Power Play 10-31-2012
Carefully campaigning in storm's aftermath, Senate stakes and battle over battlegrounds. Join the live chat...
- Duration 26:00
- Date Oct 31, 2012
Carefully campaigning in storm's aftermath, Senate stakes and battle over battlegrounds. Join the live chat...
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When my -- stores down North Carolina the Coast Guard.
Going out to save the sinking ship.
They sent out a rescue -- around.
One of the the rescue swimmer so I'm Dan I understand.
You guys need -- ride.
And we're gonna box these things up in just a minute and put -- -- semi trucks and then we're gonna send them into.
Biggest New Jersey is.
And that is what it looks like when presidential candidates are campaigning.
But trying to look like they are not campaigning you saw President Obama there at the American Red Cross happening to think -- -- -- and North Carolina as it happened to be just to illustrate the heroism.
That has been displayed in the aftermath of hurricane sandy -- -- North Carolina and Mitt Romney who is -- a swing state of Ohio talking about canned goods for New Jersey.
This is power play and I am Chris Farrell.
Happy Halloween Internet we -- six days away from this -- good this presidential election.
The storm has.
Created something of -- polling blackout.
It has driven the candidates into distraction as they try to continue to press for any advantage in a very tight race.
But don't want to look like they're being insensitive to people who have suffered so much.
Lots of disruption especially in New Jersey in New York how will that affect the race we will talk about that you'll like doing that I suspect.
And even if you don't that's what's coming up anyway we will talk about the new stakes for the United States and it how things look as we go into the final stretch.
Here's a hint it's just about as confusing as the presidential so we'll be reading will be reading some.
Like chicken -- here.
And also hope we will talk about what.
That -- is the battleground map now.
Is Minnesota really a battleground map is Arizona really on the battleground map we'll have a -- Republican and a Smart Democrat here they will duke it out for you worse who tech killer viewing pleasure today we will also have some Halloween the PowerPoint we've got Charles.
I mean you're goodie bag is already full before we even get started Internet.
But no trick here are some treats.
And I'll stop making these funds starting now.
Are -- -- lets you know her from roll call you follow her act appropriately shared topless on Twitter.
And Bob Cusack he's the managing editor of the hill and you follow him -- Bob Cusack because -- like.
Are you guys have direct Twitter handles there is no confusion that we got rally you're not like K number three funky due to there was a lot of competition for your time right it was out there yes these -- all I had to like just ironic I had.
I had to -- out -- not you know as it is now.
Complicated and here's this other thing that we like about these two people they come from competing publications here on Capitol Hill both excellent but competing publications.
They come she's -- Steelers and he's an Eagles and jets jets jets jets jets -- yet never.
Whatever that -- it -- Doesn't like that -- this year that it doesn't even matter do.
Whatever aren't so -- -- stipulate that this does your -- a Steelers fan and that counts.
So here's the question.
Is going to New Jersey today he's going to be in New Jersey today.
But at some folks in the Philadelphia media market happened to notice.
That he would stare.
Paying a lot of attention to that region it would be okay with him Mitt Romney has -- more.
He's campaigning currently down in Florida.
And he's down there and he's got to say.
Vote for me vote for me vote for me but by the way our thoughts and prayers still go out to the dozens and that the dozens of people -- -- to the thousands without electricity.
So before we get to that impact on the polls and what we know about the election and let's start with future.
-- in in terms of this is this a watch.
Or has the president obtain any advantage or does it matter in terms of actual campaign.
It's just completely hard to determine completely -- -- I say yeah.
Impossible to serve and how -- ultimately affect -- did what comes out on Election Day I mean the president obviously is in New Jersey is meant to the Philadelphia media market I think that's notable because there's been some action in the state of Pennsylvania Nevada -- Yes exactly Republicans of trying to look like they're gonna make a play there and Democrats might respond in kind.
The Philadelphia media market is by far the most expensive in the state and one of the top five in the country in terms of price so is that it's convenient.
I'm saying in New Jersey IBC's -- -- right to be that it doesn't hurt.
-- right isn't but he's right he's -- -- acquaintance he's going to he's going to do a place that's closer.
To where some persuading voters and Michael Bloomberg even said you know down and said we're cool yeah I say is there any different risks work just standing is usually appreciate you go hang out with Chris Christie.
