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And we are back now on the Fox News election headquarters in New York.
Well in the polls so close which side has the better field organization may determine who's president the next four years.
The man in charge of -- turnout for Romney is political director rich -- who joins us from campaign headquarters in Boston and -- welcome to FOX News Sunday.
Chris thanks for having me on I'm just sitting here trying to imagine what -- -- mr.
Axelrod is going to look like next week without his -- -- -- It's been kind of fun to think -- -- So will say.
Let let me ask you about David Axelrod because -- said -- you guys are desperate in Pennsylvania and you're vulnerable in Florida your reaction.
Well desperate for years ago this this weekend that President Obama was campaigning in Indiana.
Today -- a governor Romney is that campaigning in Pennsylvania.
I don't think K campaigning in states where we haven't won since 19881984.
Are exactly acts of desperation it looks like the map is starting to expand.
Drastically in our favor and it's nothing that we're doing as governor Romney's message.
And when you talk about Florida.
That for them go down to spend more money down there's a little bit like that Barack Obama's government right now that they just wanna throw money at a problem and hope that it fixes -- -- at the end of the day.
Governor Romney is going to carry Florida by by a significant margin.
-- let me ask you about the point that he made Romney and you know money is one thing of the candidates time is you know is the most precious commodity in these closing hours.
And Romney tomorrow on Monday he is going to spend time in Florida and Virginia.
Shouldn't you have locked up both those reliably Republican states weeks ago.
Well -- -- forget Chris that reliably Republican Barack Obama won both of those states and in 2008.
So if you look at the absentee ballot numbers coming out of Florida.
The the Democrats in 2008 had about a 370000.
That's been cut down to about 70000 votes right now and we will win on Election Day by by a significant margin so.
Florida you want to make sure is taking care of I don't know why they're spending money down there governor Romney wants to take another swing down there.
As far as Virginia it's going to be a close state is gonna come down and -- the very end.
But when you look at the at the early results out of absentee ballots in and Democrat counties vs Republican counties.
And this is a case all over the country Chris they are underperforming and we are over performing.
Axelrod can spin it any way he wants about John McCain or or they're not doing as much as well but the fact of the matter is governor Romney's message is carrying the day.
All right but we talked -- Axelrod about the real clear politics average of recent polls in the electoral map.
-- Here's a list of the key swing states that I wanna ask you about.
You're trailing in Wisconsin.
You're trailing in Pennsylvania Ohio and Iowa and as you suggest you're basically tied.
In what for you was the must -- state of Virginia where the Obama campaign has also made a laid out by.
We're gonna get to the specific states and a moment but I want to ask you about that the general point are you saying that these polls these public polls are wrong.
Or are you saying that they may be right but -- you're gonna win anyway because your ground game is -- and you're gonna turn your voters out more effectively than they are.
Well these polls are like nailing jello to a -- they're all over the place and and and you're gonna if you're gonna see polls be different in each state by each day.
But there's -- numbers to keep in mind here Kristen goes across the country as we go and and a specific states -- matter even more.
One is independent independents are gonna decide this race can and all of the State's governor Romney consistently leads among independent.
Because may have seen his message for for four -- twelve million jobs real recovery strengthening in the middle class.
The second -- you've got an incumbent president.
Who has been running for this job for the last four years since the day he got elected we'll raise and -- over one billion dollars and he was stuck well below fifty.
And all these polls.
When you're when you're an incumbent under that under fifty and well under fifty that's a bad place to be.
Let's look and and obviously it hasn't been your focus the so far.
Early voting absentee voting and let's take a look at some of those numbers.
And this is nationally at this point more than half a million fewer Democrats have voted down in final final early voting in 2008.
While more Republicans have voted already early than did in the final voting in four years ago.
But the Democrats still -- as you can see -- by almost 600000 votes Axelrod says look.
It they're not gonna do as well as they did four years ago and yes you are doing better than John McCain.
But there's a bit of -- Well -- he can he can hope and wish only wants.
That they're sticking points that there may have been voting their high propensity voters -- that there Chris that's that those are the voters we're gonna turn out and vote under any circumstances.
We have been concentrating on low propensity voters voters who don't vote and every election it's what the -- the Obama campaign terms a sporadic voters.
We've done much much better job of getting our low propensity voters out to vote.
And on Election Day we've got all of our high propensity voters ready to go vote on Election Day.
Republicans for whatever reason tend to -- to -- it like to vote on Election Day in Ohio for example we have 371000.
High propensity Republicans.
Than they have Democrats.
Let's look at Ohio and we showed.
The early voting numbers that you provided us for Ohio -- axle rod.
But I want to take a look at the real clear politics -- the polls in Ohio and this goes back as you can see for months and you've never held a lead there you got real close after the first debate.
