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Good morning I'm Doug -- -- here with.
My friend and colleague pat -- -- and joining us.
By remote via Skype is our third to partner and colleague judge probably -- good morning John good morning pat.
Welcome to the -- I guess we call this the pen ultimate.
Campaign insiders before the 2012.
Much to go over I would like to begin -- -- and and hurricane sandy has John.
Alive and well but.
Trapped in his.
Home in the long arms so we welcome you John let's get right to it if we could put number three.
Then number four -- on the street.
OK we see here that Gallup data.
I think it goes through like can't quite see the into the field work -- I think at some point over the weekend it has looked likely voters 2700.
Interviews a four point Romney lead.
Fifty to forty sex.
The Rasmussen poll.
Through that when he.
Fifteen of the 27.
Has a three point.
Romney lead pat what do you make of this what's happening with the national popular well.
Well the national popular vote is still very close mobile will be that is.
-- you'd like to say inexorably slowly moving toward governor Romney.
No this is the period when historically.
We've seen the incumbent party get a bump.
Because challenger and -- party failed to make their case.
I'm not sure we're seeing that the selection.
But the the move but we're seeing -- -- it is significant.
And I think it's buttressed by two other factors.
Something we've talked about every week on this program.
President Obama's approval it.
He has taken quite a bowl.
And in -- from Tuesday the 23 -- -- -- tomorrow.
Is dropped from 53 to 47.
And they commensurate rise and and and an -- and disapproval.
And the same -- -- music so now what's the state chart showing these kinds of movements but they of the national polls also are often.
Read the stateside upon millions.
I do John what's your take on what's going on -- are essentially don't yesterday on Fox News Channel I'm trying to figure out -- -- -- from last week -- Happened after the last debate.
Monday night -- -- policy.
Tuesday Wednesday why did Obama start to -- And the only thing I can think yours yet we talk about -- then god.
Or it's a lot of personal appearances that are always broadcast everywhere on TV where he really got going on -- -- -- sure -- And he really doesn't look presidential.
-- looks -- he doesn't look like that Barack Obama 2008.
And many people just have rejected it went all -- -- utilities ended up.
And -- and any campaign you said yesterday equal take a look at the whole time and it's a thumbs down by a percentage more people now.
On the president and that's why these numbers change.
Pat do you -- John's analysis I think there may be something to -- I think the president does not look good.
I think he -- spoken back on the attack.
You know it's very hard for him they're very -- to what campaign insiders laid out as their strategic goal.
In the spring which is failure to have a record.
For you -- -- -- ready to have a campaign for a second term -- -- what they're gonna run on which is hard enough mobile would all try to do to make it better.
They're trying to mix us up at the end -- attacking Romney.
And I also think we don't know.
But -- some of the spring -- stop only Fox's and a few other news outlets have been covering it but it must be seeping into the consciousness somewhere let.
Let me offer a couple of a couple of comments on what pat you said and what -- -- first on President Obama.
Things that I think in this came from a loyal fan and -- of campaign insiders.
Who sits -- the -- I think we would all agree with -- certainly -- He's -- -- the Obama campaign.
Is only really been good at negative ads -- first debate.
They never ever told anyone what they thought they accomplished.
In the first term.
What they thought they did right stabilizing.
The economy for example and more importantly they've never told anyone what they planned to do.
In the second term.
So this -- of campaign insiders saw loyalists.
Said how do you vote to reelect a man who didn't tell you.
What he did to deserve reelection.
And what he plans to do to win.
Of the American people.
That's point one -- I don't get to in the second pat you can point to.
-- was I proposed campaign insiders and John I think you'll be gratified to hear this as well.
I listen before we went on yesterday haven't got a chance to mention this yesterday the governor Romney in Ohio.
From what he talked about was the middle class squeeze.
He talked about people beyond the 23 million unemployed who are working at lower wages.
Part time jobs.
Then they have had previously.
And how he had spoken to people.
Who are suffering they're not in the statistics but they certainly are having tougher lives.
And we had campaign insiders for the better part of I think the fifteen or sixteen months we've been doing this have been.
Suggesting that that's really where the narrative bits it's not.
The unemployed and as.
Concern as we are about them and we should be.
-- -- doomed the real old.
Focus of the election needs to be it's on those who -- partially employed discouraged workers the light.
Who rule are the true swing voters who no one until recently it has spoken about or spoken to -- your reaction.
