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How did social media influence the election’s direction?

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    Shane D’Aprile and David Paleologos examine the general election

  • Duration 5:38
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I think I -- told you a little bit -- back -- how this at this election appears to be.

Have changed a bit perhaps the first real election of the social media air the first real election.

All but the everybody on the cell phone and very few people on -- era which complicates.

Polling.

Didn't do the pollsters given that they've been all over the map over the last few months.

-- a publicist have to come up with a new model next time around.

They may.

And we may we've changed the -- with the technology is -- uses the split sample what's called a split sample which is.

Cellphone and land lines some use live cause some news VI BR methodology which is basically were.

The robo polling.

But the safest way to look at it is to look at the head to head numbers of -- incumbent.

Barack Obama and also the margin now -- I mean personally.

Think the head to -- numbers are really important number to look at.

There's a -- that candidate is polling below 50% it does show a sign of weakness it doesn't mean that they're fixed that that number about.

For example in states like Virginia Florida North Carolina.

Those states that have had number of Barack Obama has been -- fixed that 4846.

Weeks.

Now it's very possible that the undecideds.

Don't show up and it's possible that.

Barack Obama could get from 48 jumped two points in a day to fifty.

But the probabilities change and so when you're looking at states like Ohio where those head to head numbers 49 point three it's really close.

In New Hampshire it's a little higher it's about 49 point 549 point six so.

You're really talking about tenths of a point and -- also you also need to look at who else is on the ballot.

You know a lot of people don't realize there is serving candidates on the Ohio about this one local press and Richard Duncan who's an independent.

Who will actually draw some votes away and that makes it very difficult for pollsters who just -- Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on their ballot test question.

So there are a lot of variables out there for sure.

I'm gentlemen before before we wrap it all up here what -- bag -- congress.

Shame to you first you see any change at all in the balance of power that.

I think it's unlikely at this point I had to start with the house Democrats in the 25 seats in order to a gain a majority in the house I think it's quite safe to say that that's just about an impossibility on Tuesday.

A a couple of months ago I think Democrats were.

Fairly bullish on their chances -- but right now I mean -- -- even need it the most optimistic a private estimates I get from.

From Democrats and regarding what happens in the house on Tuesday is a gain of a handful of seats.

In most likely in the single digits so I think.

-- the house is pretty clear cut.

The -- also there's so many toss -- races here so assuming that are legitimately close -- that being said there are some that this senate contests out there that.

-- -- state like Indiana for example that Republicans really should of one.

And -- months ago you might have thought they would've won and Republicans here are fairly down.

At least the ones that I will admit this privately on -- senate candidate in Indiana right now so I'll admit the Mac has become a little more difficult for a Republican takeover of the senate.

Still I actually think that maybe you're not -- to see.

Any.

Change of control in -- the house or the senate on Tuesday.

But -- dated for about two things would you agree with that -- no change no change in the balance of power.

And if you get any sense at all I don't know if you've done any polling at all in this.

That perhaps the country and having always sort of like to split perhaps -- Aden in the late Aaron structured.

May be thinking this time around let's -- -- to one side because there -- you ever get anything done anymore.

It's a great point in Massachusetts for example when we used to elect governor -- up until Deval Patrick.

We had sixteen straight years believe it or not Massachusetts of Republican governor so.

We had bill weld and -- -- -- and of course Jane Swift and Mitt Romney.

In we have us a -- -- also and that's the argument -- Republican Scott Brown is making that.

He'll be more of a consensus builder a look at both sides of the issue both -- the issue and not the party.

In our last poll in the senate race we had Democrat Warren.

Leading away with what winning by a with a 53%.

Number.

For Elizabeth Warren but there are other polls or -- came out today showing brown plus one.

And the race even so we'll see we'll see what happens tomorrow.

All right and -- in one quick sentences gentlemen.

An early night for all of us tomorrow or a long night stretching into possibly a long week.

Does Cheney I first I think a very long night stretching into possibly along we know -- thanks very much of that optimistic news that David.

I'd I'd agree I'd say a long night and I think a lot of it will hinge on Ohio.

The early returns.

Will come -- before Cuyahoga County.

So it might give some people.

A little bit of anxiety one way or the other or exuberance.

But Ohio will be.

Keep all right we shall see well we will be here for all of it thank you gentlemen.

-- April editor of campaigns and elections magazine and David how -- -- this.

Director of Suffolk university's political research center fascinating -- told you about the enjoyed tomorrow.

Thank you thanks guys.

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