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Jobless claims: the last variable before the election

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    Julie Roginsky and Jim Pinkerton discuss early voting, unemployment and polls

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-- last very able to comment before the election the unemployment numbers here at we have actually would Hinske it's former corporate communications director and Fox News contributor welcome Julie and you Jim Pinkerton still sticking around add to talk about via -- a panel here.

-- would you comment up first of all.

Julie I wanted to come and what Doug is talking about there -- numbers this sort of early voting numbers are down by a significant number.

Four counties that voted for President -- right that's.

Those counties coincidentally I think our cameras or hit by the hurricane Northern Virginia and I think that believing correctly from right in this that early voting was -- suspended for a few days okay.

By the governor Virginia I'm not sure about that great but I believe there are a lot of early voters voted so this is -- of themselves by not being able to get out there so you're right I mean in the sense that this cuts in on the Obama.

Operations.

Desire to get as many of their supporters the polls as possible.

It's an ominous sign.

Do we see that -- -- -- this weekend in the sense that people are more ready willing to be able to leave their house because the weather's getting better.

To -- -- -- vote we'll see the science is not something that not Obama administration had a contingency plan forward and exactly that I think that's true.

Rickie Weeks Jim what do you think about these numbers -- to have any kind of significance to it or is it just one more of the variables that were kind of thinking gee maybe.

It's it's one more variable that kind of keep you humble you know this election was as -- and -- -- -- at the airport this morning and doing a -- former governor.

One.

Remain nameless for his sake that you won it a bad year for his party defeated -- incumbent and said look.

Incumbent thought they are safe and I certainly didn't think it was to me this is -- talk and he did and now know as just one of those things where.

The incumbents get overconfident.

Dramatically -- the Obama campaign is over happen and I mean I think.

The talk of the game.

You know and and his fellow one you know an upset so he is the edit it right this much stuff going around all the polls -- one point -- one went down I mean it's just.

My favorite quote from them to do interviews as before.

The Hollywood screenwriter William Goldman.

At some of summarizing his thirty year career Hollywood won two Oscars renewed just talking about this -- -- what do you know about Hollywood is that quote nobody knows anything quote.

That -- -- but he thinks I'm busy to keep it -- just does it better.

Because he had a great career but the point is in the end you never know whether -- -- was going to be -- hit.

Right you never know whether your hand if you look at look at -- Ralph this -- with a terrific movie by the way he comes out as we can resisting it because it's got split whimsical.

Racquet racquet with a W racquet Ralph it's a cartoonist sort of like -- -- -- activity.

-- -- I trust me it's gonna have zero name awareness between the storm in the election.

I am proud of what the other thing that we're talking about is the unemployment numbers and what we're saying if this is kind of the last sort of tangible variable to come in which is the unemployment numbers it is down -- is actually up one.

The percent to seven point 9%.

With of 171000.

Jobs added Julie how do you look at this if you're the Obama camp and it's -- -- They're not just for the Obama camp for everybody if the unemployment rate had jumped up tremendously for over 8% again which the psychological 8%.

Mark or we is somehow fallen to 7% which is never gonna happen but I mean -- there's massive jump either way.

Then both campaigns could have said something about it in the news media -- -- it's -- -- but when you have essentially an unemployment rate where.

The greatest -- up -- creating more jobs and economists predicted were gonna create that sense.

You know people are pretty much already may have their minds at this point -- Isn't it hasn't even going to really yeah.

Waiting to happen you know I don't care what it says right -- I know him as somebody who's an -- -- a -- collections of somebody who has -- elections by this point in the game the Friday before the election.

It's Soledad getting your people you've identified her supporters.

There's many many many people that you're no longer trying to persuade because either they're not coming out to vote -- you will have already made up their minds.

This is all about getting your folks that's the polls in which is why those Virginia numbers I think.

Are more telling than unemployment rate would have been either way because unemployment rate essentially people people -- you know -- -- -- -- -- Romney is is -- -- west Alice a Wisconsin and he talked about as unemployment numbers and he said that the unemployment rate is higher then when it.

President Obama took office and he's going to use that Kennedy -- have you.

Can't he can't look look at I mean -- -- what.

Obama supporters have a hard time articulating it's.

What President Obama -- the next four years will make.

Those were yours better than the past four years -- on employment growth many of them.

Presidency -- -- content that regulation right you know and so I was on them and -- actually.

So you kind of even more -- this morning and said you know we should be raising taxes and in -- -- times.

I'm so yeah I think well.

If if the argument becomes.

Do you think that.

President Obama has done a good job Obama will lose now that the Charlie Cook is a good.

He has done a good job I think -- You're saying if Obama and -- think Obama I think about that benevolence.

