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Romney pulls ahead in Ohio

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    New Rasmussen poll shows GOP nominee with a two-point lead

  • Duration 6:22
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Fox News alert from the campaign trail -- a brand new Rasmussen poll showing governor Mitt Romney now leads President Obama.

Among likely voters in the critical battleground state of Ohio.

This is a first in this race.

And it is a significant shift from just a week ago when the president and governor Ronnie.

Were tied at 48% in most polls the president had been leading governor Romney.

In Ohio.

-- are -- -- our Fox News digital politics editor and host a power plant foxnews.com live.

The candidates largely suspending a lot of there at election reelection -- activities today Chris although -- mid Ohio has a couple of events.

And so to some of the western states because they're not being affected by sandy but Ohio.

How many times -- you and I talked about these likely voter polls and exit polls tightening in several swing states but talked about how is it really -- matter.

If Romney loses Ohio because no Republicans ever won the White House without a note no sooner do we have that discussion for the umpteenth time and -- -- it comes out of the poll showing.

As far as we can tell for the first time governor -- he's taken the lead there.

Well yeah -- and here's the thing -- and we've -- we've seen all along.

That Romney couldn't quite close in Ohio even when he was up in other states and as he's continued to do better in places like Florida and Virginia.

You know Ohio has -- this pivotal but he couldn't close the gap with the president what we've seen has been this slow motion surge for Mitt Romney.

Started after his first debate and it's move forward point by point it's been not a landslide it's not been explosive but what it has been -- steady.

And that's what Mitt Romney has -- like is that he continues to gain ground.

We now know that Ohio is essentially a tie but before -- been a tie with the -- that slight advantage for the president.

Now it's the other way and if -- Mitt Romney you have to like that this close to Election Day.

As -- watch the storm surge on the beach in Point Pleasant New Jersey we talk about a possible surge forget for governor Romney in Ohio.

For him.

It couldn't come at a better time clearly were eight days out from the from the election Chris but you look behind the Rasmussen numbers to figure out how he did it.

In Ohio how he got to this point where it's now you know and it's one poll but it's it's the only poll he's -- -- Ohio showing him ahead.

And -- is his numbers show that Romney has a twelve point advantage on the economy and who do you trust should handle the economy in Ohio.

It was just a seven point advantage last week for Romney -- so he's gone up to twelve in a week what did that.

Well what's done that is and we've seen this other polls we've talked about this and other polls -- way that independents are breaking for Romney.

What -- he's been able to count on all along through this election is that the Republican base has stood behind him foursquare there with him no matter what.

Even if he moves to the -- or anything else that he does.

They've stood with him through this because they -- want the president out of office.

But now the independence and we see it day after day poll after poll.

Our breaking Romney's way.

Now what that means is that.

The president is gonna have a lot of work to do to get his base out and voting to try to -- com.

This the -- advantage in momentum from Enron to his.

Is that Iran is now that the -- twelve point advantage on the economy.

And he's got a ten point advantage on the issue of foreign policy and national security which had typically also been an area which President Obama was dominating.

That has that -- -- eroded but he's now ten points behind Romney in Ohio on that issue I want to ask you though.

Because dresses and looks at the numbers and Ohio's one of the states in the union that allows early voting typically advantageous to the Democrats and so it is in this race.

They hit he says that Obama leads 62%.

To 36%.

Among the early voters in Ohio and one in three Ohio voters has already cast his ballot so.

13 of the Art Howe electric -- cast their ballot and Obama's leading 62 to 36% Ronnie has a large lead among those who still planned to vote.

But that's a big gap to make up.

It's a big gap to make up but we remember this is a sample within the sample this isn't this is -- a huge number of people that you're talking about here inside this -- but the other thing is this.

Any given Republican votes at a higher frequency than any given Democrat on a per capita basis Republicans though with higher intensity historically that's especially true this year because of an enthusiasm gap.

That means that the president needs to do overwhelmingly well in early voting and he needs to use the months of advantage that he had in terms of fund raising in time an organization years.

But advantage on organization to drag as many Democrats to the polls as he possibly can't.

Because if this election were just on Election Day like it used to be before some of the incumbents and particularly Democrats X succeeded in turning this into election month.

If it was just Election Day you'd expect the president to lose by pretty -- margin but he's got to use every second of this time to get his people to the polls to offset brownies -- man.

Well on on that front hurricane sandy is a political matter is a distraction.

It's potentially I suppose an opportunity we saw the president addressing the nation from the White House a short time ago from the briefing room he.

He's made comments about pending storms in the past I think with hurricane sandy was.

The audio it wasn't an on camera thing if memory serves but in any event and how does this hurricane play.

Politically.

Well if it's very very bad or if the president and the president shows himself as -- George W.

Bush kind of bullhorn moment it could be big for him.

Conversely if there's a -- if there's a problem.

We think about Katrina we think that other things this could be bad for the president but let's say that the federal response is appropriate proportion and all those things it.

People just expect him to do that they expect that to happen the real issue here -- is Florida.

Virginia.

New Hampshire and later this week Ohio.

What happens to this much needed push for early voting by the Democrats that they had staked their victory out.

What happens to that when polls are closed.

Or people don't want to go vote because there's racial rain lashing at that so that's a serious consideration the president can't afford to give up any days and minutes.

Of this early voting drive that's so crucial to Democrat.

Some -- and Chris thank you so much Washington DC also on the cross hairs on this storm so we will continue to watch it.

There as well as --

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