Power Play 11/1/2012
What the candidates' trips say about the race, third party politics and Coal War
- Duration 26:55
- Date Nov 1, 2012
What the candidates' trips say about the race, third party politics and Coal War
Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
And that was what it looked like as President Obama headed out of the place where he lives.
To go to Wisconsin.
-- state that used to be eight and has been for quite awhile I solid -- -- part of the blue wall.
That has helped Democrats to presidential wins and there you see -- doing that -- And in Roanoke Virginia.
A state that is was bright red and Republican -- for three generations are so that now is very much in the tossup category.
This power play I -- Chris tire wall.
And Internet I have.
Days five days that's all five days.
I think we can make it I think that we will probably get there if I break down along the way just throw some cold water on my face and will be fine.
But the truth -- is that we know that is the clock ticks down to the days get shorter -- -- days get shorter for these campaigns.
All the -- and puff about where the battleground is and where everything else says will evaporate because they're only gonna spend their time and they're only gonna spend their resources.
In the states that they think -- really implied.
So we will talk about today we'll talk about what the map is mother travels tell us.
Good news for you also judgment Alitalia will be with us today and we will give you what you have been screaming four or some of you.
I've been screaming for for many months which is the -- the magic words will be uttered.
We will in fact talk about the libertarians bid.
And his strange play for just 5% of the -- is not a win but he just wants to get to 5% of the vote.
The judge has a column on that today we'll talk about that we will talk about something that you know I like to talk about.
Which is freedom fuel coal America's leading energy source we will talk about that and how the politics of that.
Are playing out -- one congressional district and perhaps for the whole election we'll have power points it would be great you will be just tickled pink Internet I can't even believe it.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- Because Bill -- Is with us I know you like that.
Bill who is the helmsman of the weekly standard and as we always say despite the urgings of Steve -- and Fred Barnes -- -- a gracious enough to join us what.
-- happy to hear -- all right so are.
-- joke today was that these poll numbers.
I've got to be boosting -- sales in Chicago and Boston alike because.
You can preach it -- -- you can preach it flat there's leave for the president in key swing states a lot of polls.
The national race is just about deadlock Gerson says the latest Fox News poll what is the what is your.
Assessment I think either side could win obviously.
And I think they both think that I mean this is as you pointed out.
Were talking and indeed the fact is both of them are are going to states for all the talk we've got several prominent teams and we've got -- locked up for the Obama team saying we got Nevada locked up they don't otherwise they wouldn't be going there right.
They're straight strikes and there are you know several states in play now I guess there -- trying to lock up there.
They're the states that are leading today and they go to the shore.
So to speak a swing states over the weekend.
But I think is more -- I mean I wouldn't be that surprised if Obama won by a couple points over this question from the woman.
We -- four points I don't really buy it says strikes hit -- still some fluidity in the polls so much depends on the turnout model.
You assume for -- yeah and that is such you know then that's very hard to tell a weekend don't go ahead of time when the electric is going to be at 200420082000.
Something it was something guys observed -- and further than which.
Even people who read the weekly standard for you this.
But the something I didn't even have it just follow me -- -- firewall that something I observed today.
Is this and and shoot data points -- three networks -- is Mitt Romney's favorability.
Never collapsed there was he has enjoyed a steady rise in in -- -- you know Internet is basic.
Acceptance as a human being I find this person acceptable.
Mitt Romney is ended up tied with the president which is pretty remarkable given how much negative advertisements.
Gone against him.
Also we see that independence continue to go for Mitt Romney so that in a tight race -- 16% of independents still undecided.
If -- can capture the majority of them in the closing days.
That can take him out ahead but the biggest and most surprising -- -- -- it was in Q.
The pew research this Q whatever very fancy they -- -- in Phoenix and what we call -- Q.
The Pew Research Center says this.
Barack Obama led John McCain in early voting.
52 to 34.
And Democrats had told us for a long time that we we're gonna see not maybe that same margin but that.
The early vote was going to be what took Obama over the top this election maybe Democrats -- they lose an election -- but we're gonna win the election thanks early voting.
And the latest -- -- says that Romney leads by eight points fifty to 42 what are we make of that.