I don't agree with you entirely -- because I believe.
Those people and I was involved in an effort unemployment film trying to locate those people help identify them.
For the producers and record the film hope and change with the voters -- voted for President Obama and always.
-- were Democrats independents alone one out and talked about and talked about.
What you could -- -- -- troops a year ago particularly whether they were -- I was doing you were doing them or axle rod was.
Don't look at it which is the discontent to disappointment.
They came up from an ideological -- -- the frame that he doesn't understand the we're being squeezed.
For the first time in this campaign I think Romney is speaking to that to those voters.
In the states -- we -- -- suddenly in play.
Parts of Wisconsin.
I Michigan Minnesota those are Democrats they need to move and -- those are Democrats are moving.
If that that disaffected voice what I called the voiceless.
And no one knows about -- moving.
Then we have then we have made substantial.
You know it's probably earlier many insiders are about all -- -- -- It's probably David upfront tell -- mr.
Huntsman -- or Bob trump or above they had their -- -- -- -- -- We not thinking back to when you know I first met in 1980.
-- -- an election and this is looking good -- but Al D'Amato who no one thought would ever win.
He ran on this exact -- of those forgotten middle class who.
And you know -- -- conservative Italian.
Long Island -- wasn't gonna win New York State but he did win any.
That I think the forgotten middle class is what's happening now and why it's taken Romney all this time to trust them directly.
I don't know but better late than -- -- and I but I hope he remembers those.
But it winds -- way neither has Obama Obama talks about the middle class is not the and -- right there and obstruction.
There's no connection with them not the way that I remember how democratic candidates for president.
Whether I can remember Bill Clinton I can remember Jimmy Carter I can remember George McGovern.
I can remember even Michael Dukakis could -- -- -- with people like who worked Berlin.
And pat let me take a camera or a Republican presidents or more -- time.
I think all -- well the middle class and you know why they all came from the middle clutch and they understood that it came from the lower middle class.
Well we have we you don't -- just put your finger on something John relations problem in the long -- for today but.
You know we have made politics a political class citizen certainly elite political class almost none of those people who -- emerge from.
The places we're talking about the -- Our leaders used to come from and you know what you can read all the books you want but unless you have the ability to -- them why we should feeling -- touch and knowledge.
It's hard to make it up but here here and thank you.
Reid had rich candidates in both parties both Roosevelt John Kennedy.
Who were born rich but they have -- common touch in the middle class really trust these people Mitt Romney born rich.
-- -- -- -- -- -- Was a self made man -- Has made a lot of money but he's just not effort to -- the common touch but at least he's trying Obama critter a privilege got a little war.
He doesn't happen at all these just doesn't relate to district on -- I think turning Auckland and -- moment.
Entry -- we're gonna -- a break in the second but before we do that.
Pat what are your expectations.
And John I'll ask you as well.
For the last week of the campaign what do you expect the candidates to do and how we'll be received.
Well I can I expect them I think -- you know all these campaigns are.
Running on them and I think I did Romney's actually showing some more intellectually.
Advanced thinking in our tendered in their teams suddenly.
They're giving them I don't know who they got immunity given to them.
Obama looks like to me flailing around they look at is there's a certain desperation of repeating the same attacks one day it's just attack another it's.
It's it's -- -- -- today and it's you know abortion the next and vote for me because whenever.
And and it's twenty page glossy booklet of -- on the line in the sections hash of what he's done and what's your impression what -- we receive the last week to the election.
Well I think this storm.
-- Obama a little bit because he's gonna go to Florida today campaign of President Clinton which would have gotten a lot of media attention.
He can't get there tonight -- storm.
I think they're gonna have to remake their schedule and I I think that's part of remaking what their arguments going to be the last week.
Meanwhile Romney's -- Wisconsin this week we talked so why don't they go to Wisconsin.
I found out this morning he has -- the cops insult.
There are more aggressive right now and Obama's tracking the White House.
When we're gonna get to the electoral map shortly and we'll go through each and every swing state.
Let me at this point -- Pat -- and absolutely I say we will be back in and about thirty seconds to a minute after a brief.
Break please stay with campaign insiders.
We turn next to the electoral map thanks -- -- end -- -- on and then October surprise.
Welcome back to campaign insiders arm Doug shone with John globally -- joining us remotely via Skype given the weather.
And Pat -- who battled the elements to walk a -- Today who is here from the news content from the news hotel and -- and the westside of Manhattan we're now -- turn.
