Power Play 11/05/2012
Deadlock looms in this very close election, national vs. state polling and Benghazi latest
Nov 5, 2012
Doug Schoen, Dan Judy, Doug Thornell
Deadlock looms in this very close election, national vs. state polling and Benghazi latest
Nov 5, 2012
Doug Schoen, Dan Judy, Doug Thornell
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This transcript is automatically generated
It's also good.
-- depth of our shared conviction.
It's made me strive even more to be worthy of it but you're generous support.
And the campaign is our governor.
To speak for the aspirations of all Americans.
I learned as -- as as the governor my state of the best achievements.
Are shared achievements.
-- -- the respect and goodwill.
To go a long way and usually return in time.
That it's now that's on how to conduct myself as president.
I'll bring people together.
I want just represented one party are represented one nation.
The folks in the.
The very top in this country and they don't need another champion Washington.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- All about access and influence.
The people who need a champion.
For the Americans -- are related -- what I get up.
From the Oval Office.
The men and women I -- on the campaign trail ever done.
-- a little taste of the closing arguments Internet.
From Republican Mitt Romney you've seen him before and President Obama you're familiar with his work.
As they wrap up what has been.
About eighteen months really of campaigning in the most negative.
Most expensive six billion dollars will have been spent in this election from ten to post at all levels.
And any election in history and this is power play and I am Chris -- -- and Internet.
We come to you today from inside the mother ship in the very -- the beating heart.
Of the foxnews.com.
And the power play from New York today because it's the election and we've got a call the races for you.
You know we ought to do Internet rather than make you wait until late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday or.
Fourteen days after that when they count provisional ballots in Ohio but we just tell you who's going to win today let's just cut right to the chase.
So we can do that.
Because we have the services today -- Doug shown.
Who is with us -- -- I'm here on Doug's -- he's kindly allowed power play to come up.
Please we have power to where campaign insiders.
Emanates from from your turf we appreciate you not hazing has you down OK we like that.
And I believe.
That if I cry out to the Internet I will find that Dan Judy.
Is in Washington DC is that true.
It's true Chris and I -- -- wow OK things are working out things are working out -- to produce so far.
Let's start with you here's the question and you are a man of the right you're a Republican is this show.
Correct OK -- and Doug is -- Clinton polls -- former Clinton pollster.
He is a Democrat.
So we have if we have fairness and balance -- Around us and Dan let's start with you.
In key battleground states that he needs to win an electoral victory is that not so.
That is and they're really they're two things if you look at most cities battleground states are several where he's ahead Florida North Carolina Colorado is a had a little bit.
But in any sort of the upper mid western states Ohio Wisconsin.
And yet as he needs to win he's a few points behind that's the one thing we're seen consistently.
In the state polls.
The only other thing that's consistent as -- Barack Obama remains under 50% and most of those polls.
And so there's really something in the air and those taxi meter encourage each campaign or more likely had -- -- campaign to continue to wake up in the middle and I can Cole's life.
In Boston and Chicago now let me put that question to you because what Dan says is right but -- it also true that.
I was just talking to -- Shaw who is one of the guys on our decision as well as -- be working with on Tuesday to call these races.
And he did a fantastic scholarly paper he -- the University of Texas.
Did a fantastic scholarly paper the demonstrated the Republicans outperformed.
Pre election polls on average by half a point.
From 1992 through 2010.
If that's so and the race is tied Mitt Romney's got away well he.
He's certainly has a chance to win.
Dan pointed out the challenge because he could win the popular vote governor Romney.
And still lose the Electoral College I think Ohio is -- with three.
Two and a half points and the real clear.
Politics average I've looked it.
Every poll in Minnesota.
And while there have been a couple that have been tied I think it's fair to say that the bulk of the evidence supports.
President Obama winning those states and Pennsylvania's certainly tightened up.
And tightened up substantially.
But it's still 234 points for President Obama so we could have a situation where there's a Serge and I.
Dare say that that is -- the word among white suburban and -- urban voters to governor Romney but it still could not be enough for him to win.
A guy Dan quickly before we let you go what is your electoral vote model -- who's going to win the election and what's -- we're going to -- -- you don't I was.
Titles -- don't like to predict the future we're reasonably good at predicting a president.