It's our zone of pushing this really break it by states -- states do more early voting that didn't invest today what I'm told by people who look at these numbers pretty carefully and I think pretty honestly it's.
Colorado looks good for -- it's a very it's a heavily eroded by the state I think two thirds of Colorado -- you voted.
And that looks like a Romney state now you remember the original Karl Rove formulation which replicates it -- it.
The states that McCain knew that -- that Obama took from Republicans 2008 which ones do.
This probably have to get back 72 gets Indiana back.
-- thinks that -- you -- North Carolina back Florida was the third.
Until the early -- -- a little Dicey but people still think that's -- -- runs in his ministry that is Ohio Virginia let's not let the -- sure.
Biggest swing states and then he needed one war.
I think Colorado was the one more that's not an important -- that means that I now believe that if Romney wins Ohio and Virginia yeah it's -- presidency.
Now if the good news for Obama's youngest -- one of us.
Have had to get the bad news for Christmas that he pretty much just when both you can rights areas of Wisconsin that.
But if you look I don't know you know to give people -- doing.
Detroit over to the -- momentum and now they're doing over doing -- -- -- we have what 34 national also tied Fox's side ABC -- -- this time she was tied.
And -- plus -- actually Romney a couple others plus workers -- Obama.
I'm not so sure that this -- that they get Obama come back and here's one thing I've noticed in past elections so if you have any.
-- -- -- -- Says you like the primary trend and made the major trends in October from the game right -- does -- get a ten days after a little bit of a reversal a little bit of bear market rally put it to the other guy.
A little bit of some people soon we'll look back hedge -- -- exactly but you get a little bit about sort of bear market rally so to speak for the guy who was losing -- -- -- but usually the primary trend.
-- -- itself in the last 45 days so the question is to put it simply is it to -- to Rodney -- and now having a slight drift down.
By Romney at a slight movement up by Obama to continue for the next 45 days or to grumpy little bit of -- drift down but then the primary -- reassert itself.
And you know we don't know maybe we'll know more -- -- we'll -- on Sunday went on Monday but by the sitting here Monday nothing that happened on Monday it's.
And on an annual left much more important gas you know may be leaving gets Steve -- to show up yeah possible he had been hit its high age and hi Chris you know we do we do in bad weather is that we see that there's a -- -- and I -- she expected to -- ladies -- -- that was -- anyway that's shorter than.
And every single kind of have more recess Monday but it wouldn't be so -- that much of reverend have proposed -- Plus or minus one on Monday so this -- -- what we won't know until Election Day.
And people shouldn't that be to assume that everything's going to be incredibly tight could be an Election -- -- could also be that you get a break that's not being seen by the -- -- -- so much depends.
This isn't pollsters cheating -- posters being stupid it just it is hard to know exactly who's going to vote you have to.
You know what's only 60% from a sinking of the eligible adults vote.
About 80% of the registered voters maybe it's 85% to present for your vote so how do you when you polish voters you can ask people are you likely to vote.
That you and I've done this that a -- of these things innocence and he exited people say yeah I'm gonna vote.
How do you believe I'd like -- did you vote last time limit in October 2 that you know -- pull it.
Gallup which has the type to screen says you know where your polling places yeah and Gallup has the -- is likely voter screen and is the best Romney.
So it really depends who turns out and I think.
Range therefore is between is is you know we could have a very very very very close election Election -- we could have victory Victor raiser.
Aside -- the -- near Obama budget two -- three points McChrystal he knows.
A lot of things and renders them in insightful fashion we thank you very much and we know that you are able to endure the storm of the next five days.
Here's one data point for you Internet to take with you in Arlington and Fairfax counties which are Northern Virginia counties that were key to president Obama's success.
The early vote.
More -- for the president in those few caddies down 20% in Arlington county and 21%.
Higher at one of those Fairfax orders -- I would what -- say whoever for a right of privacy of the -- -- I didn't vote early and verify what we'll talk about who -- probably go to for Gary Johnson in the next segment when we come back.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- And that is libertarian presidential nominee and former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson and asking for not a win.
Of the vote.
And this is power -- other reason Gary Johnson wants 5% of the vote is because of the way that election regulations work in the United States and federal funding works.
Being get -- 5% libertarians get to 5% and anyone election that means they get free money.
