Electoral map as 2012 race goes into final strech
Rove, Trippi break down the numbers
- Duration 7:30
- Date Oct 22, 2012
Rove, Trippi break down the numbers
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We are two weeks and one day from the presidential election right now.
Our weekly look at how the Electoral College map is shaping up joining me of course Karl Rove former bush senior advisor.
In new York and with me here in Florida over and spin room democratic strategist.
Joseph Trippi OK let's take a look at the latest map you can see the info on the key.
Read his Romney blue Obama.
And then the -- issues -- Romney light blue lean Obama and yellow those in the tossup states within the margin of error this is based on polls.
Profit from within the last two weeks OK Carl what has changed on this map since we last talked last week.
Well we had 56 state polls a new record in 22 states and there were four status changes three of them benefiting Romney.
Minnesota and Oregon went from Obama to -- Obama.
Missouri went from -- Romney to Romney and Connecticut the one -- have benefited pres Obama went from lean Obama back into the Obama category.
That leaves so present Obama with a 184.
Electoral College votes in his column for at least governor Romney with a 169.
If you add in the -- it's 237 to 206.
With 95 toss ups.
Now is there were additional changes in the standing in the candidates in states none of which affected the status governor Romney added strength in New Hampshire going from one down to one up.
And in Florida going from one up to two up.
And President Obama added strength in Nevada gaming to one point to three Wisconsin one point -- three in Ohio one point 22.
So we've got out of slowing of the movement compared to last week but still it's.
Generally in the direction of governor around.
Joseph of those changes what's most important in your mind.
Well you know last week we saw the 321 strategy that we've been talking about fall into place -- Indiana and North Carolina now moving safely in debt.
Romney's column Virginia is still a toss up but that that's -- three.
Then we have Florida now I think I think most people are looking at that leaning.
Romney so that's in place.
And he's within the hunt for Ohio.
That stack completes the two innings he -- one of these other states Wisconsin Nevada Colorado New Hampshire Iowa 81 of them.
And he could complete the 321 strategy and it's Carl's pointed out in the past.
Can't even without Ohio there are other ways now for Romney to get there so.
He has been very very toss close race.
Electorally now so Joseph if you're the Obama campaign you're looking at this map concerned.
Well you have to be compared to where they were PW look a month ago I was up here looking at how Obama to 265.
Electoral votes needed like Iowa.
One of the other states that to cap it off and I think people are rated to say the race was over that is not the case today.
They've got to be concerned I think they're gonna push their operations in Ohio.
Virginia I mean it's now going to be -- ground game for both campaigns and of course.
-- in this last debate.
Karl talk to us a little bit about the Ohio strategy and and as we said governor Romney is it looks like within striking distance there but let's just today.
For the sake of argument that he doesn't win Ohio.
Paint -- picture how he gets to 270 without Ohio looking at the map as you have it now.
Yeah well a New Hampshire.
Some combination of those -- replace -- sixteen Electoral College votes -- -- how close at 42 to seventy.
We now have some discussion about Pennsylvania because some polls are showing -- some private polling is showing a tightening.
But look let's take a look at Ohio for just a moment.
Remember a month ago six weeks ago everybody was being spun by the Obama campaign that Ohio was -- -- reach that it was a double digit lead.
That may have been true quinnipiac CVS New York Times.
Had the stated a ten point margin.
In their previous poll -- they had -- at five points last week.
And that may be an -- -- that may be too rich for what the president Obama's actual status is in the state.
Other polls last week added added a one point lead for pres Obama.
Or three point lead somewhere in between those two so look there -- there -- eleven different combinations available to you with the states and -- play.
And ordered replace Ohio it's always easier just replace a -- but I would suspect that the Romney forces are gonna trying continue to broaden this battlefield.
To their advantage if you take a look at these states like North Carolina and Florida they're moving -- governor Romney's direction and moving away from President Obama.
That's got to be deeply troubling particularly win the margin is getting so narrow for the president.
Joseph is it possible now most analysts to tell you that this looks like a very tight race.
Is it possible.
Depending on how these last two weeks ago that this opens up governor Romney's way.
And -- the bottom drops out on the Obama campaign and on the flip side what's the possibility that it goes the other way towards President Obama.
-- -- that the the problem here is that you even -- two point win in the popular vote can turn out to be a very large electoral vote win and as Carl's pointed out in the polling.
All these swing states and we're talking about a within 12 points of each other so we give you get a two point move by either one of them in the last few days here.
All of them -- fallen to one person -- Traditionally that's happened for the challenger -- the incumbent but the other thing it's going on here is the early vote.
But both campaigns have been out there hustling up votes in these early votes a lot of people voted in Ohio both campaigns are claiming.
That they've done better than the other.
But those are votes that are bank and they -- a lot of them were bank -- wind the president was in the had a bigger commanding lead in Ohio as we don't know how that's talking to play out yet.
But yes -- could have.
Have what looks like an electoral.
Real electoral -- way out for one of the two candidates.
More likely in your opinion -- seismic shift.
If it was going to happen towards governor Romney then towards president -- -- -- AJ tends to happen for a challenger it doesn't usually happen for -- incumbent.
-- I do think there are reasons that the Obama campaign -- its ground game might be able.
To eat something out in -- kind of the situation but no I think it's much more like we did a big ship like that would happen to the challenge.
All right quickly are our iPad -- we want to get to.
The viewer who submitted map to put up against Joseph and -- -- Don cal home.
Quickly Joseph tell us about it and then Carl react to -- took.
One look at this map this this morning in -- he actually sent it -- Carl and I looked at it in this thing is exactly what -- I have here in our map today except he's got Virginia leaning Romney.
It's the only difference on his map.
And frankly he he may be right about that we may be being a little too conservative about it.
Did I think.
Look I -- I agree with columns map if you take a look at last week's -- remember we use it to week average but if you look at last week's polls in Virginia.
Governor Romney won four out of five of the polls I suspect by next Monday we're gonna have.
Virginia could potentially be out of the tossup category and being in the -- Romney category I think -- sniper -- is a pretty good one.
OK Carl Joseph as always thank you and here's a little tease the Monday before the election we're going to have you predict the final map.
So get ready.