And it'll be like a Laurel and -- -- in Atlantic City today.
So Bob how about this the president who is.
Essentially tied with Mitt Romney nationally -- some swing state advantages.
But the tale of the tape says that going into the final six -- president is technically behind it's by less than a full point but he's.
He's behind and say yes that soothsayers of real clear politics.
When we look at that.
How much does it hurt him to lose time on early voting when we look at early and Ohio big parts of Ohio are still getting soaked.
From the aftermath of this hurricane Virginia.
New Hampshire how much is a day or two lost early voting really affect.
And I think it -- and a little -- helped by I think the images of being with Chris Christie and and that's the the story right now and Chris Christie of course the keynote speech at the Republican Convention just -- Obama during his speech but but obviously -- view repeatedly rather leave it to a lot of -- -- -- -- more about self and that's -- was criticized so.
I think it does and I do think that -- when you think about time time is so important right now on the fact that.
That Obama is not.
In the purple state is not -- -- purple state and you have Romney trying to lock down Florida I.
I think that's this is the last time he's been getting this Florida -- he's done is he's got to win Florida so he's just locking that down and -- other -- focusing on.
And there was in fact to -- fascinating -- from I believe the saint Pete times or TV station down there that showed.
In Florida Florida's two states at southern state in the north and its northern state of -- it's dissected -- I -- quarter were which essentially runs.
-- from Hillsborough County down in -- way.
All the way across to Cocoa Beach I guess is where it would go out but -- nobody's from beach.
But it's Orlando and the Tampa saint Pete area is the swing part of that swing state.
In a hole from a local TV station and they said showed Romney with the prohibitive lead among those voters so as Bob says.
If if this is not Romney's last trip to Florida.
He's lost the election because Florida -- has as many electoral votes.
As New York -- on that on the question.
The and I wrote today -- -- There it is you can have it not -- printed form I mean like if I could I would bring -- past but.
You can have a simply by following me at -- star walked on Twitter -- -- -- all you'll enjoy it it is free and worth the price.
But as I wrote today we now enter into -- -- -- game.
Because they're gonna let them they're allowed to hurricane passed through the effect on the electric passed through as people are away from their homes as people it it is disruptive -- -- distracting and all of those things.
We are now and the horror movie part of the election for us and it's the same for the campaigns because we're not sure -- -- we haven't churning electric and we're not sure what's going to be the case until we get past storm and we get into the weekend is that about right.
Yeah I'd say is that this is kind of a dead -- you know it every reporter Washington DC the Beers and gripping their -- and they found that the numbers are gonna come out it new anymore because they serve as a barometer every day and they drive so much of the coverage every single day and now we're basically.
Sitting there waiting to see what happens on Election Day and -- this turned out to be the October surprise that we don't know how it's gonna play.
Men and it's a and then.
And now Bob.
The question is this.
The poll pollsters have never had a -- you.
Might not war -- -- since since the Gallup organization.
Started blazing trails.
And that really -- basically we're talking about the 1948 election onward when we talk about the history of usual telephone national polling.
But I admit that it's never been worse yeah -- only do -- -- people giving up land lines and we don't know how many people have cell -- -- what the demography as of those people.
We also know that caller ID has made it a lot harder to get a hold of people because they see.
Lot of people -- and -- and they say no thank you we know that it's harder and harder to get completed interviews and in states like Ohio.
Think that this.
You may be from Ohio and -- -- you think about the misery of the poor people of Ohio every second of their day they are being bombarded with attack ads their mailbox is stuffed overflowing.
With attack mailers and their phone doesn't separate and now not only -- they get the pollsters.
But now they get the get out the vote calls from both campaigns and they get that did this eerie final phone calls them.
In terms of the polls what is your -- tell you -- we gonna see.
That the polls are accurate and predictive this year is this year that polling models break under the weight of all these check.
You know it has been -- tough here for for for pollsters as well as debate moderator so they have been.
Right in the middle the controversy.
I think he'll look back to 2010 which is the closest thing we have to that the most recent election com.
Is that you know.
Most people thought that the house was going to go Republican based on the -- yes but did they think that republic is gonna pick up 63 seats no no -- and -- -- for more like.
Fifty or maybe under fifty self.
