Difficulty in predicting election winner
Presidential race too close to call?
- Duration 3:59
- Date Nov 5, 2012
Presidential race too close to call?
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This transcript is automatically generated
The White House all the major polls point to one thing.
A dead heat between governor Romney and President Obama all the polls show it within the margin of error.
So what can we take from these latest numbers Bill Kristol is the editor of the weekly standard and a Fox News political analyst so as a political analyst bill are you make.
No they it'll be a close race.
And that's that's pretty amazingly close and it could break either way at the very end or.
So I don't know I was very struck by that -- -- Romney's -- just saw he is closing in my opinion in the right way he's closing big he's closing presidential.
He's -- with -- indictment of President Obama -- a policy indictment of President Obama have a personal indictment and is closer with his own positive agenda I think that's intelligence.
I think that could win those few remaining independent sites I talked -- some of last night -- phone calls and Ohio.
It's organizations -- vocalist in Ohio.
He's on the Republican side so you can discount this that he found -- they found and independents they're calling people who previously had said they were uncertain voters uncertain who -- -- gonna vote for.
He says they're right breaking 6040 for Romney which he thinks will be enough.
To put -- over the top in Ohio so I think there's some indications out around the country of a little bit of a move to Romney at the end and certainly more enthusiasm and intensity on the Republican side.
I don't know that'll be that is if the Obama.
Machine -- team.
Reluctant Democrats reluctant Obama voters relate to the polls I personally therefore you have to -- I -- -- -- I had I predict Romney but it's it's really too close to.
Car video Wall Street Journal NBC poll among independents has Romney winning 4740.
And Republicans are heartened by that they say look it's pretty hard to win an election for president.
If you're not -- the independent.
Yeah I think you're probably when it depends by about 56 points from where he probably wins the election it -- had endless discussion of turnout models and all that.
I took -- 1 posted this morning is that look if if if more low propensity voters vote.
It probably helps President Obama but if you get them enthusiastic voters voting.
And some voters who -- -- supporter of President Obama they can't quite different cells to vote for -- Republican for Mitt Romney don't agree with north and issues they may just stay home.
In that scenario -- Romney wins a lot depends on it's everything depends on who votes on just struck personally anecdotally.
That I've talked with personally with Democrats who've been very loyal Democrats heard from them by email they're not -- -- who are voting this year -- -- -- -- for Romney I know of no one going.
The other way I've talked to people of Pennsylvania I think that's -- really isn't play.
Here Virginia it'll be close but I think -- has a slight edge.
So again I have my personal gut instinct is a slight movement to Romney which might be enough to taking over the top by a pointer to in these key states.
I think anyone who says they know what's gonna happen -- all right though is is that it's not -- truth.
You have Pennsylvania fascinating hasn't voted for Republican president since 88.
Democrats say all of the of the of the Romney campaign is just blowing smoke by advertising in Pennsylvania but if that's true then why is President Obama sending Bill Clinton.
To Pennsylvania to campaign for.
I think it's a very big deal John Clinton is their biggest weapon and in states like Pennsylvania Clinton is more populous -- -- -- certain.
The President Obama wouldn't Clinton carry Pennsylvania.
Pretty comfortably both times that's a kind of middle play Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania.
You know -- against President Obama presents -- about Western Pennsylvania is the President Obama famously said that they bitterly cling to their guns and and alike.
So they're putting Clinton to try to bolster that kind of swing Reagan Clinton Democrats vote in Pennsylvania.
I don't know that's gonna work I've talked to people Western Pennsylvania particular.
As well as people in the Philadelphia suburbs I think that state that could be amazing if Pennsylvania ends up going by half a point or point.
For Romney makes the difference or or -- it and Ohio go that way it was his Romney might have a even not such a close to -- -- for cars though.
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