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-- twelve days are all the remain until voters head to the polls for what I believe is the most important election in your lifetime now in a moment -- -- will be here.
Tell crunched -- numbers on the state of this race spoke first brand new polls are proving that governor Mitt Romney continues to gain momentum tonight according to know latest Gallup poll.
Among likely voters Romney remains in the lead fifty to 47%.
Now historically no candidate with 50% in a major head to head poll this late in the race has lost the election.
And when it comes down to the issues according to a brand new Associated Press poll there seems that there is no -- gender gap.
Now governor Romney has -- the president's lead over the key voting group women.
And they are now tied at forty -- 7% each and among independents.
Governor Romney is surging past President Obama.
According to a brand new ABC news Washington Post poll.
The governor is nineteen points ahead -- the president.
That's 57 -- 38%.
And when it comes to who is better equipped to handle the economy.
Well that same poll reveals that more voters believe the governor Romney is and that's 52 to 43 and now on to the all important swing states and according to the latest Fox News poll in Virginia governor Romney is leading by two points that's 47 a 45%.
Now this growing surge in many demographics could be partly due to the fact that Republicans are more energized than Democrats.
A new pew research poll finds that 73% of Republicans say this election is interest thing.
While only 66% of Democrats feel that way.
Now the Obama campaign can try and spin all these new polls anyway they want but the numbers don't lie.
And joining me now with reaction and analysis the architect Fox News contributor Karl Rove -- Mario.
Sean you don't need me you did a terrific job there that's fabulous well done well on them -- trying to set the stage for your great analysis.
You pointed this out in your column today in the Wall Street Journal you talk about number one the state of the race.
Let's go through this first let's start with the national polls Rasmussen Gallup ABC news Washington Post exactly the same.
Yeah up look away another way to look at this is this way.
As of 5 o'clock tonight in the last week there have been 35 national polls in seven days between the eighteenth -- -- 25.
President Obama was at or above 50% you know one of 35.
Governor Romney was at or above 50% and eleven if you average them all together it's 483.
That is you know in 2008.
President Bush in the same.
Period in the same.
Was about three points ahead if you look at real clear politics today the average was 479 Romney.
47 Obama that was -- tick down for.
And President Obama and take up for governor Romney so -- the look we're we're close to the election.
An absent some major episode -- I'm mad as some big inflection point.
It's going to be awfully hard to change the direction of it and President Obama is in more trouble than those numbers might indicate because look.
If you're the incumbent president you've got to be at or above 50% the undecideds.
At the end are unlikely to break towards you and in a close race like this every bit of evidence we got is that the president's detractors are more energized and his supporters are.
Particularly his supporters in the Latino and and among them a millennial C eighteen to 29 year old voters they're just not enthusiastic -- all -- -- the president's got the president has got to get himself up above fifty.
And the strategy that he's adopted I think is unlikely to get him.
-- we'll get to that you mentioned that you column today but -- first let's start with some of the swing states.
How confident are you that Florida -- I would say it's pretty much a -- a complete North Carolina Indiana they turned.
-- -- We -- -- Virginia -- of that as well and I think Republicans are well poised to take Colorado and New Hampshire today I think and Florida.
Well well -- Florida -- North Carolina Indiana and Virginia thinker our our our mood there are in the Republican camp and becoming more so virtually every day.
And particularly if you take a look at the early vote in Florida.
Do you know it's clear the Republicans have done an excellent job of not only banking more votes.
But banking more from people who were less likely to vote that is to say more of the Democrat early voting and most of these states.
Ohio for example 42% of the early vote that the Democrats have bank are people who voted in three out of the last four elections.
Those are the people are gonna vote no matter what what you wanna be focused on as you wanna be focused on the people are more exotic or sporadic voters.
The people voted and 01.
Or two of the last four and Al -- voted three out of four and house governor Romney trending in -- early voting Ohio.
Well that they would do much better than four years ago effective you look at some of these major counties.