And very good at digging well that's been a few good let me present if you have terrorists tomorrow.
I am afraid you know if if enforcing its use I'm gonna say that -- and they governor Romney's past -- the three southern states and also wins Colorado Wisconsin and New Hampshire which puts -- at 271.
And Doug what's yours you know I I think I'm more.
Conventional not because I'm a Democrat I've.
Not been a fan of President Obama out with -- but I think it's -- to win Ohio.
And that was that the presidency -- you added two competing views both either one could be totally correct because guess what.
These are the closest -- is the most deadlocked election that we've ever seen.
Pollsters panel we thank you very much regrets now let us get a taste of what is going out on the campaign trail -- -- As we first talked to our friend John Roberts who is -- Where else would he be Columbus, Ohio because it's the day before the election and so John Roberts is out on the campaign trail covering Mitt Romney.
John what's the scene.
Hey Chris with with governor -- down in Florida and two stops in Virginia today before we go over to his event.
At the Columbus airport without that we would stop -- on an early voting.
Place -- open between 8 o'clock this morning 2 o'clock this afternoon there were thousands of people -- lined up here.
Early voting it's the last day -- it and really here in Ohio it's not Election Day it's.
So far more than one point six million people have come out there early vote and when you look at the numbers there's no question that Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans at this point however a lot of analysis that maybe those numbers are not as good as they were back you know wait that Democrats are -- whereas Republicans are over performers.
For more they were back in -- -- but there really is no way to know.
-- these votes have been cast for particularly since 47%.
Of the early votes have been cast so far Chris are unaffiliated voters you know it's based on your affiliation.
Is based on.
What you -- -- last primary so if somebody has voted in the primary for awhile and they aren't unaffiliated voters you voters are unaffiliated as -- -- could be year old affiliation.
So you can only do it by polling.
And that's pretty unreliable because the samples are so small -- Well I wanna say this before I let you go government you've done.
Such fantastic work out on the trail this cycle and it's you've been such a tremendous asset we thank you for all the hard work and time you put into this -- thank you Chris.
They -- wife Brooke appreciate that and don't forget it Chris it's all about Ohio you know when you look at the various routes that you could take.
To get to 270 I don't see.
How governor Romney could win the White House to be didn't -- Florida.
Virginia and Ohio.
As -- call or a million others there's Nevada out there there's Iowa for potentially.
Wisconsin maybe maybe Minnesota as well but I really think that this is the keys they had merely voting in Florida it's all even up in Virginia.
This state right here the Buckeye State is key to what happens I believe tomorrow night.
John and when you get to Columbus make sure that you tell -- -- the Ohio State fans that they can go pound -- but other than that we think they're great to have a great day John talking I'll let you deliver -- -- -- -- path that I -- commitments and now somebody who probably knows that Ohio State is bad and that you shouldn't root for them is Ed Henry.
I hope he knows that because he's in Wisconsin and you certainly wouldn't want to tell anybody in the badger state that you like the Buckeyes right.
Notre -- -- that never raised nothing like that a Smart and it even the mountaineers of West Virginia a coordinator you hey hey hey look don't say things you can't take back later.
Ed quick play well we we we know that things are about to get crack -- there you're with the president you've been covering the president on this.
Longest most expensive most negative campaign in the history of elections of all time it's been mind blowing.
But as they get down to the end what the president's looking to go and we heard this -- from our panel and we heard this from John Roberts.
Is build a firewall in the upper midwest.
In these Rust Belt states like Wisconsin Michigan and Ohio to block Mitt Romney's path what's the score.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Number two wisely the president ending in Iowa Bruce Springsteen and First Lady Michelle Obama password all started for Barack Obama 20072008.
In the Hawkeye State -- he wants that sort of have an emotional and all of this they say this is the last campaign win or lose if he loses they say he's not running in 2016 is some sort of comeback tour.
Against Mitt Romney -- number one and over -- he's bringing out of his former aide Robert Gibbs Reggie Love are going to be an Air Force One while we're told today at a sort of go along for the ride for the president there's so much hanging in the balance.
If you were to lose tomorrow his signature Health Care Reform as well may go down his it -- -- repeal itself you got receding here JC later in Ohio they're bringing up the celebrities to get the crowds 191000 people here in Madison persons who do and that's all likens.
