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Former presidential candidate sizes up monster storm's potential impact on the election, the latest polls and more
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Right now the presidential race the election now one week away tonight.
A new Gallup poll giving us a look at early voting.
The poll showing governor Romney leading President Obama 52%.
To 45%.
Among voters who have already cast the ballots.
Former speaker of the house Newt Gingrich joined just sitting sir and you -- -- this -- Gallup poll.
Of early voters.
Well if it's accurate it's devastating for Obama.
Obama put a tremendous amount of effort into building a ground game they were very confident.
That they could turn their vote out early they talked about it was great.
I sense that achievement.
And -- this is actually correct.
It is a remarkable.
Result you know Republicans have been saying during all these very snapshots.
Well don't worry about early voting because Republican voters tend to be older -- love -- an Election Day.
And all of a sudden you know these numbers.
I'm really very surprised that -- frankly thought I would not have been all surprised to see it reversed and to -- -- be Obama 52.
Rummy 45 so this is a shocking number.
But it -- something -- -- you may have seen my late last week.
-- took all of their September questions.
191000.
People pretty big universe.
Looked at all of them together as one group.
And said the big surprise to them was that this electorate.
Looks much more Republican.
That is.
Republicans are much much more likely to vote Democrats are much less likely to vote they said this is closer to the 2000 -- electorate.
-- to 2008 electric.
That's based on a huge sample.
If that's accurate -- virtually every poll we've seen is wrong.
And probably favors.
Obama by three or four points more than he's gonna get because all those polls.
The pollsters -- in and AJ did the numbers to get back to a sample that they believed was accurate.
-- is arguing that in fact that's wrong.
You know we have seen a fundamental shift.
Towards an electorate that is much more Republican -- -- was four years ago.
You know -- -- -- -- this sort of a little bit.
Then just died she sort of there's no sparkling don't take risks and never right so guys -- actually -- I tended I tend to rely more on Gallup has -- been around for ever.
This is a big number 52 to 45 and it could they just -- gotten this one wrong.
Well they could have although this actually.
Conforms to rule where they claim they're seeing.
They came out a couple days guns -- -- -- was a police six points.
-- adopted.
Then you've heard me talk -- before the James Carville rule.
Carville told me many years ago.
That his standard was if you're the incumbent you've been -- people's living rooms for four years they know who you are you get the last poll.
And the last call for Obama's somewhere between 44 and 47 or 48%.
So this would imply.
-- you're seeing the Carville rule come into effect.
I decided about late last week in fact -- -- -- may have been on your show.
I just went for broke consider look I think it's going to be probably a six point voter more in favor -- Romney.
He'll probably be above 300 electoral votes and -- carry in a majority of the senate.
This number tonight would certainly fit.
That kind of a sweep.
Particularly because I think Republicans will vote slowly -- Election Day so that -- to tell me could be.
5446.
Maybe by the time he had to Election Day.
Well we actually did we have print -- what you said last week in case and needed it two -- up fast after election ASEAN after Election Day how close Iraq.
Opt in and terms of the this storm.
Does that do any thing Avant thanks Steve -- -- some tonight the stature gap that this would somehow.
You know that he was losing -- that and the stature gap and now this will make him appear.
More presidential the opportunity.
And I don't mean to demean you know the president of the storm -- all the lives lost but just a hard practical reality that Election Day is Tuesday.
Thought I died can't tell I I think this storm is so big the the damage is so widespread and so intense.
Bad.
No the president's gonna hold the president's doing his job he's doing what he should be doing.
On the other hand this storm is gonna -- some of his turn out of his supporters who are less enthusiastic.
And less likely to vote in bad weather and Romney so I think it's kind of a -- and -- You know -- something really bad happened and the federal system collapsed -- somewhere then he would get the blame.
He's actually he's doing the right thing but I think is politically correct for Chris Christie to thank him and say look the president is being helpful.
I suspect every governor -- everybody's paying attention but I don't think it helps -- much.
What about and Friday when the job support comes would love it's gonna go -- now on.
Or whether it's even gonna stay in the same.
He had any impact not just three or four days out from Tuesday.
-- we still have some impact the -- one way or the other but the the problem for Obama is.
Anytime they number gets a little bit better little -- -- turns out that's his people dropped out of the workforce.
And the last of -- was -- this last quarter every new job on balance was a government job.
I don't know of anybody who believes the economy's getting better I don't know of anybody who's confident about next year.
I I'm missing small businesses and out of Missouri for -- -- and I don't see anybody out the true in the small business owners who say boy I'm revved up.
I think you could have a dramatic recovery of Romney wins because there -- tremendous number of entrepreneur -- Leaned forward who'd like to do something if only they thought there's some sense of confidence so I think -- did nothing goes up again if it's eight point two.
Then I think it's a big problem for Obama.
How Ohio the ever important state there was an -- that -- -- campaign has put out which says that debt.
Obama's Chrysler deal undermined US workers that's it and that's a -- I'm GM onion and a GM's CEO came on he was said that the latest Romney auto ahead is politics at its cynical worse and this -- are gonna play out before the the voters in Ohio.
Your thoughts on this.
While I was yesterday I was in Hamilton -- -- Cincinnati's.
And then I was over eleven on Bush's war on counting and then over in Delaware counties are getting pretty good taste of southwestern Ohio.
Last time in 2008.
Obama carried Hamilton County by 27000.
Votes is traditionally Republican stronghold it is Rob Portman is based they're very very proud of him.
And the role he played in the debates.
And the Republicans there told me that they believe they're gonna Carrie Hamilton County.
By may be as much as 23000 votes that it be a swing of 50000.
Votes.
