What impact will last debate have on voters?
Our Campaign Insiders weigh in
- Duration 7:00
- Date Oct 22, 2012
Our Campaign Insiders weigh in
Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
Right here now about 24 hours away from the final presidential debate according latest poll of likely voters.
President Obama governor Mitt Romney are now in it did he tied for the White House so.
How likely is it that tomorrow night's debate we'll have any impact at all let's bring in our campaign insiders tell -- the former Republican congressman -- New -- -- ago.
Fox News contributor former pollster for president Jimmy Carter -- -- He to a Fox News contributor and a former pollster war.
Bill Clinton right Bob.
Use the race -- basically -- Yes I believe it is tied.
But there's a -- -- -- that but is that the movement has been recently to governor Romney some of the more left wing commentators have tried to suggest that there was a -- up for President Obama after the debate.
Which according to some of the polls -- want but bottom line looking at all the polls the NBC poll.
Rasmussen Gallup and a number of staples I think we're seeing that the movement to the governor.
Is clicking on -- brought up in the Rasmussen and -- let's put this up on the screen here's Rasmussen has Romney up -- two.
And look Gallup daily tracking poll -- detail Romney is up and this is as of 1 o'clock this afternoon.
-- up plus seven now is that Gallup poll accurate -- now wire.
Well I I think it's an enormous amount -- because I have a problem with the 7 day morning you know in the weeks much these rolling samples and -- wrong you know.
Well partly because.
You're putting in like 350.
Which is a -- the -- about seven points or more never day you're taking one out you're throwing them at.
But inexorably Obama's leading you know my rule of -- -- they gallop and take rescues and applied by two.
Might -- but more than that.
But -- -- and shows now on the swing states Romney up for I think if you look at -- this race it's what Doug said exactly here it's very close.
Input but it's inexorably moving from Romney but don't forget.
There is always been -- may not be a bump out of the debate.
But historically the beginning of the week after the last into the campaigning coming gets a little violence then the challenger -- -- the -- vehicles -- You know the national polls congressman -- interesting but I like to looking at the electoral map and let's take a look at the real clear politics electoral -- this is based on.
An average of polls within the states the yellow obviously.
Our -- some of the toss ups right now but the total number here is dramatically different than four weeks ago when all of us were sitting here.
And Obama -- -- within ten points.
-- -- pearl votes of the 270 needed now look at him -- -- 201 Romney's it to oaks day.
But the big thing on that map -- all the yellow states in the upper midwest from Pennsylvania which we had thought was solid for Obama.
Back in play according to real clear politics average same with.
Michigan Minnesota Wisconsin.
Their fertile states.
They could turn four Romney here at the end with very little campaigning done you never see these candidates in Minnesota and then there.
Up I wanna throw up the Gallup poll on approval number there.
Take a look at this the president's Gallup number is plus four until juxtaposed.
Brass -- And he's on -- with -- negative to.
What do you make and it's.
Well here here's what I would do I would take the approval number in both polls forty -- And that's about the level I would hypothesize I suspect -- would probably agree.
The incumbent is likely to get now if the incumbent gets 49 and governor Romney gets.
Of the outstanding vote -- in a very very close election so while the two polls are -- ultimately I draw the same conclusion from.
And one of them is likely voter problems adults as reported here but look -- absolutely right -- -- long.
If the approval Obama's hovering at a very critical when he goes down a couple points and he's a sure loser fifties you go -- -- -- -- 950 script I hate.
But to point to John -- it's important.
State like Pennsylvania which I believe that we all thought was out of reach one point it's the second all the staff report -- like obamacare.
And -- he's had problems with Romney as a person every poll shows that there's been no money there.
That's a -- -- -- told you guys are interested in Iowa and Wisconsin let's take a look at these NBC Marist polls.
Obama's got -- substantial -- plus -- in Iowa plus six in.
Channel for personal pat is -- sorry what is okay because he pat has had a consistent problem with this particular polling arrangement with Marist in the Wall Street Journal NB say.
And there's eight PPP polling company which skews left.
Right they're pro Obama you could -- right there and both those states have a one point lead for Obama and real.
It got the -- ICN's Greg.
Private data is showing in Iowa a much closer race -- I really believe -- you know what you'd have to believe don't just understand if you'd have to believe it's in September.
We had no first debate nothing happened I want to talk about Florida because it's you know it's a critical state 29 electoral votes and you know president was ahead in Florida not long ago -- now look at it.
Eight point swing in one month Romney plus three.
And if you dig deeper look at women and ET -- point swing.
To Mitt Romney.
And and let's go to the next fall while we're -- -- here look at the economy Romney is ahead.
By seven points who do you trust to handle the economy.
Chris Allen -- just say one thing I believe these numbers are probably pretty close but if you notice in the last week.
Both the president and the governor has spent a lot of time of war governor spending the weekend they're doing his debate prep because he has to 14.
It's gravy it's icing on the cake for the president doesn't have to win it.
He's still pushing their spending a lot of money there to tie Romney down there right so they think that state is still winnable for either guy put up Ohio because this is interesting also the president had a huge lead now not so much.
-- Yeah that's the that's the -- John was alluding to -- -- Bottom line if the president holds and I know it's an -- Minnesota Wisconsin.
And bottom line he wins Ohio that's effectively the ball game.
With a three point lead in his vote at 46 that's states in play in a way it hasn't.
They have but -- but the problem is with both it and Florida.
There's been so much money spent practically -- Ohio.
That they're not movie it's not these are not moving as fast as the states were no money's been spent.
No time has been spent.
Removing on the national trends Ohio may have been poison in my opinion that's why did the Republicans got to make a broader reach with some of these other party and we.