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-- -- doctor Michael Mann is with -- other big hockey stick in the climate -- dispatches from the front lines -- a member of the Pennsylvania State the university faculty directly Penn State birth.
Systems science center and co-founder and contributor to the award winning science website real climate dot org was their relationship is -- relationship doctor man between.
Hurricane sandy and the kind of changes your talking about and our presence on the planet is the is -- an indication.
Of what we have contributed to climate change.
We think it's important because a distinction here between the equipped consistently and -- the characteristic facility itself.
He hurricanes are gonna happen you know whether or not as we said before -- network you're not whether or not urgent solution to climate upon the planet's climate.
Win so we can't say for example that climate change.
Created lurking -- -- but there were some peculiar characteristics.
Of that hurricane.
Where it is meaningful to talk about the include the climate change might have had one thing.
We broke the record for cultural search.
-- related coastal surge on in a New York City.
Battery Park measured thirteen foot coastal surge to new record it'll record -- eleven feet and -- think.
He -- likely that part of the reason part of that thirteen feet.
With the one -- increase in sea level that we know what happened there as a result of warming of the planet.
So we have increased the probability of some these very large coastal -- associated with storms just because -- see localized.
Now there are there characteristics that she will be that -- Sure you're for one thing he is moved in the wrong direction most -- sort of curve out to see on the -- -- Out into the Atlantic this hurricane came up.
Through the Atlantic and -- curved off towards the content.
I'm and that's because of their characteristics of the jet -- and the way that the jet stream moves so storm now there's been quite attentive discussions.
In the scientific community over the last few -- about the relationship.
That this sort of peculiar pattern that we exceeded jet stream in right now -- increasingly seemed to jetstream takes a pattern.
I'm in the fall -- That's may be influenced by the relative.
A lack of sea ice in the Arctic associated with -- pretty substantial decline and isn't it does increase in the amount of melt -- Arctic sea -- that takes place during the summer so we keep seeing -- decline.
In sea ice that means that there.
Large amounts of exposed.
Arctic Ocean that persist through the fall.
And that opened Arctic Ocean is -- the Arctic atmosphere about that and he didn't actually is changing the characteristics of the jetstream.
-- some scientists who have studied these processes.
Think that that.
In that configuration of the jet stream that helped pull -- -- didn't he -- courts.
The continent towards.
New York and Pennsylvania.
And helped push all that water up against the coast line.
May have been aided by this unusual -- configurations that -- relate to Vietnam -- melting of -- in the Arctic.
Good time and Omaha Nebraska with the Michael -- go ahead Tom.
Thank you doctor I appreciate you -- -- my questions.
I'm wondering if there's any specific.
Model that you could refer to that -- a had a relatively high predictive value.
Telling us what the weather's going -- be like in the near term.
Sure -- -- the question.
So you know there -- or whether -- and on the European states have colleagues -- -- you know.
The the relative -- performance at different kinds of numerical weather forecasting models.
And then you have climate models which are.
Sort of like taking -- weather model.
And you run the weather model not just for days as we do with numerical weather forecast but you run it out for months and years and decades.
And on the longer time -- it turned that you can't just consider what yet the surest and you have to account for what -- -- doing that you have to counsel with the ice sheets are doing and -- you -- -- -- components together.
You get what is known -- -- all.
Now they're are these assessments to take place roughly every five years.
It's -- -- -- comparison.
Project in basically -- modeling groups.
That run these sorts of climate models and super computers around the world -- about twenty yourself groups and they basically compete.
They compare results with each other and to see how well the various models do reproducing certain features.
Of the actual climate we can sort of validate the models -- by looking at those comparisons.
Incidents it's sort of an ongoing process where we are we finding the models we have these.
Benchmarks that we compare them against.
And it turns out that there be do a lot of things remarkably well most of the models now which is something I couldn't said.
You why -- entered this field back in the early 1990s.
Tech and the speed of your climate models.
Couldn't even produce a realistic looking a new look we all know how important that -- -- -- -- for the climate.
So if you have a climate model but can't even produce nobody you know you might be a little bit skeptical about its you know -- -- in projecting future climate change.
No matter -- the models the street to be our models that are being run to a really good job in reproducing very realistic looking -- -- and as part of the reason.
That we do.
You know assess them as having quite a bit of predictive skills which we need to take seriously what they say.
We -- have a moment left -- we have a caller.
Which but when it cut -- -- now in -- recanted and want to know what we do to change things a supplier -- similar time here so let me if I can -- to the chase -- you know.
Can we do anything to change the course of events is that what you want -- now.
Well it's not just not be -- don't beg -- -- -- and the doctor.
I'm not completely sold on climate change -- -- -- -- -- -- my own research.
And -- You know I can find a lot of thought that that don't agree with that there's got an apartment I'm not -- -- it but I hear about guys big awkward bit.
We're only about sixty seconds you want to respond of that document that step on a thank you medical.
Sure you know appreciate the question and you know I'm sure the collar crime and asked the question and could -- weren't an honest question and yet you do when you go out on the Internet -- you can find all sorts of stuff from when someone that you can't really trust student you know attempt -- typical for a lot of people to know where you can go from reliable information.
I'm very going to be -- so called petitions that are supposedly signed by thousands of scientists who can test.
The existence of climate change and when you look into them indeed tell you find out that you know that.
This some of the signatories -- petition are The Spice Girls score you know a cast members of the TV show match.
And so really ended when you actually count the number of signatories that are actual scientists who are still alive and and have degrees in that field and published in the area.
They're very few of them so you know you have to look at.
What you know the US National Academy of Sciences like I said before it was founded by Republican president Abraham Lincoln nonpartisan.
It exists -- and -- -- about matters of policy.
That I have a scientific component -- -- informed by side and you know they are on record as saying look we should.
-- -- -- -- -- just around the world that look at this very closely -- -- -- holes there were big gaping hole.
He and you know the fact that we're warming planet and changing the climate it would have been.
Fairway or you're just at a time in my thank you -- -- for your time this evening thank you for -- and it was once again.
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