But you've never have a lead they're not once in Ohio and in fact the Obama margin has grown slightly recently.
Well there's only one number that's gonna matter and that's the one on Election Day and and we're very confident that governor Romney is going to prevail and in Ohio on Election Day.
That and again at some point due to Ohio.
It's when you look at all of those public polls I think 2425.
In 21 of them.
Governor Romney is leading with independent and not -- small margin but -- -- double digit -- and anyone involved with Ohio politics -- across the country -- tell you.
That the candidate who wins.
Independents and Ohio is going to be win the Ohio election.
So we're we're very confident about the race there when you see you know President Obama is gonna underperformed badly down on the southeastern part of the state in the coal counties.
-- the Lima tank factory in in Lima when Vice President Biden went on his debate and said that.
You know -- have been the the Defense Department doesn't need any -- M one tanks and the -- the tank factory is the only place in the country that refurbished -- those tanks so.
-- you're gonna see pockets.
Disaffection -- in Ohio that are that are gonna that are gonna cut into their you know their margins and again at the end of the day.
I feel very good about governor Romney's message and our current operation.
Your campaign started running and then -- in Ohio this week which implies.
The G-8 is shipping US jobs to China.
When in fact they are just expanding their operations to.
Headed to China but they're not -- actually shipping US jobs overseas.
I want to play a clip of the out and then how President Obama responded to.
Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy.
And sold Chrysler to Italians -- -- going to build jeeps and China you don't.
Scare hardworking Americans just the scare up some -- That's not what big -- about.
Rex was not a mistake especially when GM and Chrysler both said that the -- was basically misleading.
-- and the fact is that Chrysler far from shipping jobs to -- is actually expanding operations in -- Well I found it interesting that the President Obama would attack governor Romney on that -- net when they put up an ad saying that.
You know but that governor Romney says let Detroit go bankrupt when that they have a headline from the New York Times op Ed.
And and the second thing is is is President Obama talking about scaring people when yesterday he's out there are saying voting is the best revenge.
So if this gets back to a president who says when you can't talk about big issues you talk about small things -- rather than talking about.
A sixteen trillion dollar deficit or or or or twelve million jobs are putting America back to work he's talking about big bird he's talking about voting for revenge.
So let's that about that's why you see governor Romney opening up leads him and now in Minnesota yesterday Pennsylvania has moved into a -- Michigan has moved into a -- All of these are states that we're not target states three weeks ago and it's because of governor Romney's message.
Now you say that these stated Padres moved into a time cornyn -- -- -- the real clear politics average I think it's four point margin.
Last night there was successful -- -- -- came out last night is 4747.
Again President Obama well under fifty in -- state that he should be well over fifty there's a million more -- Democrats in Pennsylvania and are Republicans.
And and -- it's important remember that energy is a very important issue in the state of Pennsylvania.
And in 2008 and a Democrat primary Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by double digits after Barack Obama was the presumptive nominee for his party.
-- Pennsylvania's very fertile ground for us.
What will you be looking at.
Early on election night what states what county is secondly what if how is this going to be how will you know whether it's going to be an early night -- a long night.
And how long do you think it's gonna take for us to figure out who's the next president.
Well there's going to be a lot of a lot of key bellwethers but what we're seeing consistently from the early and absentee.
Numbers is that.
That there is there is a general underperforming and you know and in places where President Obama needs to do well and there's an over performing in places where governor Romney does well.
There's an intensity factor out there on the side of the Republicans.
That -- significant gap and we see down on the ground we see when people knocking on the doors we see it when people are are are making phone calls.
And -- and again he gets back to the simple fact that governor -- is out there talking about big things and big change not about small things.
And it's I think as we start seeing returns coming in from -- from New Hampshire.
From southeastern Pennsylvania from Northern Virginia.
From Cuyahoga county and Matt in Ohio I think it's gonna become pretty clear that there's going to be 88 a widespread repudiation of the Obama administration.
And and governor Romney and congressman Ryan will be elected the next president vice president in the states and I didn't -- -- -- want to know that.
You say not -- very long what -- what are you predicting got thirty seconds are you saying we're gonna no earlier than we thought.
I'm I'm saying that that Pennsylvania and Michigan and Minnesota.
Are not pass -- 270 as mr.
Axelrod who like to purport.
Those -- past the 300.
This is going to be a big election and governor Romney is going to win.
You're predicting over 300 -- -- -- -- It is going to be a big win for governor Romney.
-- thank you.
Thanks for sitting down with us for your first national TV interview.
Will see how the -- battle dolls and applause and -- does of this race and whether.
It turns out as well as you think it's going to thanks so much.
Chris thank you very much.
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