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Good morning I'm Doug shone on here with my.
Friend and colleague -- to -- We are the two of the three campaign insiders today John the -- -- unfortunately was unable to make it.
From Long Island but -- I will do our best with your assistance.
Two have a final successful campaign insiders before.
Tomorrow's election we're gonna ask you if you could to do us.
A -- to be the third man.
Or third person a -- well.
Our group today to substitute for John that is we would love to get your tweets your emails your.
About what you predict the results to be.
We would like any thoughts you have about the Electoral College.
The popular vote -- about the campaign itself and we promise to get to as many of them as we possibly can.
In the next half hour or so.
I'd like to put up first to start the real clear average.
Of pulling through.
I guess it was yesterday.
Do we get that up on the screen.
And as you see.
It's 47 point eight.
From President Obama to 47 point four for governor Romney it's about as close as a result as you could possibly have.
-- -- what do you make of this well it's certainly within them wanna -- in my describes the margin of corruption.
That's true this is elections -- close are not pretty.
I think what's happening is the president got a bump last week with the hurricane is handling -- I've said all along that I think the Republicans denied themselves an issue with Libya.
Which would have -- set some of that performance because it was quite a conference we've -- Thank the president looked presidential when -- Jersey but I think it's kind of warn all there is some indication and -- will tell you why it.
Good bid that there's been now a slight movement at the very -- from Romney.
We're seeing in the rescue some poll which went to.
-- Romney been two points -- -- and then it went even.
And then -- -- even which suggested that Obama had -- and Allison and this has moved point hamper.
For Romney that's very tight we don't know the Gallup numbers yet this is tied -- to take you can argue it either way in anyway and before the show is -- -- -- -- -- the -- Okay well I think that that is -- -- -- my own opinion.
I've looked as I know you have pat at every poll.
And they are as tight as they can be.
The I think the most intellectually honest thing to say is that looking at all the public -- taken together.
His every swing state is effectively just a -- and the national looks -- -- now having said all that if you take Florida North Carolina.
Probably Virginia -- there's some indications.
But that's very close but I think you probably if you had do give Florida North Carolina and perhaps Virginia to governor Romney.
I think and New Hampshire probably is statistical tie it did you know I think it's just deity.
I think to your -- right.
I think when we go through the midwest.
There are two questions.
Which is has the consolidation.
Of white suburbanites in reserve and -- -- for governor Romney.
Propelled those races -- to statistical ties or will governor Romney and Pennsylvania.
Minnesota Michigan Willie fall short pat I'm curious your reaction and if you go state by state -- be very -- Apparently -- but -- -- get to divide these into that I think you're right on the question I Virginia as tight everybody think Virginia is as tight.
-- it we thought it was trending toward governor Romney.
Last week but let me but I think he can't win without -- on -- -- -- them.
But let me tell you what I think's happening you have to divide to states those swing states as I've said for several weeks on this program.
Which had been -- use my term in Ohio 400 million dollars immediate thousands of fast ground game.
A may have shown like in Virginia and Ohio less movement.
Then have from from them we have seen if you take -- period was first debate then we've seen in states we're getting no attention at all.
Wisconsin which has gotten more Minnesota Michigan.
Those states are played at their democratic state who won state I'd really believe in and argued for a month.
Before the Romney people the Republicans -- new republic the bottom of about twenty million dollars is because Pennsylvania.
Which use the question you said about suburban whites it's -- Mike pearl and question.
-- use in the second oldest state in the country.
It is not like Romney because he's not been very -- Empathetic I think I think that debate effective that it's been not a great blue state for the president.
Eve -- may be the surprise but it may not.
Right now I think Ohio is -- hard slog for Romney.
Unless everything is moving.
I think it's just sitting there so so if he loses Ohio governor Romney how can he be elected president of Pennsylvania.
Or take Minnesota I think he's gonna win Colorado.
OK I think Colorado -- I think that -- -- Wisconsin -- fact but I so we spent so much time this spring looking -- Wisconsin.
And it's presidentially democratic state but the Republicans have been -- -- probably no state became more Republican.
Into from 2008 to 2010.
Than Wisconsin and its voting day.
You know so that is an important state I suspect we will know couple things very early tomorrow night.
The early states a close.
We will have calories and we will be able to make direct comparisons on the what I think you would agree Doug is the most important question -- you know and march.
We will see whether the areas of McCain didn't get the kind of boat.
Neither voter turnout they want it is Romney getting that is -- surging as you said of anti Obama and what's happened to.
