Who’s really ahead in the race for the White House?
Rove, Trippi break down the numbers
- Duration 5:58
- Date Oct 29, 2012
Rove, Trippi break down the numbers
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We are now just one week and one day from what could be one of the closest presidential elections in history it's hard to believe we're that close and no matter how the popular vote goes it's the elect -- -- college that really decides the winner as we've been saying from the beginning.
Let's find out as we do every week where that stands right now joining me today Karl Rove.
Former bush senior advisor in Austin, Texas and joining me in Washington democratic strategist Joseph Trippi OK gentlemen let's take a look at the map.
You can see the info on the key red Romney blue Obama -- pink -- is -- Romney like blue.
Lean Obama and the yellow states those are tossup states within the margin of error and a reminder this is all based this map right here -- looking at.
Polls within the last two weeks OK Carl what has changed since last week the last time we talked.
Well first of all we have now a record number of state level poll 69 last week and 28 states.
Twelve states showed movement towards Romney.
-- -- showed movement towards Obama but interestingly enough only two states change their status small one of the -- numbers we've seen since we began this exercise in April.
One will not a surprise find somebody finally ran a poll in Tennessee and -- state went from -- Romney did very deep solid ground.
But the other one isn't interested surprise Michigan battleground state now went from lean Obama to toss up.
And that that that is a big shift of about eighteen Electoral College votes.
Those -- obviously -- -- -- a big you can that's a big if that's really going in the tossup column and is according to polls that's a big big move because that opens up another way for Romney to get there another place that Obama has to block.
But this is but look we've been in the same place essentially in a little bit more -- -- to Romney but since August it's been the same and in the two states it's still stand out from -- Wisconsin.
And Ohio it's clear now.
There Romney has to win one of those states.
I think they have.
888 path to the electoral -- that he needs to get to 270.
And those are the two states that are gonna matter the most I think -- election we have Joseph Biden can campaigning someplace like Pennsylvania.
But things are things there are vibrating out there let's let's be clear -- -- Ronnie clearly has closed the race -- things have gotten closer.
But he's still I don't really think in the end Pennsylvania will come in if it does it's going to be a much bigger grin and then people think -- be like -- -- -- Romney loses Florida.
We're gonna see a much bigger Obama win than people think Pennsylvania's -- DC act going off the map that the and it's it's a big big Romney win.
Let me say one thing about that Pennsylvania Michigan are also going to be -- -- -- third party television -- One on one group -- associate with is joining in this barrages multi million -- tennis questions going to be is whether the Obama campaign.
Thinks -- states are solidly Michigan and Pennsylvania in their camp that they don't have to respond with TV ads.
Where -- they come in and responded to eastern states are there I think Joe's right this map is remarkably stable the numbers have changed.
But the states that are in play in the same but the numbers have changed we have now a 184.
Electoral College votes in the Obama column.
37 lean Obama for total to 21 we have a 180.
In the Romney column.
-- 26 -- Romney for 206 this is going to be a close election it's gonna center on those nine states.
With a 111 Electoral College votes and there's a path for victory for both candidates there but if you've got the momentum we saw the poll over the weekend in Ohio.
Did it and showing and the newspaper association poll showing a dead even race in Ohio when I was five points for Obama when -- last tested here a number weeks ago.
It shows the momentum is on Romney -- the question is does -- get enough momentum -- to push investors haven't.
Give me a quick answer about the impact of this storm hurricane sandy and what it means for this race.
-- could it mean -- mean I think it's freezing the race to me I think it's hard for either Romney or Obama.
To break through with it with -- We've we've that some new initiative.
While everybody's focused on on Sandy's so I think it's more that I don't think it's gonna affect turn out -- I think that it could does affect turnout because people in every area.
Particularly people are unable to sort of cope with it.
-- be less likely to turn out but let's see let's see when the storm hits one a passes and of people at times you sort of put themselves back together I think the other thing is it's gonna push the campaigning further west.
We'll see more appearances and Iowa Colorado and Nevada Wisconsin and maybe.
Western Ohio than we would have seen otherwise and fewer appearances in hit and Florida instantly and fewer appearances in place like Virginia and Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio.
The last thing quickly we have this iPad -- people can put in their maps.
And put him up against Joseph or Karl and this one is from someplace that may get affected Staten Island new York and it's from a class -- -- Burke class so Tom grill those class explain this quickly.
Well they we've got they've got.
Wisconsin Ohio two states we've been talking about didn't are probably gonna decide this thing it particularly if Romney can win wind.
Obama's got to block -- In one of those states if not both.
And so I fit in also I should say this class is.
Has had the distinction of having to write an essay.
At the end of each one of our segments on what -- on and I say -- so wanted to take it out because I thought not yet they're Smart they think it's got to down to the two states that we need.
-- -- last word on Tom grill those same -- -- class.
Thank goodness I didn't take -- -- after right after every you have to -- first of all every week and then write about the three of us I mean.
This -- one -- greater I think I think I think trivia and I are I need to go visit this class.
You'll have continuity it.
All right -- Karl here is next week the final predictions get ready.
Thank you gentlemen.