By itself that would virtually guarantee carrying Ohio.
People and in Lebanon war and -- very Republican tremendously enthusiastic.
They're gonna vote bigger than.
They voted -- last time for McCain.
And in Delaware County it was a very rural area that we were in.
I don't I couldn't find any Obama voters so.
Obama is going to be competitive he's gonna have Cleveland you have some areas around Dayton Toledo but I think Ohio is probably -- end up.
Both -- Josh -- out of the senate and being carried for Romney.
All of the energy development and eastern Ohio the natural gas the oil that's coming out in Camden.
Akron Youngstown.
And then down along the river valley and the war on coal which remember in southeastern Ohio along the river is a huge story.
All those things are coming together and I think Ohio almost certainly now go for Romney he has the momentum.
I also say that that would need to us -- talk in the auto thing.
When you realize that the Obama administration gave Chrysler.
To Fiat for zero dollars.
I mean you can imagine a businessman like Mitt Romney.
Turning over that much real property to a foreign company for zero dollars so I do think the longer you look at the auto bailout.
The less attractive it is in the more Romney's approach which was -- guarantee.
The loans -- -- was to guarantee the waivers after a traditional bankruptcy court exactly what United Airlines and a number of other companies have gone through.
That I think people you say you know that might have been a better road.
Yes except that's sort of the global -- is a step back and look at and what people might think and non swing states senate but when you talk about you know card -- auto jobs.
In Ohio I you know I give you unnecessary look at -- of the big pictures -- look like -- -- have a job or not.
By -- fact is is John casing the governor appointed today.
The next number of new jobs out of that bailout was 400 for the entire state all the other new jobs and in other areas.
And frankly -- of your GM worker.
Are you grateful to all while Marty things you've actually worked hard the last two years -- you're coming survived -- some point.
We're Obama claiming credit for your job the NC a little bit -- -- -- We've spent a lot of time that this network talking about it and frankly you know there have been a lot of remaining questions and then nobody -- sort of sat down from the administration -- -- -- set out what happily a little bits and pieces we've had some weird stories about videos event.
Made it's very -- incomplete picture other news organizations are particularly you have pursuing this comes we -- a few others.
I'm curious is Ben -- an issue that.
And that is one that is in it in any way related to bill over the will the voters have any interest in that.
It's enormous in terms election president talked to a senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin who said that every.
Victory senator he wants to on Saturday in Wisconsin people -- sent him tell me about been Ghazi.
The places I visited Ohio yes -- places have been to a Missouri today.
People have been asking about Ben Ghazi.
There is a rumor to go -- be -- it's a rumor.
That at least two networks have.
Emails from the national -- -- security advisors office telling a counter terrorist group to stand down that there were a group.
In real time trying to mobilize the Marines in the C 130s in the fighter aircraft.
And they were told explicitly by the White House stand down and do -- think this is not a terrorist action.
If that's true -- I've been told this by a fairly reliable US senator.
If that's true and and that comes out in the next hairdo.
-- I think it raises enormous questions about the president's role Tom -- on the national security advisors role.
The secretary of friends who Leon Panetta who is taking on his own shoulders.
That he said don't go.
And -- I think that's very dubious given that the president has said he issued instructions.
That there is supposed to do and -- they -- to secure American personnel now now which isn't -- -- is the secretary defense usurping the commander in chief.
Or in fact did Obama not issue that order I think I think you are gonna see his comeback tomorrow and the next day.
It was suspended for two days by the storm coverage which dominated everything but I think tomorrow as -- storm begins to receive you'll see even get as he can America.
The other big story is gonna break I think.
Is on corruption.
And extraordinary.
Waste in the solar power.
Good of grants in direct involvement by the Obama White House including the president.
In the solar power grants involving.
Billions of dollars and I suspect that's gonna break till Wednesday and Thursday of this week.
-- EO of the Ben does is strip I regret that it's coming out now because in a matter of the -- criticism that anyone who pursues its doing it for political reasons or whatever.
And and we did have four Americans -- and we do have inconsistent stories are different lines -- -- American people ought to be -- in the spammers figured you know find out what happened that seems like the right thing to do at least in my mind and and I think that when you have two different stories you should try to have you know pursue the government and and get the right story.
But it is you know it's unfortunate -- looped into this election time.
And and they get makes it almost bit -- unfortunate because I think we know I'd like to see what what happened like that like administration speak out about it.
You agree that it's -- timing how fortunate.
I think the timing is terrible and you have to say to yourself it's been over six weeks.
Why has the president states his national security advisor his secretary of state his secretary of friends -- Director of National Intelligence.
Why haven't they -- -- come clean with the American people and tell us the truth.
I think that this is not that hard all the documents have to be available this should be possible to sort it out.
Instead this has been frankly a cover up and you're right it's just -- that it's happened just before election.
But it has been over six weeks now and we can't get the facts out of this administration.
About an incident which is a pretty big deal for Americans killed.
Including an American ambassador an American facility -- town now turns at a may not have technically been a consulate that's the latest story today.
It may have been quoting a facility which has a different legal framing.
I mean this is a mess we apparently lost a number of secret documents we have no idea what those secret documents are.
There was no effort to help them we now know because of colonel big west -- excellent work.
That there were in fact Marines available -- 130 is available.
There were fighter aircraft available both in Turkey and in Sicily help could have gotten there in about an hour in terms of -- power and about two hours in terms of Marines.
The fight went on for almost seven hours.
The two seals were not killed until four -- 1 in the morning I mean this is really a terrible terrible situation.
Speaking -- mentioned bing west he's joining us in just a few moments and thank you for joining us to happy just before run for election night.
Look forward to a very much and thank you -- straight -- though.