The democratic vote -- minorities particularly.
Hispanics blue collar where the enthusiasm of president may be -- Well and I think you're raising a very real question I'd like to put the real clear politics map up so work.
Viewers can visually see what pat was described ex pat let's go -- state by -- state and try to systematically.
Make I wouldn't call -- a prediction but an assessment.
What's going Florida are you a pretty sure Romney's got a I think so too there was a poll out.
Today that it plus five for Romney the polling and I'm seeing -- showing.
Swing voters moving in his direction let's give him.
North Carolina pat well I I think this has been probably the most its outstanding effort next Ohio the Obama.
A ground game effort.
But it's a state they won by what the -- about the hair -- the margins.
I think it's Romney's but will be better for a bomb with a lot of people think it ain't gonna be five or six points.
And what about.
Virginia -- we just said I -- Virginia I can't.
You know Virginia is a pain but Romney really need to -- these guys haven't I don't I don't think -- -- -- all -- states he's got to win these states.
And let me ask you this of Pennsylvania.
Michigan and Minnesota which ones do you think Romney has the best chance of winning -- well.
I think Wisconsin and Pennsylvania take your pick -- I think what's the Minnesota actually is better than Michigan.
I've heard bad numbers out of Michigan and you know -- -- of it.
But I think that did it to TR I think those two were better but interesting is an Iowa I don't know what you hear but it seems an Iowa -- Obama has got.
I think that that's right is that that's the states -- also been trending Republican.
But the Obama campaign -- -- during the caucuses.
Took over the Romney headquarters details on the -- and we don't know what I've done nurses and a -- in writing from the beginning the register endorsement we'll see what it does -- supposed to put the register endorsed Romney did run in -- for the first time in forty years is probably.
One and if you said there may be what are the four by most important endorsements.
In states I would have to say that's one of them.
But I want to tell talk about a theory it may be happening.
That I reached yesterday when -- and I were.
On with Megyn Kelly became -- late which is 1976.
The election I've been forgetting about the 111 -- and not because over the ball that.
Because of what happened.
-- read Gerald Ford who was the incumbent albeit not elected but -- -- succeeded.
President Nixon after he had been -- Had to resign.
Carter could have most camping in the last week Gerald Ford caught up in in this Sunday Gallup poll that came out they came out on.
This Saturday night and was released -- -- early Saturday.
-- -- point but it didn't matter it was statistically -- from that moment on on Sunday and Monday the race swung back to Jimmy Carter we just took off.
Because suddenly the -- -- in the race became not Jimmy Carter anymore but you wanna keep -- -- That movement on Sunday and Monday got us over two point lead.
We had -- and in a similar for both we lost eight states by less -- appoint herself we would have ended up at 330 by if you're going on another day.
He was so that's what I'm wondering whether or not we're seeing we talk about is our last minute small bump for Romney could be significant.
-- -- -- and you know basically in 2000 fortress and well what.
-- -- -- some tweets from our viewers.
On the their predictions -- this Wetzel.
Electoral votes for governor Romney.
And -- Santos Romney by 209 -- or more pat how likely do you think either of those are to be realized.
Well what I just said it but I just said is true those -- -- Michael Barone who is I think we've both perspectives one of the great analysts in terms of what's happening.
As low fifty early voting looked at the -- stuff he has way Alamo when he thinks Romney is gonna win by 330.
Me I'm not name or near that number went.
He is so these numbers are not -- this could happen if it breaks but don't be surprised if we're you know Obama has got a hole.
On what would you say I would say about 237240.
You've electoral votes pretty much a lock up -- mean he doesn't -- current.
Romney has some pretty much run the field yet and he may get but it's you know but -- a betting man I wouldn't bet that.
Our area are not a betting man and -- -- from -- Smart.
Wages where I was sort of that I care to think of but here's here's how I see it.
Romney will win Florida.
I figure he'll probably.
-- New Hampshire.
-- type figure that he's given come very close in Pennsylvania.
Within a point to to probably lose.
I am of the view that Ohio is you are is -- -- go for Obama.
I'm not convinced that there is in a sleeper between Wisconsin.
Michigan I think is is less likely but if you throw Pennsylvania -- that makes I think there's one of those three or four that governor Romney could take.
And I agree with you think Colorado.
Has been trending.
In the in the early voting -- clearly has been a lot more republic and remember this.
This is also important post job -- and I can in this for you right now if somebody could insure me what the partisan.
