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Welcome back to The Journal Editorial Report I'm about to go well -- just ten days left the outcome of the presidential election no doubt hinges on a relatively small group of key states.
But perhaps not the states that either campaign or the political pundits might have expected recent polls show the race tightening in Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania and Michigan.
All of which President Obama carried by double digits in 2010.
My guess this -- -- Mitt Romney.
May have suburban voters to thank Michael Barone as a senior political analyst for the Washington examiner and resident fellow.
At the American Enterprise Institute Michael great to have you back.
It's gonna be with you again so where do you think this race stands right now wise -- surging as much as the polls would appear to make it seem.
Yeah I think Romney is ahead in the race in the national race I think he is.
Within striking distance of the 270.
Electoral votes he needs.
In public areas of the country where he's made the greatest good gains when you right here him with the showing of John McCain in 2008.
Appears to be the affluent suburbs.
Once upon a time affluent suburbs were solid Republican territory George H.
Bush in 1988.
Got big margins in them and carried states like Pennsylvania Ohio Michigan Illinois California.
In the four suburban counties outside Philadelphia bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery got 61%.
Of the vote that I zeroed out.
The democratic margin in the city of -- and Philadelphia.
Yet if you look at their over the last twenty years there's been a democratic trend in the affluent suburbs and so Barack Obama carried those four counties in Pennsylvania with 57% of the vote and I carried the state.
Mitt Romney who grew up in Bloomfield hills Michigan Richard -- -- -- suburb.
-- right well I grew up in the same -- went to the same high school so I'm quite familiar with it.
He seems to be doing better.
If you look at the battleground poll or the pew research poll where you've got pretty big sample so if you get a sub sample you have some confidence numbers -- -- -- You -- that rob me post October 3 debate.
He is carrying.
-- -- it apparently statistically significant margin 78 points.
-- people with incomes over 75000.
Dollars Barack Obama.
Carried them fifty to 49 according the exit poll in 2008.
Romney's made bigger gains with a high income people -- with people in the lower income category you know the swing over the last twenty years and those affluent suburbs has been attributed a lot towards Democrats contribute a lot to the culture to such a cultural issues is gay marriage abortion and so on the southern tilt of the Republican Party.
Is the swing back this year really because of the economy trumping culture in the minds of most voters.
Well I think that's true or false statements of voters the economy is trumping the cultural issues it sort of -- them out.
I think also Mitt Romney is more the kind of candidate that.
People and affluent suburbs tend to cotton to.
He's he's from those suburbs himself he he won the Republican nomination basically an affluent suburban counties.
And he's the he's got a you know he's he he showed himself for that first debate to be more articulate.
Then Barack Obama supposedly great orator.
People and affluent suburbs like people who articulate people who use words -- would.
As I like -- The end.
And that's an advantage that Mitt Romney's hair as -- and that he demonstrated to great effect there.
And I think.
You know I I wrote early years here in the Washington examiner that Romney was you know kindred spirit to many affluent people he's articulate but politically awkward and recreation.
He's able to make a sharp point but he's polite about it.
In keys twice conservative from the cultural issues he has an attitude that reminds me of the inscription on the tombstone of an eighteenth century English woman which noted approvingly she was religious without enthusiasts.
Well -- here's what about this this this democratic argument you're hearing now that says okay all of that might be true but that the Republicans have no chance at Michigan and Pennsylvania anyway and look.
In Ohio which the -- Republicans have to win.
The Romney has to win.
That's where Barack Obama is still leading still leading Wisconsin and Iowa and and Nevada that's just firewall and -- -- -- can break through that.
He's not gonna win the election.
-- firewall used to include Florida and Virginia and -- not talking about that his firewall states anymore with Romney ahead in Florida.
The very fact that Michigan and end.
Pennsylvania which Obama carried by sixteen points and ten points four years ago.
I've gotten close I think has got to be an indication that the affluent suburbs Oakland -- Livingston county Michigan bucks Chester Delaware counties in Pennsylvania.
Have been moving towards Romney in a significant way.
And I think that you know -- the Democrats are giving you static analysis there.
-- I think there may be a dynamic at work here.
The affluent suburbs are places that people generally tend to turn out in large numbers.
-- and we've seen signs that Republicans have more enthusiasm this year -- -- my I think one reason Ohio is.
Is closer is that affluent suburban counties are only about an -- of the statewide votes there and there are quarter Michigan and Pennsylvania but -- -- the Republicans Romney campaign -- saying I'm making a major major investment and Ohio time and money.
But if it are they making taking a gamble.
By making about Ohio that if they lose they will not have fought more invested a lot of money or time in Michigan and Pennsylvania which they might win are they making a wrong bat on hot.
Well I think they're probably making it -- correct bet -- Ohio Ohio's eighteen electoral votes are pretty important to them.
If I was them I would be going up on the Philadelphia -- Detroit media markets or at least being serious consideration to it.
Because those are the ones that get the bulk of the affluent suburbs in those states.
You've -- so.
I'd be going up with -- ads geared to that that population.
Right Michael -- thanks so much for being here.
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