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Which poll numbers can you trust?

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    Ed Rollins breaks down latest results

  • Duration 5:46
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-- the last minute polling in this presidential race shows that basically the outcome is anybody's guess.

With less than 48 hours to go to Election Day we're seeing a slew of conflicting polls.

Various polls show the race is a virtual dead heat in the battleground states.

And how we can go Washington Post poll showed governor Ronnie had -- nearly twenty point lead with independents and today we're told it's gone another dead even on independence.

In Virginia CBS news poll shows President Obama up by two on other poll shows that you -- -- even.

In New Hampshire one poll shows the tour in a dead heat with another poll has the president had by six.

That -- -- onetime political watchers -- in Pennsylvania said that's it Pennsylvania Alonso the president no ifs ands or buts about it.

But a new poll from the Pittsburgh Tribune review shows a -- in Pennsylvania.

My head is about to explode.

Joining us now to help us understand and -- 1984 Reagan reelection campaign which was successful and have Fox News contributor thank -- and that's just a couple of you know Virginia.

And running that no Obama is ahead by two and now Florida there's conflicting information Ohio it's a dead heat no Obama's up I do know -- he's up by two.

New Hampshire present is ahead by eight now or six no it's dead even no -- I mean.

I think -- are like I don't.

Should we be -- pay attention these polls at this point.

Well saw a -- finally to have to Election Day and -- obviously.

Yeah always if you're in the -- a margin of error.

And then they always say 95 out of a hundred times as accurate within this margin of error.

Every so often you get one that's outside that -- that the market so much accomplished in these -- -- I think the only thing he should follow you follow trends and and the trends are.

The -- have a very close -- dead even race either of these men can win on Tuesday my my gut tells me.

No education beyond just -- gotten a lot of years doing this I think Romney will squeak this thing out in the end.

Will no real quick on and on Tuesday night we'll know those three southern states -- would matter if he wins Florida if he wins North Carolina.

And if he wins Virginia which all close early and we know -- on the way tell us just a closer -- and if he does but he doesn't win those then obviously he can't he can't put too.

Right.

What do you make of this this.

There's a poll out today showing them dead even in -- Michigan.

Dead even in Pennsylvania.

Or was in Minnesota.

In any event dead even in these democratic stays at a president was said to have -- -- -- That if that trend is going that way and -- and Romney wins those states he's -- have a landslide victory.

He's going to be over 300 electoral votes.

-- out of it -- -- I'm not predicting that but but it's possible something is happening in these states where these folks who had previously been obviously telling pollsters that they're gonna vote democratic.

Are having a change of heart well there's a there's a white ethnic boats out -- this basically has its and we at least called the old Reagan Democrats they -- the last -- a drop in 1980 when Reagan got elected.

And my sense is a lot of them at this point I'm making a judgment the judgment is.

What does this president given us over the last four years -- -- give us in the second it's any different verses a decent guy who basically is ending on an upbeat note who certainly has a successful career.

I think people making up -- judgment in the entire matter where they were in polls earlier right now a lot of you make them.

The -- in the polls sunshine mentioned -- -- they -- the independents are now even this political -- of the swing states that show they independents -- now even.

But they -- and it was a Ronnie managed by ten points earlier.

But they say that's explained by the fact that more more of these independents actually just -- and identify as Republicans -- that because they don't call my party registration they just ask your your Republican and Democrat and -- -- -- the end of the day is a 100% the voters and there are so let's say it is so let's say that's the case was even right it's like.

Even in the polls it's even with the independents and now -- polls show that the favorability is even which is really the first time we've seen that for the two candidates -- -- always been lagging President -- favorite so they like on both the same.

Hot that the historically how would that play -- Election why that would play is it more of these independents have now probably the only Republican Party which is showing greater and greater strength.

And at the end of the day.

He that a lot of these polls early on measures smaller they -- the the 2008 figures.

At this point in time I would argue that probably probably more people -- self identify as Republicans.

I certainly think this self identified independents will go for Romney in a narrow victory serving the Republicans overwhelmingly gonna go and I think that making just enough to -- -- the evangelical vote because that was big voting bloc that didn't really come out in force were told back in 2008 when Barack Obama won the presidency -- About the -- They're very enthused this time it's it is very much an anti started out as an anti Obama vote.

It's become a pro Romney in addition to an anti Obama vote -- point 5% and -- 70% historically have voted for Republican Party.

Catholic voters are point 5% of the electric historically whoever wins the Catholic vote wins a majority wins the presidency.

Those two groups are basically getting very energized.

And I think you know is as we watch the African American turnout from the churches today and last Sunday when -- you're gonna see a lot more of these voters turn out.

And that -- -- apparently some messages from the -- in in some there's always very solid pro life is a very significant group assert evangelicals have always done this with Catholic vote traditionally is never bend that.

That lets you put -- something on their windshield on the parking lot that you have actually have priests and bishops standing up on the pulpit and saying.

It is that this.

This year you have a real choice and you need to basically Indiana you're conscious -- we making too because they're upset about the mandate in obamacare that forces religiously believe violate it's it's not it's a religious freedom issue it's a very very significant issue.

It's critical in the states like Ohio.

Possibly Pennsylvania as well -- Virginia we've got a lot of evangelicals and Christian and I catalyst gigantic evangelical council -- so.

Ed Rollins thank you sir a pleasure -- will know soon.

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