Will independent voters put Romney in the White House?
Unprecedented polling from Whit Ayres
- Duration 5:57
- Date Nov 3, 2012
Unprecedented polling from Whit Ayres
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Welcome back to The Journal Editorial Report.
I'm -- should go well it's the final weekend before the presidential election and national polls show the race in a dead heat.
Like many analyst Republican pollster whit Ayers says the key to victory for either candidate Tuesday rests with independents.
And he has some new numbers to share -- so with great to have you back on the program.
Is is the race is the race really is is tied -- as the polls seem to suggest.
It is incredibly tight just incredibly tight.
But what's not tight now.
Is this standing among independents.
Who gave Barack Obama and eight point margin of victory in 200852.
We -- now showing in our latest resurgent republic poll independents going for Mitt Romney.
By a twelve point margin 51.
Now this is nothing new.
Independence -- -- going south on Obama since the spring of 2009.
After he proposed a stimulus package and his budget with a trillion dollar deficit.
But this is the first time in our polling that we've seen Romney with a double digit lead over Obama.
That would be a huge turn around if the numbers held a twenty point that turn around from the election in 2008 OK but if that's true and I agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independence -- to -- but if that's right and it's a big switch from 2008 and why hasn't Romney would have.
I'm more comfortable lead at least two or three points.
It in these polls.
Of the disagreement in the polls right now Paul involves differing assumptions about the makeup of the electorate.
If we have an electorate that looks like 2004.
With equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans turning out.
Then a double digit lead for Romney among independents means he wins comfortably right.
On the other hand if we have an electorate that looks more like 2008 -- seven percentage points more Democrats than Republicans in the electorate.
Then that's probably enough.
To save Obama even if he loses independents by a doesn't -- well where we were all in the -- OK so where do you think the electorate is going to turn out there's going to be somewhere maybe in between 2000 foreign 2008 and that would I guess make it very close.
Our last poll shows a four point democratic margin of 35 Democrat 31 reply so that is right way halfway between 2004 NA.
Frankly Paul nobody knows with 100% assurance exactly what this electorate is gonna look like on Tuesday and if anybody tells you they do their line.
OK now the other big discrepancy in the polls as the isn't the difference between the national surveys which have.
Obama and Romney very very close to tied in the state swing state polls which have except for North Carolina and Florida.
Basically have the wrote dean of the two candidates either -- but but Obama having a 12 or more point leads as many as five and some.
Lead over Romney why the discrepancy between the national survey and the state polls.
The discrepancy is caused by the tremendous.
Number of negative ads.
That the Obama campaign ran against Mitt Romney over the course of the last six months.
A rising tide lifts all boats but it doesn't with them quite as far in the battleground states as it does.
Elsewhere because of all the negative ads that the Obama campaign is -- Nevertheless.
A lot of those states are incredibly close there eight states right now that are within.
Less than three points so who knows which way those are gonna go on Tuesday.
There's another factor here that's really interesting and -- which is that in these head to head surveys in the swing states President Obama.
Typically can't get above 4748%.
Even if he's leading Romney by a couple of points.
He can't get rise to get to that 50%.
Level and that gives a lot of people in the Romney camp.
Confidence that when it comes to Election Day.
The president is gonna increase his vote much beyond that and they can and that undecideds will break towards -- what do you think about that argument.
In Oakland seat races undecideds tend to break evenly but with the incumbent reelection campaigns.
Undecideds tend to break toward the challenger that doesn't mean exclusively for the challenger.
The people who decided in the last week in 2004.
Voted for Kerry over bush by 52 to 46%.
So they went over the challenger.
They went for the challenger.
That might be just enough to get Romney over the top.
It was the same thing in 1996 -- even though Bob Dole lost by a big margin the undecideds at the end did break.
Did break for him and -- at the end so.
Wit what's your prediction here where do you think this is gonna golf I can put -- a spot.
Well with the knowledge that pollsters tend to be better predicting the past and predicting the future of our I will tell you that I think if current trends hold.
I believe that Romney will probably win the popular vote.
We will see whether that's enough to win the Electoral College as well.
Do you have any surprise states that Romney might pick up that are on the radar here say Minnesota Pennsylvania.
Those are stretch.
The ones that we really need for to go for Romney are ones like Virginia and Colorado.
Which are just incredibly close along with New Hampshire and of course Ohio.
-- those you will probably pull it out.
All right thanks would -- appreciate your being here.