That means that that little box that you check on your tax returns -- is like -- -- dollar to the presidential fund.
Some of that money would go to the libertarians just as happened for the reform party after Ross perot's success.
And it would give them 80.
At least in the door.
To those public funds.
And it would also create ballot access issues so libertarians say look and -- and if you're going to not if if you're going to waste your vote wasted in a way that changes the system.
Going forward it's complicated but -- people are pretty upset about the way things are maybe it will work.
And let me tell you something -- an -- -- you know an iconoclast is.
I hope you do because you're about to hear from one.
And that iconic plastic dress is judge Andrew Napolitano the Fox News channel's senior judicial analyst.
And the judge I think when I think of iconoclast state.
You're the one you are never afraid to tear down.
These sacred cows the the idols of the conventional wisdom.
And you did again in your column today welcome back to the big show.
It's a pleasure being aircraft you never cease to flatter me with these wonderful introductions.
Thanks well it its gives -- personal iconoclast reporting for duty.
This is what we need we need more iconoclast the in the discussion of politics because we have too many people that defend it.
Sacred cows right away -- what you did today in your column that you can read about these dot com or The Washington Times -- you did today was say okay.
If -- libertarian.
You don't like either of your major party options you have.
Bigger government you have your big government and bigger government right as your choices Mary and then and then tell us did walk us through you rationales here.
Well -- -- really have basically four choices and 48 states those of the 48 states in which Gary -- -- about your choice between big government Mitt Romney.
Dangerous government Barack Obama.
Vastly smaller government that stays within the confines of the constitution Gary Johnson are not voting.
So my piece this morning Chris and I'm flattered that you're here having me to chat about it.
Basically makes the argument that as long as you vote your conscience it is not a wasted vote your vote is yours.
To cast as you see fit -- as long as it's consistent with what you truly believe.
It's not a waste now as a practical matter Gary Johnson's not going to -- he's not gonna get a majority of the popular vote or majority.
Of the electoral vote.
But if he does get that 5% it will send a substantial message to the Republican Party guys have to stand for something.
Something reminiscent of when you used to be the small government party that relied on the State's true.
Row the -- of governmental services in the federal government to address truly federal issues.
I've also stated in there that I fully understand the argument of many of our friends Chris.
Who -- believe that anything any person but Barack Obama.
Currently on the ballot would be an improvement.
And at least with respect -- his understanding of the free market clearly governor Romney would be a vast improvement.
Over the president.
He still lying to borrow money -- still willing in my view to spend -- too much money still willing in my view.
To engage in nation building in the Middle East which has been a dismal failure.
Tremendous loss of human life and tremendous loss of cash.
But he certainly.
Would be an improvement over a president whose every impulse every impulse.
Is either towards say a Marxist version of egalitarian as -- Or 28 in big government version that looks at the constitution does does -- or guideline.
Rather than the law of the land.
So here's the I'm glad he wrote about this because our viewers and our chatters and all of that stuff.
And talked about this a long time.
And they discuss this and this is an issue that has really for constitutionally minded folks as as.
Been difficult for them -- people have struggled with this here is what some of them say.
-- only if you are voting for Obama or Romney and expect -- and expecting different results that.
Is the definition of insanity says is the last to know.
Nineteen good name -- now.
And mock tank who is back in very fine form despite being on vacation our the loyal -- tank says this.
I thought that libertarians you not think that anyone should get government money.
Not voting for Romney is voting for Obama what about Gary Johnson's argument there and libertarians argue at this time which is just give -- to 5% and then we get free money -- -- -- -- It is a a bit of irony.
That libertarians who are generally against the idea of the government funding.
Election campaigns are now seeking this a pilot -- to huge pile of cash -- I know it's a hundred million dollars now that's not nearly enough to get elected president.
But in in 2008 George W.
Bush but the -- in 2004 George W.
Bush -- the incumbent.
Only had to spend 300 million so it's a it's a huge.
A huge step that would give.
Gary Johnson or a successor.
Instant credibility instant name recognition and instant ballot access but.
It goes against the grain and and -- emailers -- I share -- view of your email that constitution does not authorize the federal government.
To pay for election campaigns therefore it may not constitutionally or lawfully do so and anyone who truly believes that the constitution means what it says.