Breakdown is tomorrow night right people who feel Democrat that that are Democrats Republicans or independents.
Romney's caring independents both -- carrying the party bases all these polls that show.
Obama hit in the states have but with democratic numbers that are.
Higher in some cases and always learn their very high -- once a Romney does well it's much -- the party program preferences close.
You know that's you raising two points -- that before we go to our break and it is worth some attention.
There have been polls as high.
I think you feel and I feel that the partisan break is somewhere between a point to three points democratic right.
-- if it's one point democratic.
Romney's the president you better believe if it's two points -- -- the president three points and hairy -- four point.
-- -- -- -- -- But that raises one other huge huge issue that has gotten very little attention.
She is independence.
So I think independent.
Sort of what I send to -- -- and why did that could well break.
For Romney there -- polls that have shown them even or close to even good enough but I don't they're not close to either.
If that is you're you're right and I think you could be if that's a break up -- -- -- it's going to come out of independent.
So could come out of Republican Democrat soulless Democrats say help if you're right -- 5758.
That Romney would win.
Will we will be back in thirty seconds or so with the concluding.
Part of campaign insiders and our special preelection addiction.
Just stick -- this place.
We're back with campaign insiders I'm here with my friend and colleague Pat Caddell John.
The -- -- unfortunately could not make it in from Long Island today but pat with unemployment now seven point.
What does that say about how the economy will impact tomorrow's vote.
Well I think it would be showing is you -- on me and I saw the only time that a headline saying great -- jobs report on going where you can tell which side some books newspapers tomorrow.
The answer is we're not moving very much seven point nine according to those numbers which are hard to figure out employment is up.
It's earnings are down I think most people think the economy is still just basically treading water slightly upward.
We are not this is the highest unemployment for a president seeking reelection.
Since Roosevelt and there are a lot of people who and here's -- number there really got me watching reading the one of the the New York Times.
-- -- two new Wall Street Journal this week.
Of personal wealth and income.
People are down almost 5000 dollars and median income loss.
And it and the net worth drops because housing itself has been tremendous and I just think those things probably in the end don't help you be more enthusiastic.
About the incumbent.
Particularly one you had such -- hopes and the challenger you know he's failed that race.
-- and she had visited the Romney campaign if it winds will be miracle because it is the worst campaign except for the ninety minutes is oblivious of the Johnson's.
The left parts and separate ninety minutes it has been the worst -- industry.
So let me that you've got some praise here from.
My old friends and a garage or your friends and and -- -- -- when they say the margin of corruption is a 100% correct.
Pat Caddell has called it on -- this is a problem gets is two legitimacy.
-- -- pointed you know we wrote about you and I wrote a piece we rooted in political you can find at the end of Friday.
About the question about the selection our own view good selection is not serve to unite the country -- to results of elections do.
But I want you to talk about the legitimacy issue I've mentioned margin crapshoot.
I feel like -- either of these close states who have a more lawyers and more fighting -- provisional ballots and we saw in 2000 how destructive that -- -- I'm hoping we don't have it.
Tuesday that that is my concern my concern is a close result on either side one possibility is Romney winning the popular vote and losing.
The electoral vote another possibility.
Is Romney winning both the popular vote and electoral vote narrowly and in state after state the Obama people.
Claim that a legitimate voters would deny the right.
To cast their ballot.
Either way we could come out of this election with a result.
That is arguably not accepted by about 50% -- the -- And if we have that we could end up more divided more polarized.
-- less likely to solve our domestic and international problems and I'm curious your take especially in light of Libya.
Well I believe -- Libya I mean I believe the president let's assume a moment to take for.
And in the moments presents reelected we're heading into the fiscal -- negotiations.
By the way we're having an election which nothing was on -- -- nothing was decided on which approach to take that was not part of the choice.
With the deep political leaders are lame duck congress -- that in this case would be a lame duck president are not a lame -- president but anyway we currently the president.
Going to a back room to fashion -- deal.
But I have to tell you the issue that's burning out there -- if Romney -- They -- in some senses will be poetic justice for having died on the issue when a -- to Obama's leadership.
Which is the Libyan crisis.
We've seen in the pox fox polls that he was -- the president being lowered ratings on approval on handling that the -- on the economy.
Have to people practice you have an answer believe that they have purposely been covering up.
Not on the American people if that -- -- would have been a contract I don't think Romney should have campaign is -- will be on.
But that they knew the Republicans to raise -- so what happens.
