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Former presidential candidate explains the 'Carville Rule' and how the shift in momentum doesn't bode well for President Obama
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Just twelve days until Election Day they -- -- racing through swing states and tonight.
Governor Romney gaining ground big time in Virginia the latest -- -- showing governor Romney now leading -- Bob by two point.
47% to 45%.
Now one month ago pres Obama eleven Virginia by seven points.
And in Michigan this is a big change a -- for Detroit's fox TV station -- governor Romney and President Obama are now tied at 47%.
And of course that's not -- tonight.
Governor Romney also wiping out the president's lead among women.
According to the latest associated press and GFK poll governor Romney has now tied the president at 47% each I'm just a month ago.
President Obama -- sixteen point advantage among women.
Former speaker of the house -- it's just -- -- and good evening from good LBJ school -- University of Texas understand tonight.
I'm not I'm I'm here -- Austin had a wonderful time at the LBJ school long.
Delighted to be -- you.
Our analysts to just go to your adopted home state of Virginia now what a change in a month.
Governor Romney out now up two points a month ago and President Obama was up seven -- -- nine point differential in a month what happened.
-- -- -- This first of all.
And the anxiety -- for harmonies of our many viewers.
I believe the minimum result.
Will be 5347.
Romney over 300 electoral votes and the Republicans will pick up the senate.
-- -- that -- just years and years of experience but take a look at the momentum.
James Carville taught me many years ago.
That you if you're the incumbent you get the last.
Number.
In the poll you don't -- anybody so to go back to the numbers you just gave us and just destroy segment do you do it easily read Obama is number.
And he's like 454746.
Mean if that's where he ends up and that's and that's the Carville -- -- a good role.
Then his gonna lose an amazing number of states states that are tied if they're tied 4747.
That means that the incumbents at 47 guess what that's called losing.
Now -- get that kind of a surge Virginia is a good example I think George -- gonna win.
So you gotta pick up a senate seat.
You go around I was -- Tommy Thompson two nights ago.
And fact Callista is in lacrosse tonight doing a book signing for her new.
Ellis the elephant book and will -- Tommy Thompson two nights -- did a fund raiser for him.
He's up three points she was down eleven.
Six weeks ago is up three he's commenced as a guy who's won five straight times in Wisconsin he's gonna carry estate and he believes absolutely.
That the Romney -- and ticket is gonna do very well in Wisconsin.
The people are excited to have Paul Ryan of Wisconsin on the ballot now you start carrying a Wisconsin.
The Virginia is getting is sealed off.
Florida is gonna -- sealed off North Carolina is already sealed off as you point out Michigan starting to be in play I think Pennsylvania starting to be in play.
-- it's a much bigger arena if you watch the president this morning I'm not can repeat what he said.
But if you watch the president this morning this is a guy who's really rattled he'd -- lost to Bobby Rush.
Really badly in a primary many years ago.
And I think he's getting that feeling that this could be like Bobby Rush and he could just go down I don't think he's very comfortable.
Think you are being an ex president.
You know I haven't and that was going to some of those states out with questions you know I'm from Wisconsin I have thought that there was Johnson would go for governor Romney eight and one of the reasons was because -- congressman Paul Ryan is from a very very democratic district in -- in advertisements are curious.
How you can get elected as Republicans so many times but he is so well liked in a new look at the -- -- -- in in death for years ago -- Obama won by fourteen points was Johnson.
But then two years later they elected a Republican governor then they had a huge fight and -- recall anyone Biden a larger margin when he was elected so the trend has been has been moving in that dress was just -- slash am not surprised -- Wisconsin.
But he's turned -- narrowed as a Scott Walker I ask you what's gonna happen.
The couple weeks ago he said.
This team they've built the way they won the recall he's confident with Paul Ryan and ticket they're gonna win.
I saw John -- governor of Ohio couple nights ago.
He said it's on the road they're gonna get there I talked to John to -- Rob Portman today senator from Ohio he said he thinks it's coming together in the right -- way.
-- a huge issue in Ohio they just announced recently five billion.
Barrels of oil in the Akron can't -- Area around.
Youngstown.
Many new jobs you -- -- imagine the new North Dakota could be Ohio.
These kind of things -- all coming together a very positive way for Romney.
And you have Obama who.
You know failed to show up for the first debate.
Was far too aggressive in the second and third debates has a vice president who look frankly irrational like -- drunk five Red Bulls in a row.
Before the vice presidential debate and and that's all I think beginning to build -- pressure.
That the pressure in Chicago -- on the Obama campaign right now must be extraordinary.
What is -- I don't have a -- I mean so many political strategists say say that you know meticulous -- -- Ohio no no Republicans -- become president hasn't won Ohio and the unemployment level it is in Ohio was down below than the national average and if you say that there -- is new business.
Horizon.
Why President Obama doesn't get the credit for that and why that would not mean -- suggest that voters would go.
Towards president -- over governor Romney.
Well on energy there are two things -- heard from President Obama the first is every single person goes and fills up -- their tank with gas.
They pay two dollars a gallon extra.
For every single gallon because of Obama's policies -- that is the Obama attacks -- working Americans two dollars a gallon every time you fill up your -- second.
Increasingly people are aware that the Obama Environmental Protection Agency will close down.
Since stopped the very processes.
That are gonna create those jobs in Ohio so if you if you want those jobs in Ohio you got to defeat Barack Obama.
To stop his bureaucrats.
From strangling the state of Ohio it's as simple and I think.
Does that message sanction my impression is -- -- I was always a competitive state has a very strong Republican Party.
It's basically conservative -- down along the the Ohio River valley.
The war on coal by Obama has alienated county after county you look at the fund amid the basic.
Every day conservatism places like Cincinnati.
And you see that there's a really good opportunity year I believe the Romney will carry Ohio.
I also believe that the Republicans are going to win the US senate race in Ohio so I'm I'm pretty optimistic.
That this thing is gonna come together in the right away.
I want taken those dire predictions so that you know I can talk to the day after election they see where where you are you mark up but mr.
speaker do it did not go away because we have -- -- about after this break.