That was now -- that was a wavy and as a Republican year right not a presidential and it was an intern yet but to be generally speaking I think we're gonna see.
The polls show it's a very close race a toss up.
And I think that's what we're gonna see any movie this is gonna be a late election night you know to designate them do it anyway and we let the other oil and you know -- a warning though is we can get online and an angry at the Fox News decision desk.
It is not dating like you're laying down okay we're not get your -- And I don't -- -- I don't wanna I -- -- anything but I remember one political note predicted that it would be between sixty and sixty seats I can't remember who that was -- twenty and it gets so confusing maybe it was my camp all right we're gonna take a quick break but when we come back we're gonna talk about the senate race.
Republicans once upon a time look like they had to lay -- shot.
To win the league win control of the senate at least narrowly now it looks like it's going to be a tough pull for them what's the composition of the senate -- -- be after Election Day.
We'll tell you when we come back -- stick around.
Is Todd a candidate congressman from Missouri Republican senate nominee from the show me state and Richard Murdoch.
Who is the treasurer of the state of Indiana and that State's Republican senate nominee and this is power plant once upon a time those two guys.
If not she wins -- -- for likely victories in those two states where they would pull that one that Republican controlled seat in Indiana and pick up one democratic controlled seat in Missouri now those are very open questions Aiken has trailed consistently they'll buy smaller -- says he said a colossal -- bone headed thing.
About rape and pregnancy and abortion and Murdoch who actually was guilty of in artful phrase saying.
Putting the wrong -- in the wrong place.
Modifying the wrong preposition.
In his case he has found himself going from what looked like a race -- his Wayne -- to a real dogfight.
In the Hoosier state so.
What is going to happen in the United States senate.
Let's ask our analysts.
The distinguished journalist share -- Cusack.
And troops are with you again.
Republicans -- -- yes now.
We should point this out Republicans need four seats plots.
-- -- these at 3 o'clock it's three RU three plus up Mitt Romney wins Republicans only need three seats and then Paul Ryan will.
The presidency of the senate and become the deciding vote and give them -- functional majority.
So three big -- once looked like.
That was -- -- be no problem so easy totally easier to Claire McCaskill was dead -- in Missouri absolutely Jon Tester out in Montana.
-- had retirements and Wisconsin and I just it Democrats were defending twelve Republicans were defending want them now.
Republicans have more to defend Scott Brown continues to be in a -- sawing battle up in Massachusetts -- every other day we'll tell you it's going one way or the other.
They're looking better in Nevada where they're trying to hold serve but Indiana is now very much in doubt.
What's that what's the final compositional.
Well I think it's going to be it's just like -- -- closer margin than it is this -- session of -- -- I think it.
Democrats might hold it with fifty -- it'll be really narrow whatever it is.
And by the way a lot of these members that were elected.
That we might get elected the -- -- -- the Democrats like Joseph Donnelly and Heidi I can't if they are elected and that means Democrats will hold an emergency and it they are very moderate to conservative to.
I guess we'll -- hanging out there and engine really interesting and yet they're going to be enough or -- senate cafeteria yeah that's that's that's for sure about what about that for the Republicans.
If Romney were to win the presidency.
Really if they can just get it up there they can get to 48 they can get to 49.
People like Joseph Manchin who by the way went berserk again on the EPA yesterday because can consult consolidation coal.
Pittsburgh they have no coincidence Pittsburgh based consolidation coal shut down another home on this one -- -- event in West Virginia laying off almost 200 people an explicitly blame you -- -- -- -- Totally crazy about this and is screaming about that.
For the Republicans if they can just get close they have a chance to move some legislation right biggest stated though the state of obamacare.
It's really -- and and having everything in house senate repealing don't do it at least at least some of it to most of you -- need sixty vote yeah exactly so.
That's it begins but -- but that is true I mean if you get to 49 if you get to meet you control the senate with fifty.
Then it's you still have to and you've got to have a Susan Collins and gyms and in support your budget Mitch McConnell said.
They will pass.
It's funny like Democrats -- that's going to be a tough task for McConnell -- he would like to have that but.
You know it is looking like it's -- it's it's that can really close some Republicans -- -- pick up.
A couple -- but they get to three did they get to four I mean it -- the odd thing here is that.
