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In Pennsylvania a deadlock in Pennsylvania according to a new Susquehanna poll for the Pittsburgh Tribune review President Obama governor running an up tied at 47% in the battleground state now that is a two point jump for governor Romney since September.
Democratic strategist Joseph Trippi joints is.
-- but then of course there are other Pennsylvania dead pollsters one public policy polling.
Which has a pres Obama 52 to 46 I don't know like I got so many polls I -- haven't -- straight.
So tell me Dick Moore says this -- -- be a wooden floor of governor Romney.
Well somebody is as you pointed out somebody's really wrong and somebody is -- look like a genius on on Tuesday and it and I think part of what's happening here and you see -- -- those two polls that you just talked about Susquehanna and PPP.
Is there's two different both campaigns have two different models their turnout models are looking it.
Can't and that's why I actually agree somebody's gonna get 300 electoral but I don't think this is going to be close I don't think it's gonna be.
Because if the beat all these swing states and are so close.
That if the Romney models right through there right about the -- the turnout model thin they're gonna win all these swing states.
And if they're wrong in the Obama folks are right about the turnout model.
Then Obama's gonna win Florida.
And Virginia and Ohio and all these swing states I I I I really believe that.
I don't I inside.
For a lot of different reasons in which the interest think by the way is Dick Morris went out.
People who've done this for a living.
You know how to read these things.
Well this is an election where that's not the case I read these polls I look at them I look at the same things Dick Morris and Karl Rove and and others -- -- acts and and it and IE I believe the Obama turnout model is going to be closer to what we see on Election Day.
I may be the one that's sitting here with egg on his face -- -- was -- ideas yeah exactly.
Putting I don't -- but I'm just saying like right now Whitley it.
For Pennsylvania to be in play.
The -- the Romney turnout model has to be in play.
And if that's true I don't understand what he's doing in Virginia or why he's going -- -- going back to Florida.
Those states should be in the bag of the state like Pennsylvania's in play.
At the same time -- by the way here's what I think's going on.
I think neither campaign either both campaigns believe in their turnout model but fear the other one is right.
So if you're if you believe -- turnout models right.
And you believe you're gonna win Pennsylvania but you fear Romney might be right is sent President Clinton there to rally the troops -- it and it and played defense for you.
And that's why -- -- upon the Romney people are going to Florida and Virginia they believe in their bottle.
But they so fear that it might be the Obama turnout model that's in play.
That they are still fighting for states it should be in the bag this is -- very very.
I don't recall election quite liked it.
And one in that so so in the air and -- so many -- people I respect who know how to read these things.
Are on toll -- coming to totally including Michael Barone.
Who is somebody I I really respect whose projecting 300 on the other side for for Romney -- very good it.
-- looking at these numbers I just disagree with -- -- they're gonna disagree with -- we're gonna have to find out on Tuesday.
I haven't done a doctor myself just understood the basically two models and the minuses -- what percentage Democrats vote and what percentage of Republicans -- vote.
And the -- try to arrive at that number is by a look at past elections if you look at 2008.
The Republicans say that's such an anomaly because there's so much enthusiasm for President Obama and that if the -- if if that's the motto it's going to be skewed based in correctly is that right they think they should look at a different -- perhaps -- -- four more accurate phrase that -- in the simplified version.
-- this it it it's that it's also demographics count how many whites are gonna vote what age groups things like that and you can you keep you put that all into the mix and that creates what you believe that your turn -- projections going to be also look.
The the Obama people knew from that from day one.
What the old what the model is supposed to look like what the Romney people -- looking -- they went out set out to try to change that they tried to register more.
More people they tried -- early vote more people as the Romney people have done.
There there's been a fight going on to change this this this the formation of the electorate so to speak.
By getting your voters there both campaigns have been hammering in Ohio to do that both -- done done so very successfully.
In the -- and running people have done a better job that then McCain did in in 2008.
Vis a vis the Obama people all this is coming into play.
And in the pollsters are trying to stay on top of that.
If you look at these different models.
A a younger electorate.
They -- trying to turn out younger voters.
Are they going to be successful at doing that but younger voters are less intense this time -- they were in 2008.
All -- and -- so Romney thinks it's going to be lower with younger voters.
In other words in other words hang on to see absolutely and that will find out on Tuesday got to go -- but death.
Thank his -- thanks -- --