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Thanks jealous of Bill O'Reilly in the campaign -- twelve segment tonight lets you down -- Washington or about Charles Krauthammer is telling the world.
A whole bunch of things about presidential election to listening to the factor this evening.
-- at -- -- is segment you promise me you're gonna give a prediction you've already given one I want all the gonna hold that.
But the bigger picture to you.
What is convinced you about.
Your prediction is -- Well look you can do their calculation.
As Karl Rove does -- and I believe -- -- I mean I agree with.
His analysis from the micro view state after state.
But I want to do it from the macro view people say -- you know the national vote doesn't count but technically yes but it's very important understanding what's happened.
Last Monday a week ago.
Romney had won this race is that it ended on Monday night correct he was up 456.
In the national polls.
You can't be up that much and nationally and not win the electable of the college I don't care how you slice it -- dice it.
Then something happens then you get the October surprise.
Which is devastating to Romney in this sense and we know they -- Derrek Lee.
Because in the national -- where Romney was up 456.
He goes to zero to minus one essentially.
Number why he becomes irrelevant he was very presidential debates Obama was small -- reversed he becomes irrelevant in the storm.
Number two Obama.
Who plays a commander and chief that picture of the situation room.
Now where was he -- -- guys either the situation room separate issue nobody's gonna and it had passed it.
But he looks like the commander in chief number three and the biggest ones.
What is that Christie bear hug here's a guy who's -- most smash mouth in your face Republican.
Bear hugging the president praising him how he cooperates the week -- -- Obama has had.
Where if the independence has been that he's been seen.
As the most partisan president of the last half century.
Obama care passed without one vote on the other side as simply one -- -- on three counts.
And there's huge.
Gift -- Obama had a storm I knew this storm.
As you said.
Look -- I'm.
I'm a psychiatrist but I don't play one on TV.
So I can't tell you what's inside his head but I can't say what the effect was -- that's the kind of advertising Obama could -- purchase.
We tend -- million dollars when he gets in the picture.
The most partisan opponent hugging him and praising him.
Now but but he is why I still -- Romney's gonna win.
That affect blue -- only three days whenever you have a catastrophe.
The solidarity -- -- just three days and then you get the reality setting in.
All the stories a lot of stories you know about it personally all the stuff about the abandonment and inefficiencies.
All of this stuff though it doesn't written down on Obama the way it did.
Are bush and Katrina because Obama's a Democrat I Katrina as an antidote to bush was a Republican.
And the media are -- played -- nonetheless.
It stopped the sandy effect and you can see it now in the nationals if you look at the last -- war.
Romney is now coming -- back he's up.
He's either tied or plus one so I see -- and that's as of Saturday she -- Saturday Sunday.
Today and tomorrow where I think Romney comes back he doesn't come all the way back he's not going to be plus five.
But the fact he's coming back has an effect and here's where it has the effect.
The the the back the battleground states.
If they're all very close all nine or ten of them.
And you get a swing and the national of 1% or two either way.
Then it's a bunch of dominos that all of them will go one way which is why it look so bad for Romney.
On Saturday or Friday.
But now that I think he's coming back somewhat nationally.
You're getting an even in effect and I think they're gonna split half and half.
And there are pads easy ones for Romney to win electorally.
-- as I predict a rebound in the national poll is continuing which I think it is.
Is there anything that Romney could have done.
To get himself back in the public die with a very strong message because as you know.
As it being a sports fan he went to the prevent defense -- -- chances.
Kind of -- in ground game -- Is there anything that he could have done to put himself up there beside of course the big interview tonight on Monday Night Football well other.
One still a hurricane hit there was nothing he could do before.
He could have done stuff but remember if you didn't see a hurricane coming in the future an act of god I mean -- lucky stroke for Obama.
The Romney strategy which was a very as you say was a very conservative line.
A very defensive line was working because he was the momentum he gotten -- debates.
While I was slowing was to a continuing and it was clearly gonna carry him over the top.
But in retrospect if you knew there was going to be this of that -- you would have been that would stop us well what you would have done -- in the third debate you would have its Libya where he went week.
He could have hit Obama on Libya in the third debate could -- -- after he never really touched them.
And the media -- -- had an excuse to stay away from it.
That I think would have been devastation for Obama.
And distraction for Obama and that I think would have sealed it but Romney played it safe -- his -- -- -- 7 October surprise.
That's where it is I think the winner of Ohio wins the election.
Do you have any special feeling for that state because I don't.
I think -- Romney will take Florida and Virginia and North Carolina based what I've -- I agree.
Oh wow I can't can -- I -- an Ohio goes.
To Romney for the reasons Karl said if you look at the early polling Obama is way behind were very wise.
Four years ago OK and -- the other thing is you see the intensity factor in all the polls everywhere on Romney side.
And the Republicans tend to be somewhat.
Under represented in the post you put them all together Romney wins Ohio one more state and he's president and I draws we appreciate it everybody will be.
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