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Will four states decide outcome of 2012 race?

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    Importance of IA, NH, OH and WI

  • Duration 3:59
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This economy is gonna come roaring back we're gonna create twelve million new jobs and just four years we'll see -- take home pay.

And we'll get America's economy growing at 4% a year more than double this -- rate.

Well governor -- calling for bold changes the economy and a major speech in Iowa why Iowa -- my next guess.

Says because as one of four crucial states they could decide this entire election and it doesn't with the -- examiner.

Pretty down for David well.

For you know.

In in recent days -- we've seen is in North Carolina looks very much like it's going to governor Romney.

Florida definitely leaning that direction and even Virginia despite some of the polls.

Looking better for Obama.

The Obama campaign sort of that you had officials quietly telling Major Garrett of National Journal that that's looking more like a -- state so where does -- get fought out.

It gets fought out in Ohio he gets fought out in New Hampshire -- gets put out an Iowa and Wisconsin and basically.

If Romney can hold on all those other states I mention -- get Ohio.

He wins if he can if he can't get Ohio he could still win by getting Wisconsin and either of the other two New Hampshire or Iowa.

Although that's sort of a less likely path.

Nevada which was on the map really seems to have gone for Obama the -- Romney campaign is very pessimistic about it according to the latest reports.

All right now -- these polls say that right now the president leads.

And it's not in all four of these states and then -- Well if if President Obama wins all four obviously he's reelected and.

-- a -- -- there's no factoring out.

Surprising wins for Romney Els or is that the least that -- with Wisconsin and Ohio that the speaks of the midwest and sort of the Rust Belt.

Sticking with the president not going to Romney making his climb even with Virginia even -- North Carolina winning Indiana back and not enough.

Not enough no idea he could make up for a by winning Pennsylvania for example but that's that's viewed as highly unlikely.

For one thing if if if Romney's having this much of a tough time and Ohio which is a more Republican states in Pennsylvania.

What how is he gonna win there -- the argument for Pennsylvania would be that.

Nobody's been advertising there it's kind of a virgin market you can go in you could define things right away with the messaging and the other guys in doing it yet it's just that it that's a really expensive messages sent.

Very low likelihood of success for Romney did trying that out.

Can you see in all your polling -- stated the possible -- 2000 type deal where you know.

Got one -- wins the popular vote the other guy wins the electoral vote in this case according to most of the -- not all of them.

Mitt Romney has a -- up to three point lead in the popular vote nationally not so in the electoral vote I mean not right.

Statistically.

It's more.

Likely than we think is it non.

I I do -- remember feeling this way during the 2000 election that there was a disconnect between.

The national polls and the state polls and on Election Day and then for the following month I remember fifty.

Feeling that you know like you couldn't please won't this thing just and died you know I also remember in 2004.

Though.

That it still came down to Ohio and -- -- not that far off from having view that split you know we were what about seventy or 80000 votes away.

From having an electoral verses so popular -- -- -- at some sort of -- -- that state.

Ozzie has really lost what three million votes but he wouldn't president because he would have been -- No that's right so it's it's certainly possible maybe some people discount the possibility too much you know buy it it doesn't seem likely it hasn't happened that often but then again when you know you say that about things being unprecedented in the all the sudden they tend -- happened on that they do indeed David thank you very much -- -- -- you know.

Of the Washington examiner.

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