Huge turnaround in the number of of early votes cast by Republicans compared to were they where they were four years ago and a decline for the Democrats now.
That's on top of the fact that we had a huge decline several 100000.
People taken off the voter rolls names taken -- the voter rolls.
As not voters mostly in the Democrat parts of the -- significant number in the northeastern part of the state centered on Cuyahoga County Cleveland.
There were taken off the voter rolls so you know Ohio is tight in the polls but again my sense is -- we're likely to see.
A Romney victory in the state because the momentum is with them.
And his people are more energized.
And and the president's got a lousy lousy -- here at the end and Romney's got one that's optimistic upbeat and and for the looking.
Because that's a state I think everybody's been talking about Ohio it's 4747.
Right now in the latest polls.
But you seem fairly confident based on early voting trends information history.
He -- all the models that they've been using -- -- the pollsters a lot of little bowl back 2008.
I don't see that model emerging again in 2012 to you.
No no I don't and wanna look -- not.
I don't wanna be -- you know I don't wanna -- is done and cooked it's not I don't go to the right direction it's going in the right direction and we -- warning sign would be if in early voting.
That we were getting anything close to what it looks like in 2008 and if you take a look at the early vote.
And you extrapolate from that what what deal did Obama movie down two or three points Republicans moving up two or three points this it was a state that Obama won by.
4% and so if you got to him trending downward three or four points and Romney trending up a couple points as opposed to McCain you got a -- it's like that in up in the Republican.
And tell aren't so -- governor Romney were to win Florida North Carolina Virginia Colorado and New Hampshire that brings -- to 200 watts 61 electoral votes to 61 and he takes Ohio -- it gets him to 278 -- gets into.
Two over the 76 but that his company's out of shape did you ever think Michigan would be dead even now we got to polish and Michigan even.
Wisconsin is dead even and we've even had a couple polls -- that have come out of Pennsylvania.
That -- Pennsylvania's competitive off let me also play -- governor Ed Rendell former governor of Pennsylvania said about Pennsylvania wants us.
And maybe they -- -- to have collapses.
Republicans still turn out well and -- -- to cross the finish line and do a startling upset.
And I believe that that's a possibility of follow -- Pennsylvania that he believes that's a possibility.
Do you really see Wisconsin.
You see -- as toss -- states as says some of these polls show.
I think they're I think -- in the in the category of battlegrounds I'd I'd I'd say that the race is mortal is is is more favorable to present to governor Romney and states like Florida North Carolina Virginia Colorado New Hampshire.
And that the race is more of a toss up in states like Nevada Iowa Wisconsin Ohio.
But yeah they're clearly within the question is do you have enough time do you have enough money because.
You know governor Romney had a good first seventeen days of -- of October raising a 118 million dollars.
The question is inside the headquarters it here in Boston.
They're trying to figure out how -- we deploy these resources to put these states away.
And keep the momentum go on and that requires expenditure money and more importantly the expenditure of the -- candidates time.
The biggest determinant assume that both sides have roughly equal amounts of money spent in -- on roughly equal amounts of television.
That it comes down to two things the quality of the message.
And second where you put the candidates play as the biggest damn well look they're the biggest impact you have a -- television wars are sort of roughly equal levels.
Comes down to how often is a candidate there because that helps -- break through all kinds of media and gives people a chance to see him up close and personal and then.
The quality of the message now I think he'll let President Obama is making a fundamental mistake here as we come to the clothes you take a look at the ads that are up this week the ads are.
Mostly not exclusively but mostly.
And then this big -- talking about a plan which is try to fill in a big old people do not think he has a plan and it's too late I think did you create the sense he's got one.
On the other end -- he's got a pretty good solid message.
The countries in difficult shape I got a plan to do something about it and I was a Republican governor -- heavily Democrat state that was able to get things done.
All right Karl Rove great analysis great article today twelve days ago called Super Bowl time game on get those pads on.
Yes -- all right and.
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