Campaigns kick back into high gear in final days of race
Where does 2012 election stand?
- Duration 5:30
- Date Nov 1, 2012
Where does 2012 election stand?
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Here I'm John Scott five days left the pressure is on after taking a break for super storms sandy.
Both campaigns back in full swing now President Obama as you just saw what is in -- -- in Wisconsin right now but he'll be in three other states today.
Nevada and Colorado as well before heading to Ohio tonight vice president Joseph Biden is in Iowa First Lady Michelle Obama is in Florida.
Meanwhile governor Romney is in Virginia his running mate congressman Paul Ryan is making the rounds in Colorado and Nevada.
His wife and Romney is campaigning in Ohio and his son tag Romney is in Pennsylvania.
Fox News has a brand new national poll that shows the Obama Biden ticket tied with the Romney Ryan ticket at 46%.
Among likely voters.
The latest real clear politics national polling average also shows a -- 47 point four each.
Let's go to the man with his crystal ball Larry 70 director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia so Larry gaze into that crystal ball and tell.
Yeah the popular vote is very very close and the Electoral College vote is certainly not -- to be a landslide for either of these candidates.
We -- -- we -- working on the final projection.
There's no question that in our minds at least that Obama is closer to 270.
They and governor Romney.
But there are a lot of these swing states the very same ones we've been watching for this year you and I've been talking all year.
About these same states and they are still on the edge of the butter knife.
There in the bubble.
I watch where the candidates go they are not going to go to any state.
That is not very close where a visit wouldn't make a little bit of difference -- difference.
They are going to Wear the real battlegrounds are regardless of what you've read about this state coming in -- that state coming in.
Watch what the candidates do.
Not what the operative say.
That's why I find it fascinating that the president is in Wisconsin right now Wisconsin hasn't voted Republicans since what 1980.
Yeah but but we're a 1984 and they voted Republican in in president Reagan's reelection but remember Democrats only one John by about 5000 votes I think it was in both.
Of the close elections of 2000.
So this can be a very competitive state Governor Walker proved that twice in his original election -- the recall election.
And then you have Paul Ryan on the ticket.
So there are a lot of reasons to include Wisconsin as we do in a list of total toss ups.
North Carolina the president seems to have given up on winning North Carolina.
Yes then they should have given up on a long time ago but I guess they wanted to make the Romney people spend money there but.
Yes we we've had we've never had North Carolina for a year.
-- the Republican column and sure enough that's where it's gonna be on Tuesday OK so we've got essentially a tied presidential race as it stands right now.
Everybody's wondering about a blizzard of numbers to come John a blizzard of numbers -- but -- -- everybody's wondering about control of the US senate how do you see Atlantic.
Well but if governor Romney ends up winning the presidential contest by several points Republicans could still managed to pull it out.
But on on today and we've got -- -- -- crystal ball today we think it's leading to the Democrats.
The house securely in Republican hands -- -- like the senate.
Is going to stay in democratic control at least by cedar too.
-- question that's been on my mind and I think you're probably the best person positions to answer it but it's about the effects on the election.
Of this storm we've just seen clearly you know come Tuesday.
They're going to be a lot of people millions of people in big Blue States new York New Jersey among them.
Who are just not going to be able to get to the polls are just not gonna be feeling like voting I mean.
Who gets hurt most by by the impact of this storm does it hurt President Obama more proportional.
Well it's bound to affect his popular vote because.
These are deeply blue areas you're absolutely right.
And you know human nature being what it is and who can blame anybody and -- -- get me wrong everyone should always vote I agree they should find a way to do it.
And the states have to help them be get that to polling places and all the rest of that but human nature being what it is if you lost your house or you've been displaced.
I don't think voting is going to be in the top ten things that you absolutely have to do.
Between now and Tuesday.
So I would think this would -- to some degree the popular vote that Obama would get in new York -- New Jersey it's not gonna change them to read.
But it would affect the national popular vote totals but no effect.
Essentially on the net Electoral College -- I don't I don't think so I was really looking to see whether this store was gonna affect Northern Virginia Virginia's a swing state.
Northern Virginia's heavily democratic if the storm had depress the vote Northern Virginia.
I think that would have been enough to tip the state to -- but it really did happen Virginia was not badly affected by the storm.
Well Virginia is one of those states that both candidates are fighting over it's going to be fascinating to see where the numbers come down on Tuesday.
Larry 70 at the University of Virginia thank you.