And that is if you think -- what do you think if if you ask yourself has Obama done a good -- or not.

I'm a little -- I think that the the Obama campaign knows that -- they've got their own plan which has been to -- Romney with negative ads for the last six months and as Charlie Cook points out.

If if you live in the ten states -- so.

Where the Obama campaign has been bombing Romney you do have a negative you -- it wears you -- the rest of the countries around us and tell.

That might make that it is an election.

My view of Obama supporters is they just like him I mean people who don't agree with us politics don't agree with -- -- really hot button issues.

They vote for him because they know that there's two factors first of all he can't ever underscore the personal connection that a candidate makes -- -- anybody I mean.

The world is littered Al Gore to his own judgments are realizes that people would rather severe weather president and actually care what he has to say that anything.

So we saw that happen in 2000 at some extent we see that happening in some sense say the other issue.

I think is that you know as -- somebody who does like Obama I think he has some good job on some very tangible.

Thought it was just me but the African Americans -- they would vote for him my money farmland whatever percent right.

But they disagree with him on the issue of same sex marriage and there and that was -- -- -- this -- I'm just saying is that these are things that simply don't.

You can't.

You know.

But if you're African American are you really voting and same sex marriage -- -- -- today and here I'm just saying is that you've got an issue that that they've got good American community.

-- very strong about but they feel strong were obviously.

To support the first African American to some extent I think -- feel strongly that his policies regardless of his race.

Are the policies that would benefit them now other people may disagree but that's how I've only what what you know the unemployment rate -- -- African Americans is much higher than for whatever it is got it -- You -- -- -- but I -- -- didn't but it but I menacing words and look at Iran is supposedly don't run in a vacuum run against somebody.

And if you're African American are you really gonna say that some because discretionary spending without actually saying where they're gonna cut programs and how they're gonna plug that budget but if you're saying I'm gonna cut everything but not essential defense spending.

Including for example FEMA which we decide including a whole bunch of issues that help -- -- African Americans but everybody.

Why in God's name would you ever vote for Mitt Romney -- -- you.

Earlier but I don't think -- the philosopher -- An actual moves possible.

And so if if if Obama gets 95% of the black vote then he -- -- -- -- black vote for whatever whatever reason but my my point is out.

Is that if -- Who also live in a country where 60% -- -- population thinks one of my friend.

And that's Obama's track and I promised it wouldn't be -- responsible for last four years and so if if if they have -- -- a bad judgment.

Then Obama loses that they -- the salvation for Obama is -- he is sufficiently.

My clobbered Romney in those in key states.

I -- -- you know because.

I took economics and and and college I remember this whole -- about NODX economic policies of -- country.

Takes so long -- -- -- part of cooling women -- -- right now whose policies that we wouldn't right now.

And you know.

Like you know you Colin Powell said could anybody -- the economy around for years.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- My first priority whenever -- priorities making sure Barack Obama as a one term president.

We go from there so anybody could Connecticut have been George Bush -- the Mitt Romney could have been any of us could come in there that -- I -- -- get the cooperation of your fellow politicians in Washington how are you ever -- -- and I haven't you read.

Let's in -- it comes present policies are not rated -- twentieth in the next day Harry Reid.

The -- he's still the senate majority leader says I'm not gonna do anything I'm just not a cooperative I shut this thing down what's ironic -- it's you you won't be able to do anything I'm not a they have.

Well industry historic perspective Franklin Roosevelt cut unemployment rate in half.

First her.

I think that's what's possible is it it has happened before -- what was congress and is working with it was a devils it was well.

It was a bit mixed in it was a bit it was a bit of it was a democratic congress but it was full of -- -- those wells towards what he did did you okay.

I don't think I don't think anybody can think back the stimulus package.

And -- well that was a really well practiced enough and and and -- I don't think anybody can look at say that the health care bill was the most vital economic issues facing the country and so.

Hope the president made a budget choices that now seem to be but it starting hurting him and his.

But it is jobs and -- the languishing because congress don't take it up is that -- I think it is unfortunate hasn't been addressed is the fiscal cliff that word on the verge of other issue yes have -- we have had a grand bargain.

Haven't had not had people like Paul Ryan shutting it down of course we could have -- the problem is when you don't have a partner that you can work with.

When you have a congress that as a senator this filibustered more in the past four years in the ever filibustered in the history of this country.

I do you remember and I and I I do remember though.

You know that criticism had been that.

Obama would only play if they did it his way.

-- that was the criticism even though we can blame.

You know the congress -- saying we're not gonna work with Obama there was this sense that he wasn't going to work with well first of all he gave a lot -- put Medicare on the table when you know that is anathema -- a big part of his face he really.