We go into November of -- elected and we will have a Watergate slash Iran Contra sort of thing.
-- all the stuff that they've been trying to sweep under the rug.
Who -- on the clock out to use your phrase.
Will be heard in particularly if the Republicans.
Control both houses.
Pass someone other question which we didn't deal with which was from -- as the.
And here's the question and -- -- we didn't deal with but I think it's worth your while speaking to for a couple minutes.
There's still 56%.
In the state and national polls this -- the question is who they are where they're going how do we assess -- Well the people who were undecided I -- -- -- all the pollsters says Scott Rasmussen the other day.
About this and -- we are undecided people or not.
For the we're we're not voting for Romney or whatever -- -- -- -- -- what they can you do is it came to give -- low marks for the president and approval.
They tend to give middling at best marks from Romney.
A lot of them I think are Democrats are people who feel that they haven't been to presidents and look up to it and I think at this point to him -- them.
They may split either way -- -- -- stay home.
I think that they are basically boaters turned off.
I think more likely to go Obama or Romney I think in the end if they actually go this way given what -- -- if Scottish right now and what I'm saying -- was right -- -- time and holds up.
They will go at least two to one or are wrong and in a very close state could civilian -- Sicily are RWQ.
Taking issue with something you said pat.
That even -- I would which is very close.
The person writing and said.
You know I was close enough that if the undecided break for -- By the way there -- a number reporters at 5% say they're really refuse to answer you know in the the more register poll that studying what they refused to answer who they're voting for.
Right and that could be a most of the department in the -- -- -- have those people I'm realizing every other attitude they have.
Part of what's gonna happen in the senate -- Senate I think the Democrats -- -- hold on unless there is a Romney tied lest we get something that's big enough.
The -- some of those in the Republicans have blown their biggest chance ever.
23 democratic seats up they were needed only four.
They have managed to either by having an incredibly -- candidates.
-- ad agency in Missouri will remember none of their Murdoch who had -- one -- blew up two weeks ago in May lose.
You have had.
Candidates who have not at all but here's a problem the Republicans.
In the Rasmussen polling Gallup polling any polling you look at when you look at the fundamental philosophical question of government.
It is overwhelming to people want less government to more or less spending -- more.
But the Republicans have as a brand is a damaged -- they could not even making national case.
Tulle overlay in the selection is we have advocated before which -- have said look.
If you want more government vote for the -- you want more less spending both Ross.
That would at least in the brain the national debate they've -- each of the senate races the individual races most of the day I have to Democrats and topsy to running like.
They are -- Republicans.
They're getting away with -- right and this is an after millions of dollars into -- because the Republican Party is the stupidest party I've never watched political I'm -- And what do you see how would you assess the Obama campaign in the democratic camp and I think the Obama campaign except from one strategic mistake.
Has -- and on top its strategic mistake.
Which we argued back months and months ago was not providing a vision of a second term.
The president not being able to say I wish -- been better but we can make it better any kind of sense about.
But in terms of fighting they have fought night and day.
They -- -- every resource they have been -- they've driven the narrative but the campaign they have been on the offensive and the Democrats and in the senate and understood.
We must win whatever we must do whatever candidates need to let them do it.
And it still could change but I look at the moment that they're -- -- so I think the Obama campaign has.
-- what has had -- major strategic small but he's been a far better campaign.
-- the Romney campaign which are on the basis we're gonna win because people want Obama in stop to that forever.
Yeah I must tell you I think the Romney campaign has not been -- -- campaign and I.
Absolutely agree with you there I think the Obama campaigns for the good campaign.
From a flawed premise I think running on class -- politics yes -- -- a profound profound mistake but they've done a well.
They don't know well what they've insured which we wrote about him which Michael Gerson wrote in the Washington Post will you were -- Friday about how the two a -- -- when we wrote our PC you're going to her that if the president wanting to have to carry the country part to do it and he has and you know what if he's president it'll be ungovernable.
-- -- -- -- we had -- final question and then we have to close it out will there be any appreciable third party vote Virgil -- Gary Johnson any.
And you've got to make any difference I don't think induce election I think it's you -- brought Obama are not people I don't think.
Four Pat -- and John -- let me thank you we will be back here on.
Wednesday the seventh the day after the election at 10:30 AM -- welcome your tweets your emails your calls.
For Pat Caddell John the -- I'm Doug shown it's been a great election.
Season we have hopefully more programming to -- more interaction and more campaign insiders thanks very much.
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