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Karl Rove plays out Electoral College scenarios

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    Close race means a variety of possible outcomes

  • Duration 7:10
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Right now -- play this game of what if there's frankly no one knows right now Kerr rose with me now -- good ones -- welcome back to New York compared to have a little fun right.

And because you've been crunching numbers and later tonight and -- -- chip or you're gonna review your final map.

In your final numbers what you're not ready yet I understand right.

He like for five more hours across your final.

I'm ready but but it that they won't allow me to share will IC okay sorry you're not -- finished with full respect I say that now -- it here's -- what if scenario -- that we're gonna put together.

Right now base in the battleground states the presence to a one governor -- 191.

So it's a crow if if governor Romney does not win Ohio how does -- -- the White House has put this in motion right now let's say he has to win in Florida 29 electoral votes right.

Would you say he wins north Carolina at fifteen -- -- aren't we given that does he win in Virginia yes or no yes.

By a hair by hair found in Florida and wins Florida by a margin close to -- -- Obama one of my last appearance.

-- I guess I get -- Virginia to now is it to 48 OK so you're you're 22 electoral votes away from winning the White House now.

Where do you go right now to get the remaining do you win Pennsylvania.

If you do you -- 268.

Yeah you know -- -- -- some the Republicans haven't done since 1988.

So let me move west okay I'll give -- Colorado is -- 257.

And so of the remaining states on the board between Nevada.

Iowa Wisconsin.

Michigan Pennsylvania New Hampshire.

What is the best scenario that you see your may be the more likely scenario to get him from 257.

To a minimum 269.

Well Iowa New Hampshire.

Okay we'll give -- -- would six electoral votes for New Hampshire Jackson -- four.

That would put him -- 267.

Right so you're still -- Nevada Wisconsin.

Michigan.

-- is the most likely scenario there is in Wisconsin -- what.

Would you are well Wisconsin -- Nevada I know that -- that is going to be very close the Democrats have.

Have gotten about the base number that they need for area for a lead in early voting.

The Republican enthusiasm in the cal can't niece's high and it's gonna come down to watch a -- but it's going to be a narrow victory for either side.

I'd say the most likely are a Nevada and Wisconsin.

Okay come back on the map here is second on the case who would know what's the likely scenario for the president he's going to three different states today he's -- 201 okay.

So if he were to go to what Wisconsin.

Ohio and Iowa just today so given Wisconsin.

Iowa.

And the state of Ohio he's -- 235.

So on the remaining -- here you see these strategies in the final moments now where they pick and where they go and the reasons why.

Say the president were to pick Pennsylvania he's -- 255.

And so now at this at that at this moment based on this scenario.

And all the polling we have seen maybe takes Michigan that would be enough to get -- -- 271.

Yeah -- shows a centrality of Ohio I don't think he's gonna material out and take a look at them the early vote numbers -- just -- New England on them.

Remember for years ago the Democrats took the early -- 7121000.

Democrats -- out of voted in the in the early voting 372000.

Republicans.

As of I believe these numbers are now Saturday night.

576000.

Democrats in turn out.

That's a 145000.

Less than four years ago.

But already 472000.

Republicans and turn out.

That's -- 492000.

That's a 1191000.

-- that's a swing at 265000.

Votes.

Which is more than the president carried the state -- cared about over 300000 votes in the early vote lost Election Day to McCain.

And won the state by 260000.

To 262000.

Votes but party that margin has been more than wiped out by the decline in what the Democrats have had.

An increase in what Republicans have done early voting.

We still have Sunday and Monday numbers to go.

But that that number of that did that that swing number's been growing slightly because obviously you do have more Democrats voting reducing that the deficit they have from a weight.

But you have more Republicans voting as well which increases the of the believe they have over there trying to tell us specific to Ohio right yeah that's the San Angelo was -- it's happening everywhere too if you take a look at it.

By some calculation there's -- USA today story today.

Pointing this out that there's a decline.

For the Democrats in early voting the the numbers I'm looking at indicate that roughly 10% lead and early voting last time around.

Has been more than cut in half and remember the president won last time around by.

Fifty it was -- -- by seven points so if you drop his number down five and grows opponents number five.

He goes into deficit loses organized is that specific to Ohio and -- what was the last date that you picked up.

That early voting day well that's Saturday was that yesterday and the 10% nationwide.

Is at the 10% numbers nationwide 10% cut to five.

The numbers that I gave you of the Democrats -- -- a 145000.

Fewer and Republicans -- -- a 1191000.

More.

Is as of Saturday night so they had not yet kept up Sunday and it won't pick up Monday until maybe tomorrow morning.

But but look I've been watching this trend for a week and a half and what does happen is the Republican.

That that -- number has gone from about 230.

Thousand over the last ten or eleven days to 265000.

That is to say the number of Republicans voting over what they voted in 2000 and eight has been growing at a faster clip than they than the Democrat democratic efforts to close a gap with what they turn out -- -- -- -- I just want to show your talent that was a two -- 60000 vote margin from 2008 -- specifically in Ohio that's correct I think early voting was open for hours yesterday on Sunday I think for more hours today.

Yeah and and and I would expect that I would expect that Republican gap to narrow a little bit because I think they will have a lot of the African American churches on Sunday.

-- being -- to the to the early -- polls and so forth in Ohio.

But I don't think it's going to be diminished by more than a couple of thousand so we'll go into Election Day.

With the Democrats having.

You'll see they'll win Election Day but they're gonna want to buy it significantly smaller number than they did four years ago.

And I would suspect Republicans are likely to win the Election Day in Ohio it's always been so in -- in the modern era.

Likely to be so very likely to be so on Tuesday the question is what's the delta for the Democrat victory on in the early vote vs what the Republican -- for before Election Day I was.

Want to put a fine point on this late on Friday night you said Ohio would be determined.

By between 80000.

And -- 1101000.

Votes that is a smaller margin than how George Bush beat John Kerry in 2004.

Well it is but look it's it's also still substantial victory -- -- -- they'll be.

That it'll be a healthy number and you might quite got as an ambivalent with OK here's the deal -- this we're we're we're on the nice -- for everybody.

You take a look at the last week of polls -- 23 national polls.

The average if you average all those polls together is 483 for Romney to 481.

For pres Obama that's as of literally half an hour gotten.

-- -- Thank you you -- seeing all.

Karl Rove crunching numbers Reuters more.

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