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Well five days ago in the polls have tightened and the analysts seem in agreement.
This is a very close election right now.
So -- got our attention when we saw a new analysis suggesting that governor Romney could actually see a landslide win in the thanks so what's being called a quote -- -- votes that may not be showing up in most polls American.
It's based -- par and an NPR poll suggesting the president's team is behind -- governor Romney when it comes to independent voters.
By twelve points.
And a CBS New York Times poll that reflects the exact same numbers a deficit for the president significant long when it comes to independent voters.
How does this work.
Michael Barone senior political analyst with the Washington examiner in a Fox News contributor Michael welcome good to see you so.
That that and I guess the theory is that Republicans and Democrats are gonna be split our round about even and the independents to make the difference in Romney's winning winning with them.
That's the theory that Republican you know -- -- 2008 Democrat Democratic Party identifiers people who said we're Democrats.
Outnumbered Republicans idea about 39 to 32 points in 2004 party identification was even -- -- from the exit poll data.
In both those years and if the parties terror but even in not strength as they were 2004 and again in the 2010 off year elections.
Then independents are gonna swing at because party identifiers these days are pretty strong partisans you're getting ninety plus percentage of Democrats for -- for Obama ninety plus percentage of Republicans voting for.
Mitt Romney so.
Consequently if independents are going twelve points one way we're gonna see something other than -- 1% race in the presidential but contest.
If that's true then why don't we see bigger numbers for Mitt Romney in states like Ohio and you know I -- -- and these other critical states that may be required for him to win.
Well we've been seeing for example in Ohio while Romney has been leading among independents in most polls.
But a lot of those statewide polls have been getting electorates that -- in party identification terps are actually more democratic than 2008.
That seems counter intuitive but those -- the results they're getting.
I think there may be some system -- systemic problem with the polls make it.
The polls were -- theory -- practice were developed in a nation which had universal landline telephones and a population that answered the phone and we don't live in such a nation anymore about a third of Americans so according to government statistics now.
Our cell phone only households that's a big change the pollsters are trying to.
Accommodate that and trying to reach cell phone only households but they have difficulty doing so it's expensive.
And the -- he may be to cut corners and to have a loose screen.
In some of these statewide polls that is to say.
Don't try and cut down the number of responses you count is likely voters they ask pretty simple questions that are -- -- almost all registered voters to fall into the likely voter sample.
You when you read the articles Michael -- what I take -- from them is there's a frustration on both sides because.
Republicans and Democrats who normally say they know by this point meal in the election who's gonna win say they don't know.
And that of course is no way of knowing for sure but it seems that most most of them said back at this time -- oh wait they -- knew John McCain was gonna lose.
And they don't know what's gonna happen this time is that is that how it's shaping up right now.
Well I think that's a realistic view for voters to take given the data that we have given the evidence we have the President Obama if he wins will not win by its larger margin as he won by in 2008.
There's plenty of evidence.
Of that going around and almost no evidence suggesting he might get a bigger march and so.
Consequently that's an intelligent conclusion for voters to come to.
We don't know question of the question is what kind of motivation is that going to be most of the polling questions that are used to -- it would.
Gauge the degree of enthusiasm of voters suggest that Republican voters and Romney supporters.
Are considerably more enthusiastic pumped up and eager to vote then Democrats half and enthusiasm could be McCain come -- Michael C Tuesday.
Thanks a lot race.
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