To the electoral map I would like to put up number two.
And basically this is the real clear politics electoral map I think tough for me to.
Make it out on the screen but I will take thirty seconds.
And look I believe it is.
With the following -- will go state by state of the so called swing states.
The ones that are still imply it -- -- Florida where does that stand.
It appears to be you know these states have had huge amounts of money they seem to be moving a lot slower than the statement about I've talked about that.
I think Florida's moving Romney's way.
Q -- inexorably slowly.
-- -- little -- how do you see Florida's sand and it -- -- you think it's it's moving so I saw almost morning from the I four corridor which is the key you know like suburban.
Philadelphia or something whoever wins and it usually wins.
Ronnie result mindset and I believe that gets and I will tell you I've done some polling myself.
In that area and have come up with similar results.
That gets us to 200.
And -- seat one he wanted -- to twenty electronic.
Let's let's start moving north.
Had to dealt North Carolina well you know North Carolina hangs in there close.
Because the Obama campaign has such a fantastic operation.
That they use last year that John brought attention to which they did in the mayoral races they won -- they should win.
They had a day I'll let John tell a story about a but it's very it's closer than it should be.
But Romney's gonna win this -- begin when North Carolina where it globally when we have to go any further he's gonna win it it's moving it was slightly pro Obama.
I believe that you did -- was inexorably but again it's not moving as fast did you think it was on the move -- hatteras in north -- Well I think I'll go with Monty but the reason it's closer look pat alluded to they had this thing there called one stop early voting.
Where voters who are not registered can go to and -- -- -- -- -- malls.
And register and vote on the spot.
So those voters are not even.
In the polling that's been done -- are not registered voters until they should stop and there.
Radio show him in -- the other -- And during my spotted her commercial it was Obama running and it's still last Wednesday in North Carolina so.
The -- people still think they can -- -- North Carolina.
But for the sake of being conservative about it argued that -- -- now you're you're you're example what do they got 78000 -- you want them.
Don't -- one day 170000.
New registered this this and -- ginned up audio bumpy ride -- -- -- -- reduces the machinery of that -- -- both giving fifteen additional electoral votes.
To governor Romney notwithstanding.
-- your concern that.
Obama might might -- at all -- -- off we've got out were up to 235.
For governor Romney let's go to Virginia acted out.
Well -- think -- Virginia.
He's been close all along the northern suburbs of Washington suburbs of the political class are very had been strong for Obama.
-- -- Republicans and the rest of the state I think -- evil thing I I think it's slightly Romney it could go the other way.
But I think that the game always has been that Romney would take project.
Absolutely -- Virginia.
-- I think Obama's gonna win Virginia Tech Virginia is changing more he's worked and are somewhat right so when pat can Dell's formulation.
Romney would be -- 248.
John absolutely a Romney -- 235.
Let's move and we don't have.
Anything to put on the screen we will get to that -- Ohio let's get to neighboring Pennsylvania Pat -- What's going on Pennsylvania.
Look Pennsylvania is very close.
The senate races now there's a Republican self funded candidate he's done very well grew up as a minor.
He's -- now -- apparently close that race -- polls show that.
Presidential race is close I've always thought as a state that the Republicans can win but they've invested nothing in it.
So we still have to give it slightly to Obama.
But I wouldn't be shocked if Pennsylvania went early in the night and I think if the Republicans.
Understood the probably game of expanding opportunity in the last week.
They would go when they are harder and they would have a better chance in pulling him out.
Let's go to the northern most swing state New Hampshire.
I'm sorry John I -- Don't you know short trip I don't know how to -- -- -- I agree that you probably Obama ultimately got to get to October -- okay yeah we're gonna get there.
Well that -- gone back or.
I sort of showed great vehicle they say the wrong numbers -- New Hampshire and I've seen other people there say Obama I.
I have no idea that any idea.
I think -- and New Hampshire is gonna go away countries don't.
And it from them and whoever's ahead of the instant -- So we got to question marks a New Hampshire.
Let's go put up those full screens that we have on Ohio which is number one and number five can we get those up please.
OK we have the first poll from the Columbus Dispatch consortium of newspapers.
Let's get the -- Rasmussen number five up.
Take in roughly the same time.
-- you know what's happening in Ohio.
Well Romney is closing up and here's what I don't understand.
Romney is on the move and Ohio right it is clear we have indications from source but it's not public that we -- government.