Bruce was just saying.
Bruce was just saying I like to campaign I was campaigning in 2008.
For Barack Obama.
-- do that hoarse voice is trying to get the crowd behind something else but your voice your voice is understanding and.
Wrong -- we thank you have a great time out there.
All right Internet we were supposed to take a break we're gonna take a break but we're not gonna take a break you know why we're not gonna take a break.
Because Bret Baier is with us right now -- -- Of course you know this here's something you now you know the bread is the host of special report he's the anchor of special report with -- -- appropriately enough.
But of course he is also the helmsman for what will likely be.
The most awesome most also only watched.
Election night in American history it's going to be fantastic you have -- you have all of the drama.
That you could possibly want in terms of telling a story to viewers of the American people going into this a deadlocked race.
So this is an exciting.
-- this is just -- appears I mean it's going to be amazing because.
Everyone is going to tune in to the horse race the race to 27.
And we know how the map stacks up right now but there are so -- many.
Different permutations as you guys have been talking about -- is different states that could really go.
A number of different ways and mean if you see something moved two to three points.
You could have a domino effect that takes out a number of different these back -- battleground states tonight on special report -- little tease tease tease it.
Karl Rove Joseph Trippi their final.
Countdown -- electoral map and we've been doing this since April.
And tonight I say no toss ups I don't want to -- you guys to have maps so in my hand.
I have -- of their maps but he's not -- I'm not showing.
And but we will show you at 6 o'clock tonight on -- I don't wanna give it away but -- says the Republicans are going to win and Joseph says the Democrats are going to -- I wouldn't have.
That -- but you know exhibiting I was just talking to those guys.
-- before they -- your your segment and you know the truth about this election is it's never been closer.
There's -- we've never gone into an Election Day with the polls this close.
But the truth it is.
That Republicans and I was just telling the Internet before you got your Republicans outperform polls historically.
Gary Shaw are one of our pollsters and who's on our decision destined to scholarly work with the University of Texas that showed Republicans -- pre election polls from 1992 to 2010.
I have to -- on average price if that's true.
A lot of these states that are so close you could see -- so there's still room for Romney to win -- fairly substantial electoral margin there is.
And that's part of the domino thing I'm talking about and I think it comes down to as we've.
Been talking about over the past couple of days the battle against.
Enthusiasm on the GOP side.
Verses the machine and organization and whether the Obama organization can get out the vote and all of these states on their side.
And if President Obama wins he will win -- he will win.
With fewer electoral votes than he won in 2008 -- will be the first president to be reelected with fewer electoral votes.
Then he came -- way.
Frequently move late last question before elections -- We win we look at the possibility for a contested election.
We -- it's never been more real and we're talking about.
Ohio so close while till I was standing in the cold in Tallahassee for thirty days on the courthouse -- well but I'm -- going into the election it's never you can we've never seen polls this close however and the big yes that was quite quite a -- -- trust me it was very -- as a -- -- got a lot of stuff -- -- -- where where is hanging Chad.
But on this one.
It in a country that so deeply divided and you have this going on this poses a real challenge for us as a nation if this were to read if -- really ended impacts tomorrow night this is a tough time for the country is.
It's it's going to be a battle if there are lawsuits if there are -- this thing drags on there will be -- and need to.
To wrap it up -- and we saw that in 2000 there was that hunger to get it over with you but both sides were fighting I think both sides will continue to fight I think -- Either way President Obama pulls out this win.
The real question will be what the next week to week look like.
You know go up on Capitol Hill that's a whole different story.
-- I think is the motive power plays forecast would be if if President Obama when you have a -- Washington slightly -- crabby that's crabby with cloudy with a chance of -- Right there we thank you we will be watching you tonight at 6 o'clock and we'll be watching you all night and into the morning.
-- -- 3 AM.
Six -- 3 AM if we're lucky if we're lucky if we're lucky thank you Brad all right.
Okay Internet I -- just just to get your mind right before we go I wanna show you the polls -- we should have the latest polls in your mind as you ready for what's coming next which is a great debate that we're gonna have between.
Sean Spicer from the Republican National Committee and -- are now one of your favorite Democrats but before we go to that lets look at the polls.
The national average from the real clear politics Barack Obama 47 point eight Mitt Romney 47 point four.
