Taking a final look at the electoral map
Rove, Trippi break down the numbers
- Duration 7:14
- Date Nov 5, 2012
Rove, Trippi break down the numbers
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We are now just one day from what could be one of the closest presidential elections in history and we will see.
Whether all those trips to the key battleground states paid off let's find out where the Electoral College map stands right now joining me as always.
-- -- former bush senior advisor and democratic strategist Joseph Trippi.
Okay here's the latest map.
You can see from the info on the key.
Red is Romney blue Obama than the pinkish states those are lean Romney light blue lean Obama and the yellow states those -- tossup states within the margin of error.
These are all based on polls from the last two weeks one start.
On what changed and this map and then we're going to get to your final maps OK let's start here for a first hole I record -- 31 states.
Ten states showed movement towards Romney thirteen states -- movement towards Obama but only one change in status Wisconsin by less than a point.
Three points for -- -- -- for Obama.
To four points for Obama which Russa from tossup to leaning Obama but it shows how tight this thing is.
And how little movement -- really as a team and the bike flipped and it from less than three and a half to over three and a half it changes status the only -- smallest number of changes of status of we've had.
Since April significant.
-- in Wisconsin.
Does not much to me one point is it could be -- but I mean what it says to me is that scene and he really did freeze the race I mean really did take the focus off you have the record number of polls.
But nothing really changes and a one point move in Wisconsin.
Although I'm sure as a Democrat in the upon -- people who are happy to have it go that way.
At one point it doesn't mean anything.
Does -- -- so -- Obama 184.
Of votes plus four states and bringing his direction for total of 231.
It leads Mitt Romney with a 180 in his column and two states have -- his direction for a total of 206.
What people are watching these polls just.
Ever so slightly.
Change day to day some of them they go up 67 points.
Depending on the state to -- They look at these polls and say I just don't get it to.
Well and they look there's a great deal of skepticism with which we ought to look at the state level polls -- national polls tend to be run by larger reputable groups -- state level polls.
Sometimes you got some fly by night operators and sometimes you got some people likely.
And one register poll that they really understand the state to intimately and do a good job and you know we've we've that's why we average these all together and and look we have eight states -- a 101 electoral.
College votes where it's too close to call in a reality.
We got six other states that it could easily show up and somebody else's column tonight but this is the most polling arguably we've seen in a presidential election is it right.
-- and a look no no no question and take it isn't even close.
Just simply in the last week we've got twice as many national polls.
As we had eight years ago last time I looked at this we were running dependent on the week three or four times as many state level polls.
As we did eight years ago the other thing is look there's there's a thing called margin of error of -- poll shows Obama at fifty he could be -- 53.
And with a three point martyr he could be at 47.
So when you have a -- it's it's both numbers it's his number of -- Romney's number can be off by three points each so you can.
It's actually can be six points -- party and it could be even bigger because as we know like NBC Wall Street Journal.
Poland Ohio heading nine point advantage of Democrats in the poll that's bigger than -- was no way and I have yet to find anybody who thinks that.
Well that twelve is going to be a more democratic here than -- -- bottom line for Romney to win Tuesday in these polls have to be wrong.
Some polls have to be wrong a little because the races -- close remember take a look at the national polls that just to just simply in the last.
In the last week 23 polls the average of all together.
48 point 34 -- 48 point one for Obama that's as of pro margin that are out there at 10 o'clock this morning so it is.
Dead even all nice -- long night exciting -- -- OK we said.
We want to know toss ups -- notes also sought out battle all right here we go Joseph your first.
Predictions I've got here's your map.
I've got 303.
Electoral vote or Obama they include arm swing states and I think -- winner of the Colorado Iowa.
Ohio Virginia and New Hampshire might -- the races -- Somebody is right about the turnout models and if Obama's model was right he's gonna win a lot of these swing states may even win Florida if his models right.
If he's wrong if he Romney models correct we're likely to see what Carl's -- is gonna show so -- -- toss -- tortured math book personal wanna be on record object to the toss ups there's a bunch these states are tossup and in Nevada I put it in the democratic column.
It's a toss that all right and there it is that we should move out of rhythm today the is that you made the rules and credit -- -- -- -- through this outrageous president I get.
285 for Romney to 53 for Obama I have Romney carrying all the McCain states.
Plus taking the Indiana Florida North Carolina Virginia Ohio.
New Hampshire and Colorado but look I think Nevada and Wisconsin.
And potentially Pennsylvania are -- -- states critically Nevada up for grabs -- Nevada will be decided by a couple of may -- a 101000 votes on either side of significantly through and I know we've got so there are some true toss ups that we can argue about but really we agree on all -- like 46 states that -- roughly.
-- -- only four states on these maps that we disagree about I think that's because again.
If you believe the turnout model that most of the polls are showing that I think you're gonna see Obama win by 300 yards -- -- five states different states yes if Colorado Iowa Virginia Ohio and New Hampshire otherwise we tend to agree when we're forced to let.
Let's wrap up what this we did this iPad happen people submit their maps to compare it Joes and Carl's so.
We wanted to pick some that were closest.
The closest to actually to car was -- I'll -- who had the exact same map.
So as you put that one up we're going to send marks on the what are we sending -- cinemanow autograph copy in my book.
Kmart and everybody else -- and -- -- -- -- good and the closest to Joe's map is Alex Thompson.
Alex Thompson has a map that agrees with me on every state except for Colorado.
Which he he would show Barack Obama winning 294.
Not the 303 that I've picked out.
He has a point about Colorado I think Karl yeah early vote for Republicans lost the early vote for years ago -- winning the early vote this time around.
The state is also trended slightly to the right hand you know it's been very close in the polls and most of the time -- and sought I'm gonna send him a copy -- my book.
As well as as it yeah I'll be sending him a copy of of my book but again I think.
I think it is between 294 -- 303 on the democratic side OK guys as always thank you have a big day tomorrow.
And the guys everybody can keep submitting maps.
And -- lomb will keep putting the lives of the maps that -- closest to the -- and I'll cinema autograph book plate -- -- -- and slapped him in the front of poker and we're waiting for your map will be looking forty your math maybe -- get a bucket at the expense.