Wouldn't take a nickel from the federal government.
I -- it OK so the when we get down -- to who.
A race as close as this when we get down to where we're talking about a tie the latest Fox News poll has an outright top.
Right in between these two options.
Is the -- regardless.
You know we have chatters here we're talking about you have to vote for the person you think it's best for the job whether that person's going to win or not.
But in a more you know election -- -- market to.
And votes represented.
The currency of that market for him.
If the vote again in the in the swing state.
A conservative who votes for Gary Johnson is voting.
For Barack Obama that well yes and no I I live in New Jersey so I have the luxury of knowing that my vote doesn't count.
That's right whichever one of -- the three of them -- vote for.
But right now governor Romney is leading in Colorado.
By about three to four percentage points and -- is within the margin -- who knows where it is governor Johnson is polling about.
5% in Colorado.
Four out of five of those 5%.
Have identified themselves as Democrats or people who voted for Barack Obama.
2008 -- each other issues unique to Colorado the overriding one is whether or not.
A personal amounts of marijuana -- used in the privacy of the home can be legalized Gary Johnson.
Supports that he's probably if that numbers come out the way they look this morning.
When it taken up votes from Barack Obama to give the state to.
Mitt Romney so it doesn't always work that conservatives who.
Vote for the libertarian are helping the Democrat however.
If this were Ohio.
It would be a different story if it were.
-- -- channel residing in Ohio it would be a different story because you're talking about history if -- and Ohio voter you're not talking about principle.
So what you're saying as I am sifting through.
On your decision and they the decision you've rendered from the bench here as -- that the voters obligation.
Is situation all depending on the state in which they reside is that's.
Know of voters temptations will be -- Opponents obligations.
Her -- his morals and values they should always come first from -- iconoclast.
Until another battle.
Did -- and -- I hope very sincerely that you and yours there in the garden state.
Get back two electricity.
And to safety and to some tranquility -- Thank you Chris CNBC next week.
CNBC next week we'll see what we have -- -- an election complete.
-- -- hopefully fingers crossed okay Internet we've got to take a quick break but when we come back what about coal.
Whether it's -- site late night by two minutes whatever your preferred flavor of that most abundant energy resource here in this nation.
It's shaping up to be a big deal.
Not coincidentally because -- have -- be a lot of it.
In Pennsylvania and Ohio and there's actually a good bit in Colorado to so the politics of -- continue to be consequential and not just -- show hosts who happen to be from West Virginia we're gonna talk about that.
When we come back.
So stick around.
So if somebody wants to -- local power plant they -- it's just that we're going bankrupt the Obama campaign promise and Pennsylvania.
-- energy plan is different.
And by the way I like cold people in the coal industry feel like it's getting crushed by your policies.
Is -- new -- from Willard Mitt Romney he's the Republican running for president.
That is airing in heavy rotation now.
In Western Pennsylvania.
Which happens to DE.
Home to one out -- if not well.
Now I tonnage but by but -- dollars America's largest coal producer that's consolidation coal Consol Energy.
Based out of Pittsburgh lot of coal mining in western PA and it's a part of what is -- traditionally democratic state that has been getting increasingly red.
Over the years and Republicans see a lot of opportunities in that part of the state to maybe pull off an upset or two and it was certainly key to Republican hopes in 2010.
So this is power play so what about southwestern Pennsylvania what about the people down there the in in user -- What about them.
Well why don't you meet -- -- us.
He would like to represent those people in the twelfth district of Pennsylvania that's down in the Johns town.
Greens -- metro area.
-- in that corner of the state that is lucky enough to be next West Virginia.
rob this is running against incumbent Democrat Mark Critz.
Who succeeded his old boss and you remember him -- I know Internet John Murtha.
Who took more pork back to that district than anybody else -- ever imagined doing mr.
-- welcome to the show.
-- -- -- -- -- Alright okay so did you guys get at least now.
I'm gonna let America know in the eastern part of the district is in the district expects the costs.
West Pennsylvania includes -- northern Pittsburgh suburb of our Kabila idol lying in beaver county and Lawrence.
Good Northfield of Pittsburgh and Westmoreland county and then into -- It felt that if -- -- said we didn't -- those snow up there at Somerset.