But then let's look at the key states in Ohio it's Obama 49 point four Mitt Romney 46 point five let's go to Virginia.
Where you see -- 48 for Obama 47 point 74 Romney and then finally of course.
Pennsylvania why not because it's fun Barack Obama 49 point three that -- 45 point four.
So remember this Internet it's never been -- this close in the polls going into an election.
What does it mean who's gonna win who's got the ground game we got guys who will tell you when we come back.
-- stick around.
And that is what it looks like when people vote.
That is of course people voting early in Ohio because we don't really have to look at much else.
-- for Ohio and in fact Internet I can tell you this if you just told me the vote counts in three counties in the Buckeye State.
And wood counting out by Toledo in Lake County up by Cleveland and in Delaware County outside of Columbus I can tell you right now who the next president was going to be.
I'm that good but I'm gonna -- it and I got to tell -- I'm just gonna keep you guessing because we want you to tune in tomorrow because we have all this coverage we -- set it up so we might as well just go to the trouble of making you watch.
But there's something you don't need to be made what some you'll enjoy -- way.
-- and there it is there's the graphic that says -- tomorrow night starting at 8 o'clock here are new Internet will be the team the Boston mess that you'll have.
Telling you the truth about the election to make sure you do that at 8 o'clock eastern time but now what you should do is welcome.
Into you work screens in your hearts -- Cornell.
He is a strategist Democrat in very good standing at SKD -- -- -- and he's a former spokesman for the he is fair minded and patriotic also fair minded and patriotic -- Sean Spicer who is the communications director for the Republican National Committee.
That makes him make pretty big deal and you both look.
Remarkably well rested and healthy for being at the end of this most horrible horrible election cycle in history so I credit you both with that.
But let us start with you I haven't actually credit the end of the fox make -- yeah I was existing Internet and it caught can -- I -- it -- it looks -- -- -- -- -- just going to say we're big masses you're going to credit Narragansett beer and lots of coffee but that's an either way either way you wanna go with satisfying.
The question gentlemen is this.
And put it to you first dog Democrats have not done as well in early voting.
As they did in 2008 in 2008 it was but tsunami.
They have not done as well that means that they they need to do better on Election Day.
Then they did before generally the way it works -- Democrats when the early vote by a wide margin and then even if Republicans win on Election Day Democrats can still win.
What it what do Democrats need to do between now and then between now and this time tomorrow to make sure that happened.
Well actually Democrats -- are doing pretty well on early voting in Ohio.
You know you we've had early voting in Florida and unfortunately you there is a scene yesterday were folks were what were waiting in line for you know up until 1 AM to vote.
But overall I think Democrats in the Obama campaign feel pretty good about their early early vote numbers.
They also feel really good about their ground game you know they've got about 600000.
Volunteer shift hours plan on Election Day.
And -- -- -- Stated the art get out the vote operation.
They've been building this firm.
Well over two and a half years.
So -- when you look at going into Election Day and we feel like in all of the battlegrounds that matter were either tied or ahead.
And now with our geo TV operation.
Us particularly in Ohio and and and end in com.
In Florida in Virginia and some these states that hope that Romney actually has to win that we're going to be superior.
Why don't you disagree with that shot.
More people vote early on their side.
Where they're down that much work up -- 108000.
Folks on our side so.
Yet you are correct that they traditionally vote by and large early.
They're down in terms of not only what they -- in 2008 but as a percentage of registration so let's -- it.
You know Democrats -- 40% of the registration.
They're only getting 35% of their early vote early were actually over performing both our registration.
And their 2008 numbers he's an Ohio or national actually in Ohio season -- registration in Ohio specifically.
And when you look at nationally in any -- as a partisan registration and to.
The demographics that day.
-- a relative to use and if you -- -- a state like North Carolina we have -- we have I believe about -- 300000.
Early vote ballot advantage there and so I I don't even think North Carolina still came to be honest I mean I think we've put that one to -- for our side we better hope so because if -- can't -- North Carolina and we can't carry the the election and I think that.
If you -- if you're if you're looking at where Romney I think we we will so that's I mean that's gonna happen will will put North Carolina to bed early.
I think when they left they convention in Charlotte that was found the last time he saw.
