Swing state experts on what candidates need to do
Insight into Nevada, Ohio and Colorado races
- Duration 6:52
- Date Oct 25, 2012
Insight into Nevada, Ohio and Colorado races
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We are continuing special series tonight for the final three weeks of the race we're going to talk about three of the major battleground states.
And get a sense of what voters are thinking there are joining me now from Las Vegas, Nevada -- political expert Jon Ralston purveyor of Rosen reports dot com.
And in Toledo Ohio political science professor Melissa -- Miller of bowling green state university and from Colorado.
University of Denver political science professor -- mask it thank you all for being here first let's go around the horn here get a sense of where things stand.
John first to you in Nevada your sense of what's happening there on the ground.
Well on the ground the Democrats are really crushing the Republicans in early voting bright and early voting.
I have record turnout it's about 30% higher in Las Vegas Clark County that it was.
Four years ago though I'm not so sure four years ago the good comparison for anybody.
That was really a wave election and McCain essentially abandoned Nevada but the Democrats have about a 30000 vote lead after five days of early voting here Clark County where 70% of the votes are going to be cats.
Republicans are putting the best face on it trying to compare it.
To 2000 and -- thing they're doing better than 2008.
Bob what that's like saying that got my Buffalo Bills that got to the Super Bowl doing better than this year bills team.
Yet John so I I should put up good.
Real clear politics average of polls and this is the average of the four latest polls in Nevada.
And it's President Obama with 49 point 5%.
Romney with 46 point 8%.
Romney did go to Reno this wash -- -- And he's trying apparently to chip away we usually look at where people go candidates in the final days clearly they're looking at something.
Yeah I think that the Romney pulling their internal polling Brett shows him right in this race may be even slightly ahead.
They would think they would be we have the worst economy in the country Romney should be ahead here but that democratic machine is formidable here -- save Harry Reid.
In 2000 intended.
Allowed Obama to win the state by twelve points.
In 2008 -- they're going up against that but he was not just in Reno he and Paul Ryan we're in Las Vegas the previous day shall there either here -- just putting had a chauffeur shelled and Evans then.
Or they really believe they can win.
All right let's talk about Ohio Melissa live real clear politics average of polls and this includes eight recent polls a lot of polling going on in Ohio.
This has President Obama at 47 point 9%.
45 point 8% for governor Romney this is closed in recent days.
Melissa what's your take it of the situation on the ground in a line.
Yes now it's just a narrow lead for Barack Obama that lead was down from about seven to even eleven points just about a month ago so.
Obama's hanging on Romney's gotten some tremendous momentum out of the debates particularly that first debate I think we're not Obama's hanging on here.
Because the Ohio economy is doing better.
Better than the national average as a matter of fact the unemployment rate in Ohio.
It -- three years ago at ten point 6% and now it's down to just 7% as of September that's really helping the president along with the auto bailout.
You think that the auto bailout.
Message and we talk when we were out there in Toledo.
Still resonates in Ohio or do you think that the debate situation and what happened in the debates.
Has kind of changed the dynamic on the ground.
I think the dynamic has been changed on the ground because Romney has a lot more momentum than he had before the debate season.
But I do think the auto bailout and the economy are what's accounting for Obama hanging on to that slim lead it may make the difference for him we'll have to see.
OK let's go to Colorado -- it real clear politics average in Colorado.
This is five of the latest polls there in Colorado has -- -- 47 point 8% President Obama 47 point 6%.
Your sense of the situation on the ground in Colorado.
This could really go either way at this point the polls have had this just very close for the last few weeks now.
And it's really all about turnout we've seen a lot of visits from the candidates in the last month.
Romney and Obama have each been here three times during October Paul Ryan's been here five times.
Romney and Ryan actually did kind of a sold out show at red rocks amphitheater the other night and President Obama was just here to about 161000 people yesterday here in Denver.
Well -- -- CEOs.
-- -- -- -- -- -- I didn't -- the Romney event I was Kid Rock playing it was a big event for the -- extra.
Found another thing that we're seeing is -- a widespread use of field offices by both campaigns -- Particularly by the Obama campaign they have something like sixty field offices scattered throughout the state I think the Romney campaign only has about a dozen of them.
And we're not totally sure with the effective -- -- officers will be on Election Day but.
On the at least in the short term it looks like they've made a difference in voter registration Democrats had a real disadvantage to Republicans in voter registration just till a few months ago.
And the latest numbers have -- really closing that gap to just about 40000 voters.
So this confidence about Colorado sets from the Romney campaign do you think that that is real on the ground I mean you're you're talking like.
The Obama campaign has a lot of offices there but -- -- there's this sense inside the Romney campaign at least they're talking like Colorado is a real possibility.
Well it's definitely a real possibility for both campaigns.
-- and the Obama campaign was leading here for awhile but after the debate it's really kind of evened up.
And again it's hard to know you know just what kind of voter turnout efforts we're going to see in the last few weeks of this campaign from these field offices whether.
The Republican Party and -- some other conservative groups will be able to help out and the turnout efforts along those lines to.
OK final word Melissa and then job.
Yeah I was gonna say the same is true here in Ohio where Obama has about three and a half times as many field offices as Romney.
But I don't think that means that Romney doesn't have a good geo TV operation just today the executive director of the Republican Party at the state level.
Said that the party is knocked on over 300000 doors in the last week.
I'm in meanwhile the and the Democrats are also saying -- geo TV -- operation is terrific.
Get out the vote -- last work.
You have Republican Party here Brad essentially -- a vacancy sign in front of the told the.
Romney campaign in the RNC it take it over and there's some good people on the ground here but they've got to get they've got to cut into that Clark County edge in -- -- nine days of early voting -- it's gonna be too late.
Okay John Seth and Melissa thank you very much really appreciate it.