Democrats are playing in red states and some Republicans are playing in believes it's legitimate -- in Connecticut.
And then you know you have a target -- -- Sherrod Brown in an Ohio.
He's -- it's a -- -- now you know he was up but a lot of people thought by now he'd be dead in the water because a lot of the Republicans.
On the right and gracefully.
Corporate America has gone after -- around.
And they wanted -- here's what -- Tank says you'll have to make the decision before Disneyland closes for the day so when I get back to the hotel I can party or cry I hope you're having a good time -- -- down.
I had heard -- Disneyland here in California that really swing states -- you can you can do whatever you want it won't -- but you know what I say.
Party -- -- whatever you're doing out in Disneyland you should party because you know -- this.
Magical kingdom is that a magical kingdom yeah exactly I don't know I've been you know I -- And West Coast is on the West Coast of others probably great so mock tank enjoy yourself whatever whatever it is that you're doing.
-- it's a final word on the senate here's the deal how -- when we look at states.
And these are the key states to look at for this.
Connie Mack is not seem to be able to close the deal is report candidacy and Bill Nelson looks like he's gonna be okay Ohio you've seen some act.
Action for Josh -- -- Right it from there was a Romney.
Move in the end it might help them but in states like Indiana -- -- and also Virginia.
And Nevada what happens at the top of the ticket is gonna say an awful lot about what happens in the senate races is this not so sure -- Yeah I definitely think so more so than not you have some exceptions.
Ticket splitters in North Dakota again and I Heidi I -- -- -- -- -- -- like sixteen points ahead at Michigan sixty.
But in for the most part in -- states -- seeing this trend of more so this cycle than in the last several cycles that at the top of the ticket matters more of these races and this past.
Sure does in Virginia right where -- had.
Great where George Allen has underwhelmed some folks yes -- came his claim they're both former governor is they're both net they were both national figures and their parties -- time.
This is going to be this and there's not going to be a lot of ticket -- in Virginia do you think.
And it could be enough that I think it can't help came that I could see Romney winning Virginia and -- also -- conversing in Wisconsin I could see Obama winning Wisconsin but Tommy Thompson speaking out a victory there.
Those are two things that I -- he could see some tickets and I don't see a lot of people voting.
Voting for Allen and a -- I don't see -- And power play can safely say that all of the Obama Obama -- votes will be the result of voter confusion.
Unless unless maybe there's nobody in the Allen family that really -- a -- Republican.
Bob we thank you for your wise -- thank you for your help.
And here we know you just like saying Heidi Heidi campuses funding to say it is defending him but we thank you for being with -- -- -- you guys have a great Halloween.
When we come back how big is the battleground map -- -- We will tell you when we return so stick around.
But Barack Obama in the dominant position in this race we're ahead or tied in every single battleground state.
That means -- Mitt Romney has to win not only all the toss ups and also -- states where we have a clear lead.
In order to have any chance of winning the presidency.
Don't believe the polls you know need to.
That is Jim Messina.
He is the campaign manager for Barack Obama he's a guy who's running for president you may have heard of them and this is power play welcome back -- Democrats say.
-- -- Mitt Romney Philly.
You may say that you -- in contention in Pennsylvania.
And you may say that -- in contention in Minnesota but the race is unchanged and the president is ahead.
And all the places he needs to be ahead and Mitt -- search has fallen short and will not carry him forward.
Republicans counter and say.
The momentum remains on -- side and he's going to.
-- across not only places he has to win.
Like Florida and Virginia and Ohio were at the -- barring a very usual outcome Ohio.
But that is gonna get him one of the seven.
Traditionally Blue States or blue or states that he needs to win the presidency so whose right.
Now here to people that will disagree I suspect on this subject but -- do so in a fair minded patriotic matches and you know them both you like them both you know trade Harden is -- senior vice president of box global.
Which is probably not as menacing as it sounds as good and he is a Republican.
In very good standing as demonstrated by his.
Now ten divides time makes things more confusing if their -- a blue in there it's got Halloween is headed for the second debate.
It was a vote is blue.
Aren't exactly tell it's complicated but at we should point out as bad and -- that senior advisor to democratic campaigns going back to 2000.
Is a big deal and I believe it's from or not -- excrement.
I got I got knowledge I got stuff over here it's -- Wikipedia were -- OK so here's the question.