Came to the table with John Boehner at him his private -- even Jon -- would have agreed.

That Obama seat get a lot -- had -- -- then you have a wing.

Paul Ryan on the wing of the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives they just said no we're not cooperate with -- -- when you have issue people like that but -- essentially if Obama loses.

We're gonna now looks Dalglish is a reward for that kind of behaviors that Democrats will have no sense -- -- of the Republican -- the president.

Because they're gonna say why should we he won't be able to get anything done -- to the White House back in four years it's -- Which takes you back to my service in the bush went on my house where it sure seemed like George Mitchell the democratic leaders and it -- with the Democrats you can house had the exact same attitude toward bush 41 loses twenty years ago this may be a fairly standard pattern.

We have a polarized world of an opposition congress is -- as I think the Democrats were backing bush 41 days or the Republicans and with our time to see the incumbent lose.

That's part of the deal -- do you have Fred Barnes Joseph in north -- morning Nancy thoughtful views on exactly this topic and says that he thinks that it.

President Obama had.

Offered a stimulus package I bet that that was more in keeping with the public might have voted for now that's aren't that different for -- -- -- -- -- Republicans -- okay -- enough to -- -- of a bipartisan -- instead.

Obama got his stimulus is way which means you know that's the point Obama he didn't want that he didn't get any Republican -- -- that it's getting okay.

What would belittle the other thing because of what -- in and it may be a non factor but I thought it was interesting that.

Mayor Bloomberg of New York has endorsed President Obama -- said that he would not endorse any candidate but because the storm.

The so devastating on you work and he felt that it was caused by global warming -- -- because of that.

That he's going to.

Endorse President Obama.

What do you think about.

Well it did not factor the fact they don't -- influence.

The rest and they have had help -- -- Dave -- It's late senate.

-- out this morning saying that.

President Obama ought to talk Bloomberg -- did not.

Using them to New York City Marathon this -- absolutely right and I mean immunity to be here.

Discrediting your post this morning has a great headlines showing a picture of a power generator that will be used.

You know cool -- for something in the near marathon when it could be -- houses that violent.

It's a strange choice and so look in the near times this morning front page you don't you don't altercations -- on gas station turns out.

I don't I'm not sure -- -- -- -- on the Bloomberg endorsement on the narrow issue.

The optics of this weekend.

You know literally a couple of up and -- he won the endorsement he he's sad.

He says unity.

He said he got a little -- -- coalition of centrist Washington who could find common ground on important issues like illegal guns immigration tax reform and deficit reduction.

I mean even though he.

I endorsed him are there you can just look at what he's been through it and that's you know that's the -- the -- if you actually look at what's been going on you look at it in the NRA's.

-- Dick Lugar would have been issuing this here.

Had he won his primary nomination but instead he lost to Tea Party guy any time and time again Olympia -- basically doing the talents that I can't work -- -- more centrist Republican.

-- -- here and you see that because of redistricting you see that because of primaries -- that because there as the tea parties to that frankly.

We're partially responsible the rise of of votes went for seven cable news stations for politics is costly to get it over and so.

You know we have issues like that they're they're very -- centrist that Michael Bloomberg can point to to work with.

Joseph Lieberman I mean he's on -- -- -- he's he's gone after this year.

I don't really know who's left.

John do you think it'll have an affect Obama's explanation I can say most people who have are good morning -- Obama -- supported in fact.

I'm not really.

I wasn't.

Understanding at first why this was even a headline of course.

Bloomberg would support Obama because he agrees almost put everything he.

And that's why -- IS is making a big deal.

That does -- TV by the possibility you know -- and wasn't enough Bolivia let's get back there importers which is Bloomberg -- person.

I you know and it is actually more important -- it was better for Obama is Chris Christie in his love -- The past few days out of the Jersey Shore because instead -- talking about -- -- has -- -- -- that I work with Democrats to work with Republicans -- Obama is -- to say it he's got the keynote speaker the Republican National Convention Mitt Romney's number one surrogate a guy who has never shied away from from.

Glowing in the praise of Mitt Romney going out there praising Barack Obama to the skies and Yemeni -- Think -- -- -- bodes well for Obama or does it it confirmed to a lot of Republicans see how we can work with them.

Even -- they don't work with us tonight and then I don't even know -- that -- That if you're -- 4040 -- up your mind it's kind of because Obama looks presidential campaign and you know that's what we're we're gonna have to wrap up the panels and Hampshire we're going to be tucking the war that war over the next four days guys -- doing -- instinct former Corzine -- -- communications director box -- contributor -- finger again.

Contributing editor writer the American conservative magazine and fox and -- these contributor and you can also see him on fox news watch on Saturday.

From 3 -- 4 eastern time thank you so much.

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