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'Undertow' presidential election in 2012?

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    Support for President Obama eroding?

  • Duration 5:29
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We are keeping and a close eye on the progress of the storm but we're also taking a look today at an interesting new political theory.

Suggesting that instead of a we've election.

On Tuesday we could see an undertow.

One week from today.

A wave election is what you see when a significant momentum for one candidate just keeps building and building and building.

But an undertow election would be the opposite a significant shift in the electorate.

And an erosion of support from the base and now some are questioning whether that could happen on Tuesday.

Larry's -- I was the director for the center for politics at the University of Virginia and Larry -- that an under in an undertow election.

The candidate is assuming -- that the base will turn out.

And winds up sorely disappointed that the -- doesn't show up to vote for him whether it's Obama's or Romney is are we likely to see that.

Do you think for -- candidate on Tuesday.

We're not likely to see it Megan but we're -- -- out and I've learned never to reject any theory a week out because it would be a failure of imagination on Tuesday potentially.

If there if if one of the candidates is likely to see that which one is it.

-- it would be Obama I don't think there's any question about that.

I agree with you by the way that the momentum theory is falling apart it's just not -- in the data at least I mean.

I'm data driven and -- to let that may be my problem or one of my problems.

But there's nothing in the data that suggests that -- the momentum that governor Romney had after October 3.

Is continuing to build.

And he's maintained.

Some of the momentum gains that he achieved.

But we're pretty much -- spaces here we got the candidates.

Very very close Romney's up a point I believe in that we -- real clear politics average.

I think you just have Scott Rasmussen on he has a Romney up to but.

-- -- by and large -- in the same place.

What's been amazing to me is that you know -- -- was all but left for dead prior to.

That first debate so he she change this election with that first debate he caught up to the president and now they're dead even in so many polls from President Obama then some.

-- -- he's ahead in some and even now the state of Ohio that's true which we hadn't seen Romney lead in Ohio at all in this race and now.

We see rations and putting him up to an Ohio and dead even and a couple of other polls.

So how does that play historically Larry when you had an election this close.

How does that play.

On Tuesdays at all -- ground game or -- all about those late decider to go into the bulletin polling box and decide who's.

And incumbent or -- challenger.

Well it's it's really all about both look on the late deciding.

Two things bag at first we don't have many coupled laughed -- I'm all I've wondered throughout the whole campaign how anybody could be undecided I think a lot of people feel that it's people don't like it sure is isn't it just today -- they -- -- -- decide when they actually see the names in the -- and appalling but -- I believe.

Yes that that's a lot of that you know I've -- some of them it when I questioned them about their views they're almost always fiscal conservatives.

And social issue libertarians and airport they feel like they don't fit neither party.

But they do have to make a choice even if the choices not to vote or to skip the presidential race and by the way.

No 11%.

Or so the people go into the polls and skip the presidential contest they vote for -- for congress or something but they don't vote for president.

How does -- storm likely to play and Larry in terms of under talent and not having the base turn out most of the folks affected by the storm.

On the East Coast not a lot of swing states affected by sandy.

But some I mean even Ohio's getting affected some extent North Carolina Virginia Pennsylvania -- I don't know that we're calling that a swing state.

I'm not calling -- New Hampshire may turn into one.

Look at New Hampshire would be included as well.

I don't know -- given them the damage reports I'm sitting mainly it's unfortunately -- -- New York import New Jersey I don't think the damage has been massive certainly not in Virginia.

It appears even in Northern Virginia.

And not necessarily in New Hampshire -- we're not looking at swing state sustained damage the question is.

-- does Obama look coming out of this -- On the one hand he's the incumbent he looks presidential.

He's dealing with an above the -- problem he's doing his day job that really is an ideal position for president.

On the other hand he's also going to be responsible for whatever the government doesn't do.

By the weekend that one can easily imagine people complaining about their -- not being on.

And other things not being done so you get the good with the bad if you're the incumbent if you're the challenger you benefit from the bad.

And then there was an article a real clear politics dot com this week talking about how people think people hope will hold that against the incumbent president.

If it's a rainy day when they go to vote Larry.

They did it -- -- -- dour -- and they blame and he -- the person who's in office so who knows you know I mean it's like.

Who knows all right thank you for being there.

-- what voters.

-- you never want voters to be in -- early mood when they go to the polls because they generally vote against incumbents if they're down while.

Wow all right thank you -- good to -- Larry.

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