What are what is list for -- quiz time list for -- we'll start with you -- List for me.
What the real battleground states are the states that are seriously up for -- not the states that and you can leave Arizona often you can leave off North Carolina.
When we get down to the end what -- the states that are actually.
Contestant well first of all I think that if anyone is putting a state that is within right now on -- One or two points in a category they're trying to make news or look too Smart -- I think any state that where you have an average of the polls that has them within 1%.
Literally could go either way several talks about Ohio everyone talks about these states I mean Iowa any of.
And President Obama is because clearly -- -- Obama's aggregate average in Pennsylvania.
Looking at not -- it's just his average -- through unnecessary word is average lead in Ohio today 2.4 percent so that's not.
What you're talking.
Well I mean I think it's.
You've got the ones that are within one point the other ones who have been duly got -- -- -- -- three you can argue that all of them because of this is such a turnout election are in -- I mean you can't and I worked a lot of campaigns you know I've seen.
Campaigns were polling.
Is one way a week before and that last week and makes a huge difference I know it's cliche but I have never seen an election.
That is more going to be more impacted by turnout and the type of -- I mean is like phone banks.
Volunteer phone banks door to door I mean blocking exactly I think it's that type of an election down to the county and local.
Just made me more notice is that it's no -- I'm going to make some nice tree with a lot of you don't know those who would I think the programs -- Yeah that's wait a minute video -- don't know -- -- should question what -- less than Florida Virginia -- Ohio Ohio Iowa and Iowa Colorado Colorado Wisconsin with Scott.
That's -- yes.
You got no Michigan you know you got no PA.
Because it doesn't need to know I think I think even if you look at the numbers.
Right and again that the battle of the challenges around here right now still even the momentum -- his direction thank you for its hold him to -- -- its outlets that he can win with those to what's your last.
I think that's.
I agree with that in an hour delay in and listen I don't think north Carolina's -- -- really don't really is yeah I mean there's a PPP poll out that says it's a dead heat.
Closeup come here from the ground there as early -- very very good for Democrats extremely good.
I think at least they're going to be able to hold Romney there to the end and -- in the democratic book that's that's a victory.
That's a victory but but Republicans now it's.
When I see Bill Clinton going to Pennsylvania are going to -- Minnesota something different NIC Democrats going -- on air time in metro Philly to those states at least I mean.
I guess I should I get a.
Content type of weather for -- and very important guests.
When we had two campaigns there.
Operating and public funding with severe limitations of cash.
Moves like that would have had enormous consequences because we really -- lives and how much money spent.
We've -- limited amount of money functionally with -- billion dollar campaigns on both sides the fact that they would go up there on the campaign would go up.
Where they've already bought all the media they could possibly the high percent in the targets at its that they would go up in some states where they have a shot because there's a couple of good.
Those polls that makes sense for them to do it but does that does that put -- and play no it doesn't and the fact that Obama guys who -- him just means that a lot of resources to.
That's it gentlemen have a happy Halloween we thank you very much and that is very right.
Don't read too much into TV buys in this cycle because there's so much gosh darn money we're looking really at about three billion dollars being spent on the presidential that they may have to end up running ads.
In South Dakota just so that they can move the inventory check all their markup since it's 50% mark ups -- -- -- -- -- don't exactly hear guys -- god here comes WGBH.
All right guys thank you very much now.
It's Halloween so we have for you as spectacular talking points and here are power points sorry mr.
-- power points today.
Three election rules so which kind of election will argue or which kind of election -- your friends here's the first one the -- That is the one I'm probably most guilty -- and it's very annoying the county is constantly telling you what real clear politics as about every race every state.
Every poll all of the time and showing you his electoral maps stop it stop doing it I'm doing it to myself let people enjoy the party tonight and guess what we're so close to the election.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Have yourself a cup of cheer and some of those -- doesn't enjoy yourself.
And now we like to do every day a word from our friend Charles.
You could argue that it takes Libya off the front pages but then again it wasn't on the front pages in the first place.
Here's a mainstream media who spent.
Hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of articles.
Suppose -- outing of a CIA agent in the Bush Administration.
-- was she was safely ensconced in Washington and never in danger.
As an epidemic of it in curiosity about the murder of an ambassador.