A prominent Democrat going in Moscow if I guess that stuff first radius and a prominent Democrat always are now down entitlement -- How about a -- out in any death threats.
I -- but look I -- -- wait wait wait wait wait I'm not down there I'm -- down there to separate any fisticuffs that might break out so we're gonna have to we're -- have to keep it clean keep it clean keep the gloves down.
-- really typically aren't so here's what I wanna now.
And you guys are both Smart and you are both.
Good at this even beyond just representing your partisan side.
Here's the question.
Is anybody gonna win this election without Ohio is it possible to win this election without Ohio let's start with you -- -- and it's it's it's yes of course responsibility.
I need Pennsylvania has one more electoral votes in Ohio and -- Pull that out put it -- But I don't think that's gonna matter because I think we're gonna carry Ohio I think we've we've we've probably will carry Pennsylvania -- take Colorado.
There's there's a lot of these other states I think Wisconsin is gonna come very close I think Michigan's gonna surprise some folks New Hampshire is definitely imply.
I was looking very close so I think we're talking about expanding the map.
I think -- 300 more.
-- -- what say if you Ohio must win or not must -- out.
Well Democrats can win Ohio and stimulate but is it -- without it.
Yeah absolutely -- different pathways for each candidate but the fact is is that Democrats can win Ohio I don't think that they have.
I don't think Republicans are really seriously I'm gonna compete -- strongly Pennsylvania comes in if you look at Iowa Wisconsin.
I think those are looking very good for Democrats and I think I Nevada and right there you have about 271.
Okay -- Chris I'm very quickly go ahead chuck I was gonna say and look at what Jim -- put -- a video couple months ago talking about the multiple -- -- THE seventy on the Obama side.
They talked about expanding the map and places like Arizona Missouri Indiana.
And they put states like Pennsylvania Wisconsin Minnesota and Michigan.
All on the scene of Obama's seamless places where they are now because they're on defense and I think more on all fronts expanding -- guys we got to go city enthusiasm -- is huge -- this.
We've got to go we thank you for all your help this whole election cycle your great work your patriotism everything that you've done we really appreciate it keep it up and we'll see on the other side Brothers.
Thanks thanks a -- I'd -- -- Now.
We have some business to transact with -- -- -- that.
So the first thing as and I want to show him because he's already here is Jonathan Hunt is waiting to tell you stuff.
And Jonathan Hunt is is pretty cool because normally like there's a restraining order there's a variance that doesn't let me get this close to the building.
And what Jonathan said was like about form -- watch him.
When he's here so that's true and he's going to be talking to you very soon.
But before you do that.
I want to -- -- -- some power points today you need some power points because you're getting so bad on clothes and here's today's -- points don't vote.
Everybody always says go vote everybody has to go vote stop it if you don't know enough to have an opinion or an idea.
Feel free to stay home yes you have a patriotic obligation to go vote but that means being an informed voter not a knucklehead.
And I want you to think about your first PowerPoint.
And that is purple fingers you remember the purple fingers in Iraq.
When people finally had the chance to go vote in a free and fair election.
What human dignity that brought what an incredible lift.
To the collective spirit of this world to see people engaging in the free exercise of their democratic rights it is an awesome thing it is a great thing.
Don't squander that -- -- Voting the wrong way which is to say voting without being informed and knowing the race is that -- gonna voted and you cannot know everything on the ballot so feel free to skip.
So here's number two.
Incumbents love low information voters they love when people just go vote for the sake of going to vote because most of the time they're gonna go with the name they know and that's the guy in office they hope you go and do that.
So that's the second point.
And here's the third point and I want to just reinforce this.
Do the right thing and stay home if you have not studied up and you do not know the candidates and you don't really have an opinion you're not helping if you go vote now you Internet.
Our -- well versed -- informed enough to be watching this so you are not probably in that category but if you have a friend who is a knuckle head and thinking about going to vote on informant late.
Tell them to stay home.
So that's my rant for today.
-- -- And I will be back with you tomorrow for Election Day will be all over the place it's going to be great.
You'll enjoy that now enjoy seeing you and you can do all of that and you'll be doing -- in fact with Jonathan Hunt.
Starting now but also at 8 o'clock tomorrow so have fun with that we'll see you tomorrow and -- that.
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