've all read it that he's got the neo cons led by dance scene or.
Pulling -- more towards the George W.
Bush type of foreign policy.
And he's got to traditional.
Brent Scowcroft Richard Haas.
Traditional Republican establishment foreign policy which would never have done the invasion of Iraq.
And I think he's torn and.
You -- you see this is where what political leadership of the campaign is important to say political decision right this is not for the foreign policy people would use to provide the information.
Diplomatic approach with the governor needs to do.
And I think he does need to press the president like on the on what he said to the to the premier book this of this Russia.
When he said give media after the election -- VMware -- about look I think he's got more to say about Libya that wins and a spot but let me read you the question we just got.
-- -- -- And -- -- says the following.
If you think it's a good idea for Romney.
To question the administration about the latest.
Reversal from the intelligence community in reference to Libya.
I yes of course because they keep change in -- it doesn't work.
I think he's just needs to calmly recite the facts which is that we had in real time we've had these different sort someone sent Susan Rice out.
And I think -- real vulnerable in the present and I think Romney which.
In Denver faith -- president.
Face to face -- -- say Mr.
President with all the confusion going on you should have been here in the Oval Office doing your job.
Meeting with -- national security advisor if you -- know.
And getting involved in this rather running all doing fundraisers and I would say the American people I can tell you one thing about a president -- If we have a crisis like this I will be in my all I was doing my job in to -- -- -- try to you.
While it's a boot time -- I think that.
The Wall Street Journal today has an -- we all just read -- -- producer gave us about the news story that the administration has which is the CIA.
Morning presidential brief.
For eleven days I think it was served seven days after bank Ghazi said it was around spontaneous riot that then morphed into this terrorist attack.
And they've leaked this out to the Wall Street -- -- that I don't.
Right of the debate that horrible video so that -- leaked out Monday morning for the debate tonight so I expect that would come -- facts about.
We will help reverse -- CYA -- let the bus under the bus now we have Hillary Clinton.
And the State Department bureaucracy and now we have the CIA under the bus is getting very crowded under the bus and we have twelve hours more.
-- the debate to throw some more people want to and the White House knew nothing they know him that he's -- we -- you as you said the charge -- -- estimates we've had in -- not -- but I want to -- we've got a couple of minutes left and I think we.
Should use that productive -- like -- to begin.
Will there be an October surprise what is an October surprise.
What should we expect.
Well October surprise a phrase comes from 1980 when the Reagan campaign was trying to inoculate the country.
The Jimmy Carter would do something and bring the hostages home that's -- October surprise that never happened there have been October surprises start 1968.
When Richard Nixon we now know in -- all.
What when Humphrey which is really skyrocketing in the polls catching up.
Went to keep the north Vietnamese from sitting down to south Vietnamese from sitting down peace negotiations.
Because they knew that would cost in the campaign.
I think we all you and -- at least share decided that the indictment of Weinberger re indictment of Weinberger.
On the Friday before the election after his -- -- buy it Larry Walsh and his democratic lawyers.
On turned out election 92.
We have seen it on the do you live with bush there's always been something -- -- Democrats dominated list what is going to be -- -- 2000 attack -- They are going to -- look of the two KT McFarland has told us in the -- -- here.
The two camps of al-Qaeda -- have been a month ago in eastern Libya I guarantee you because of 2010.
When -- -- all the results of what the of what the car went with the cartridge bomber did which is gave the Democrats about a one or two point advantage if they are desperate I'm telling you right now.
Those people in the bottom levee and the problem the Republicans is they're not out there not to.
Not Romney not Ryan but the Republican -- the Republican Party.
Doing what Reagan did -- Canadian not feeling the public you watch if they're desperate they're gonna bombs on what.
Do you expect.
-- -- -- Minute and a half I do expect some things I don't know if they'll go capture or kill the guys -- -- didn't -- -- -- they're not a risk of my driving not where we've have been stories that a couple -- -- arrested in Turkey that were involved in this thing -- could be.
The guy in the hotel -- was a guy and a New York Times Saturday.
Who was one of the masterminds of the bank Gaza -- sitting in a hotel bar the New York Times when an interview this -- -- police said.
The government hasn't talked to made the US government hasn't talked to me I'm not worried about it.
He's ahead of some big Malaysia Obama very did that boy might be he might be dead by 9 o'clock tonight.
For the president to -- -- Bob.
And governor before we get going -- just all announce that this guy's head is hanging in the US embassy.
A minute left I want to do predictions.
And here's the question.
A week from today.
Where will the race stands on the -- where I had to -- about where it is today I ended up.
I would agree I think we're looking at a very narrow Romney lead.
I think if it is within a point -- two will still have Ohio hanging in the balance with Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania also on the back in the balance.
Teetering either when Doug there's still the chance a week from today because it'll be eight days ago -- at the October surprise still could have the pro incumbent little move at the end.
Then Oregon and we have a break and the other side we -- and you could also have.
You could balance the little ticked towards Romney -- Vs the better -- it out the vote -- a thing of all while yeah let let let me conclude by saying I believe there's the possibility.
For a big event -- big change tonight but I doubt it will happen but we will be back.
Next Sunday at 530 in the Fox News Channel -- next.
Monday at 1030.
Here on Fox News -- dot com and we will take your questions analyze the results and trying to tell you where the race stands without.
Fear or favor for pat could challenge on the -- where I'm -- show thank you.
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