That Romney may have actually be moving into a lead in -- But the question is how many Little Richard you know they've banked a lot of votes he'll bomb operation Ohio is gigantic and heavy.
And it makes me and that's always been -- plan firewall.
And I think right now it's just get up in the air it could be like it was in 2000 -- John now and -- I personally think that Obama is gonna win all I and I a -- line quickly.
Go back -- 2004.
Bush for president running for reelection she had the best ever up till that point.
On the ground and get out the vote operation.
Running against a stick or candidate named John -- And bush is president and can barely -- Ohio he did want buddy wanna -- 50004.
Years later Obama Easley wants Ohio.
Here we are this year Romney has never led once in Ohio.
I cannot look at that and think good thoughts about Republicans winning a lot of -- I just don't look let's go to Wisconsin.
-- it looks looks.
Whether your formula John right now Obama told locked up the electrical that is correct you are predicting John -- an Obama victory.
I'm given in Nevada two putted well pretty lucky given -- -- give it and pat how do you see Wisconsin.
I think Wisconsin look Wisconsin has been.
-- the most Republican trending states since 2010.
Remember we had a presidential election almost near turn -- -- on the recall of skull walker.
The Republicans won six point they have an organization there Brian's on the ticket.
I think that state is close but I think that that could be.
I'm not I'm a little surprised him but not much -- not much.
I think it's going to be within -- pointer to -- but your your market hazard a guess.
I'm -- I'm glad this is what I want.
I don't know how well yes and do what I think is that the Democrats who in response about well here's here's my problem of what -- ball -- -- the states.
If Romany if Romney who's been running three important points if that margin -- start to come down.
But in fact expands nationally it is mathematically.
If he ends up with -- there once you get over three points mr.
it is mathematically impossible Lucy Electoral College -- -- now okay let.
We start what's the Chris.
Chris service fifty.
Sandy in the -- from -- guys they are both October surprises.
Sandy does benefit mr.
Obama as much as it distracts from his lack of leadership.
In the Libyan foreign policies -- the -- -- you begin that we turn to pat.
Well my -- can you imagine sandy happened a week from today going into the election god nine states should be -- on election and thank god required.
I think it probably freezing the race a little bit and only fox talking and Gaza the rest of the media won't even bring it up sick and pat.
What's your take on what's gone on -- -- -- Limbaugh on the much Edelman does do very straightforward it is the ultimate October surprise we've had one.
In 2010 -- have an article up today.
It's up on -- par which is called October surprise sealed -- remember election it's a history of October surprises and relevance on this and I will tell you.
It is -- 2010.
On their own little cartridge bomber incidence of the White House overplayed.
They got 9% of the voters at the very end a -- only on that and overwhelmingly democratic.
I think this is a danger for for Obama because it's not about foreign policy it is about his character.
His trustworthiness of telling the truth transparency.
And -- the ball leadership.
And the Republicans however but yet there are two reasons it's not as powerful to should be.
Won the mainstream press is in the tank in a way that is just -- that is historically terrified.
How they suppress all news.
And how they treated in order to reelect Obama and the second is the -- -- -- of the Republican Party which doesn't seem to understand.
That they think they're they are so wooden headed which is all its economy let -- run on the economy.
No these character if if -- there -- doubts about Obama's character.
He will lose he's finish.
But they will not raise them that they'll -- of Romney deserted the issue.
Buried the issue in the second debate they've abandoned entirely -- and there's a moral case to be made here.
That this is an issue that should be raised and it should be talked about John we've got thirty seconds -- -- final.
-- -- -- -- -- And -- were lucky the last Monday night's debate about why -- governor Romney didn't bring up thank god has seen in fact agreement Obama on every night.
And -- just trust tax that I I was waiting for -- to endorse Obama.
That's how ridiculous it got when he ought to be drawing a distinction and standing up or something -- -- -- Well let let me conclude with a sort of contrary thought if the tide is with governor Romney and he -- put his foot in his mouth so many times.
Maybe daring to be -- makes sense anyway.
But that being said John the -- as of today is predicting an Obama Electoral College victory under current circumstances.
Pat -- -- if I understood correctly is indicating that things are pointing in the direction of governor Romney and I am firmly on the offense but I will take.
-- clear stand next Monday.
And he had a thirty and a lot of other vehicle on the Fox News Channel for John absolutely right and Pat Caddell -- -- show.
-- -- -- -- -- -- They don't think you.
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