That is quite a snake -- -- district that you have there to go from north for the north hills down all the way to basically the Maryland border.
That that is a tough one.
But there in my -- And tapped it district -- because that's America's energy task is obviously I -- it I think America -- feel we have coal.
-- oil nuclear technology truly is nowhere else in the country you have that combination -- -- energy act as we have.
And the president unfortunately -- an attempt at taking one of those that have stopwatch.
And if -- if you guys could find a way to -- who -- -- she would have at all now the question is this.
VA York district runs through not just this energy field that you're talking about but these counties in suburban Pittsburgh.
That have switched from blue to red and are increasingly red.
It's a place that.
Republicans think could be the harbinger.
But at the same time.
What tends to happen is is that the same economic conditions that create opportunity for Republicans.
Also are driving down the population and some of these parts.
Is this a race for Republicans.
Against the clock against the population in some parts of western yet.
There -- -- EU membership in the as the population and get it done on what the president spent -- don't forget.
That the president talked about people living in Pennsylvania clinging to their guns and their religion a complete.
It's being -- for the people here kind of values they have.
And I find myself in a congressional race -- -- -- -- guy who pretends to be you know supportive of the coal industry but then I'm here he supports the president.
You cannot be pro Obama.
And -- call it that simple as that.
And then you see him you know my voting against things like he'd be awful worth about -- reduction.
Act that greatly red tape reduction of small business job creation act which would have stopped the war on Poland and -- It's -- that was evil and against that of the aircraft.
And shutting down.
Palin to -- -- and you know can't both get enough -- 145 -- they're -- at at the end of December it Mary Smith President Obama and congressman Chris.
-- got a lump of coal are stocking.
It -- really.
This is the one promised that President Obama -- -- when he said that he would it'll shut down and and bankrupt -- -- -- top.
office we've got to it.
That that's got to be -- where the Internet is -- -- time we thank you very much for making time for us today good luck out there.
Well thank you Keith dropped the outcome of the web site thanks for having us.
Good and the invitation of course and it remains open for congressman Chris come on and talk about his views on the subject.
-- we we we stand here with open arms.
And OK so we have open arms also for Laura Ingle who is up next and filling in for Jonathan Hunt on the hunt.
So you like that that's good.
You like the fact that we're going to be back with you tomorrow but you know what -- like.
-- like how it's I know you do you've come to dig them and I appreciate all your good chats on these so here are your days.
-- -- -- Homemade vs store bought.
This is a big question in -- -- race.
Is better the democratic base where the Republican base that we have to fight we have two political bases we have a country 40% or so -- either side.
They're both quite determined to see their man elected on Tuesday.
So which base is better.
So you have in the Obama -- the deluxe model you have the absolute Cadillac plan.
They have spent all these years and all this money organizing organizing organizing.
But as we talked about before.
And don't forget about this.
Early voting is the best metric that we have to determine.
How fired up one base -- the other -- is everybody -- early voting these are not undecided voters he's ready to persuade the voters.
These are people who are partisan and this is simply an expression of their absolute determination to vote for Mitt Romney to be leading and that measures says that the Cadillac plan.
That the president has been rolling out for is fire -- the -- and roll out the voters had a couple of holes and -- So there are certainly questions about that and a -- race here's your third point.
Don't forget about the Tea Party.
We haven't talked about the Tea Party much because it got cliche and it got mystifying that it was confusing but basically what we're talking about here -- libertarian minded independent minded conservatives.
Who swarmed into the electorate in 2010 and did that well guess what those people didn't -- they're still voting.
And when you see Mitt Romney.
Ahead at an early voting and when you see the intensity on the Republican side this is a reflection that these folks are still there they may not be going out and wearing -- costumes and doing all of those things but the -- is still there it's been -- inside the apparatus of the Republican Party and that.
Is why Mitt Romney's momentum is there that's why his -- support is there it's because of that organic enthusiasm underneath we will find out whether store bought or homemade is better.
Can we get to Tuesday and until then we will keep you update with all the latest.
As we like to do every day we want to leave you with the word from our friend Charles.
It's the -- -- mustache promise has doubled my intensity.
I'm gonna go out there and vote twice on election.